LEBANON: PEDERSEN SAYS NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002683 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016 TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER LE SY IS SUBJECT: LEBANON: PEDERSEN SAYS NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO CONFRONT HIZBALLAH Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4(d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) The Ambassador and poloff met with the UNSYG's Personal Representative for Lebanon Geir Pedersen and UN Senior Political Affairs Officer Salman Shaikh on Augest 16 for a frank discussion over lunch at the Ambassador's residence. (Note: Pedersen asked that his comments be kept very close hold. End Note.) Pedersen stressed that the March 14 movement is making a mistake in openly confronting Hizballah about its weapons now, and should instead be concentrating on the important "Phase One" of deploying the LAF to the South in conjunction with UNIFIL-plus. He agreed with the Ambassador that GOL action on the monitoring of ports, airports and border crossings to block arms smuggling should not be delayed by PM Siniora, even if it means forcing the issue with Hizballah now. Noting with concern the threats against March 14 movement members, Pedersen said that Marwan Hamadeh would be leaving Lebanon for a short stay in Paris until things calm down. Pedersen added that Terje Roed-Larsen would arrive in Lebanon on August 18, and that SYG Annan may come on August 25. End Summary. UNIFIL-PLUS DEPLOYMENT MOVING AHEAD -------------- ¶2. (C) Pedersen said that the Lebanese Armed Forcs (LAF) and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) held a second meeting on 8/16 at UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, and would have another the following day. According to Pedersen, the lead UNIFIL-plus contingent of French troops would arrive in the southern Lebanon on August 21. Although Lebanese Defense Minister Murr has been feeding UNIFIL some exaggerated numbers, including that the LAF would be moving "400 tanks" to the South, Pedersen sensed that the GOL is committed to the deployment. (Note: The Cabinet approved the deployment on the evening of 8/16. End Note.) LEAVE THE ARMS UNTIL LATER -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Pedersen lamented that some March 14 Cabinet ministers viewed the implementation of UNSCR 1701 as "a sprint rather than a marathon," and that some ministers -- he mentioned Nayla Mouawad by name -- had not even bothered to read the resolution text carefully enough to realize "it's not about disarmament in the immediate term." The March 14 group, instead of concentrating on the historically significant step of a successful LAF deployment in the South up to the border, where it has not been in control in over 30 years, were focused on fomenting a confrontation with Hizballah over disarmament. Pedersen said he had spoken to his Hizballah contact, Wafiq Safaa, just before the lunch and had received his assurance that GOL authority would be respected in the South even if the group keeps its arms. Pedersen, perhaps overly-confident in Hizballahi assurances, proclaimed this as "a huge step." ¶4. (C) Pedersen said the resolution focuses on getting the LAF and UNIFIL-plus into the South, and the Israelis out, and only deals with disarmament of militias secondarily. He argued that a confrontation with Hizballah now over disarmament threatened to cause a collapse of the government, which would scuttle the whole deal. Pedersen said he has been shuttling around Beirut advising March 14 members to keep quiet about disarmament for now, urging them instead to, "Get the army to deploy first. Don't lose this opportunity." ¶5. (C) Pedersen stressed that disarmament is not of primary moment, and said that stopping arms smuggling is an unambigous, central and immediate obligation in UNSCR 1701, and that the Israelis will not be expected to fully lift the blockade until the GOL has an effective monitoring mechanism in place at ports, airports, and border points. Pedersen assured the Ambassador that he is driving this point home in all of his meetings with the Lebanese. In this context, PM Siniora's decision to replace the army with the Hariri-controlled Internal Security Forces at some parts of the airport is an important first step, though the airport is still under the nominal control of a known Hizballah sympathizer. Aware that the issue of getting international BEIRUT 00002683 002 OF 002 support to monitor the Lebanese-Syrian border might well provoke the early "confrontation" with Hizballah that he seeks to avoid, Pedersen said that nevertheless the smuggling issue has to be dealt with now. HAMADEH SHOULD "GET OUT" -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Telling the Ambassador to "be careful," Pedersen said he is worried about security conditions in Lebanon. He met with Marwan Hamadeh on the morning of 8/16 and described Hamadeh as "shaken" by the recent article -- tantamount to a death threat -- claiming he had passed information via Ambassador Feltman to the Israelis on the whereabouts of Hassan Nasrallah. Pedersen thinks Hamadeh should "get out" of Lebanon for a spell, and claimed that Hamadeh will be leaving for Paris soon for a two-week respite. (Note: Hamadeh, seeming far from "shaken," held an impassioned press conference on the evening of 8/16 at which he responded to Bashar al-Asad's threatening 8/15 speech, and said that the Lebanese would fight Syrian influence through "writing and speaking," and not through "car bombs and intelligence networks." End Note.) TERJE ON HIS WAY -------------- ¶7. (C) Pedersen said that the UNSYG's Special Representative for UNSCR 1559 implementation Terje Roed-Larsen will arrive in Beirut on the evening of 8/18 and will meet with PM Siniora, Speaker Berri, Defense Minister Elias Murr, and LAF Commander General Michel Sleiman. (Note: The Ambassador will dine with Larsen on 8/18. End note.) Larsen also plans to travel to Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to shore up regional support for Lebanon. Pedersen added that the initial report on UNSCR 1701, due on 8/18, will say simply that LAF/UNIFIL-plus deployment is moving ahead and that the UNSYG is further studying the situation. Pedersen said that SYG Annan plans to travel to Lebanon on 8/25 and, at this point, intends also to go to Damascus. FELTMAN