LEBANON: PM SINIORA DISCUSSES TOP PRIORITIES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002620 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2016 TAGS: IS LE MOPS PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM SINIORA DISCUSSES TOP PRIORITIES WITH P-5 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 14, the first day of the cessation of hostilities, Prime Minister Siniora convoked the Ambassadors of the UNSC Perm-5. Siniora requested support to provide temporary steel bridges that will help the return of displaced Shia to the south, and to remove the "siege" from the airport and seaports. Siniora did not respond satisfactorily to concerns that the airport and seaports were used to smuggle arms and people in the past. He noted that he will work to strengthen security at the ports but did not want to "go after ghosts" because he is confident that the vast majority of smuggling occurs at the border with Syria. Regarding the return of displaced Shia, Siniora stated that providing temporary steel bridges is the most important thing the P-5 nations could do. Ambassador Feltman cautioned that temporary steel bridges could be destroyed by Israel if they appear to be facilitating the resupply of weaponry to Hizballah. Asked about disarming Hizballah, Siniora stressed that the LAF, UNIFIL, and Hizballah could not all be "in the same bed together" and that Hizballah would gradually "disappear" from the south. He did not provide substantive steps on how this would happen. Instead he will wait for Speaker Berri, who is in talks with Hizballah, to report back to him on August 15 or 16. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Siniora opened the meeting with the Ambassadors from the United States, France, United Kingdom, and Russia, along with the Chinese charge, by thanking them for their efforts on behlaf of the cessation of hostilities. He cautioned that much work has yet to be done and described his immediate priorities: facilitating the return of displaced Shia to the south by providing temporary steel bridges and removing the "siege" from the airport and seaports. Siniora requested that the Ambassadors contact their respective governments to identify how they can contribute to these priorities. Failure to provide support would be a "dishonor to the commitment" that the P-5 nations made to the GOL. Siniora asked for timely responses. Opening the Airports and Sea Ports -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador Feltman asked Siniora to outline the measures GOL is taking to prevent smuggling of arms and persons via the airport and seaports, citing operative paragraphs 14 and 15 of UNSCR 1701. Siniora immediately stated that "99.9 percent" of the smuggling that occurs in Lebanon is done by land via the border with Syria. No smuggling occurs at the airport and seaport because the smugglers are "not stupid." Siniora expressed confidence in airport and seaport procedures to prevent smuggling. He noted that he will work to strengthen security at the ports but did not want to "go after ghosts" by expending excess time and effort on this. ¶4. (C) French Ambassador Bernard Emie insisted that GOL must reaffirm through explicit actions that the airport and seaport will not return to the status quo of pre-July 12. Ambassador Feltman told Siniora that part of the U.S. role is to convince Israel that the airport and seaport will be adequately monitored and controlled by the GOL, but the U.S. itself must be convinced of the seriousness of GOL efforts. At this point the U.S. cannot do so because it is not clear what steps are being taken to deter the smuggling of arms and persons. Ambassador Feltman declared that there is a smuggling problem at the airport and it is something GOL must think about now. British Ambassador James Watt added that there is no serious thinking about securing the borders and what was done in the past was obviously not effective. ¶5. (C) PM Siniora agreed that Lebanon could not afford to go back to the staus quo, including at the airport and seaport. He stated that the Lebanese people made "disinvestments of their lives" in terms of human casualties, destroyed infrastructure, and economic disaster. He said the GOL will take the necessary measures on the airport and seaport, but did not provide substantive answers. Interrupting the discussion, he stepped aside to arrange a follow-on meeting with Minister of Defense Murr and Acting Minister of Interior Fatfat immediately following the meeting with the Ambassadors to discuss this issue. BEIRUT 00002620 002 OF 003 Return of Displaced -------------- ¶6. (C) Siniora predicted that providing temporary steel bridges is the most important thing the P-5 nations could do to help displaced Shia return home. He insisted that immediate action was needed because only after those who can return have done so, can the GOL get a sense of the number of people who will not be able to go home. ¶7. (C) French Ambassador Emie asked who would be the point of contact on this issue. Siniora advised that the Minister of Public Works and Transport Mohamad Safadi would take the lead and delegate responsibilities to other institutions as needed. He also identified Lebanon's Committee for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) as the lead agency in reconstructing the large bridges that were destroyed. Siniora explained that he has taken steps to reduce the government bureaucracy for procuring contractors and receiving external funds for reconstruction. The High Relief Agency will be the sole GOL paying agent. ¶8. (C) Siniora expressed gratitude to any organization that seeks to contribute to Lebanon's reconstruction efforts. However, he insisted that each organization must define and coordinate its activities with the United Nation's overall coordinator David Shearer. ¶9. (C) Russian Ambassador Sergei Boukine asked if it was safe for the displaced to begin returning to the south, citing reports that thousands of Shia had already begun the trek. Siniora announced that there would be a public statement for people to be mindful of unexploded ordnance on the roads. He acknowledged that the return of the displaced immediately was something he and Parliament Speaker Berri agreed to and people cannot be prevented from returning to their homes. ¶10. (C) Ambassador Feltman warned that the large number of returning Shia could provide a human shield for Hizballah. He added that Israel might become suspicious that Hizballah fighters may be infiltrating the south along with the displaced. He cautioned that temporary steel bridges could be destroyed by Israel if they appear to be facilitating the movement of Hizballah fighters with the returning displaced. Worse, without any measures being taken to stop arms smuggling from Syria, Hizballah might be resupplied across the foreign-funded temporary bridges, making them a target for Israeli attacks. Without addressing the weapons issue, Siniora commented that both the facilitation and restriction of displaced to return home would cause problems and that allowing them to go home is the best option. UNIFIL, LAF, and Hizballah Won't Fit in the South -------------- ¶11. (C) Russian Ambassador Boukine asked when the LAF would be deployed to the south. Siniora responded that it depends on when UNIFIL-plus will be ready. Siniora said he recently spoke with the leaders of countries that may contribute soldiers, including Pakistan, Morocco, Indonesia, and France, to ensure that they are committed to sending troops. ¶12. (C) Ambassador Boukine told Siniora that the presence of Hizballah in the south remains a concern for contributing nations. Siniora replied that UNSCR 1701 provides that a cease-fire would come into effect when UNIFIL and LAF reach south of the Litani River, regardless of Hizballah's presence. Siniora stressed that the LAF, UNIFIL, and Hizballah could not all be "in the same bed together" and that Hizballah would gradually "disappear" from the south. ¶13. (C) When pressed on how Hizballah would disappear, Siniora said Hizballah did not prevent the LAF or UNIFIL from confiscating any weapons that they find. He added that Speaker Berri is in talks with Hizballah and would report back to him on August 15. Russian Ambassador Boukine reaffirmed that Lebanon's internal problem with Hizballah will continue to create new problems with Israel. ¶14. (C, Siniora acknowledged that there are many people in Lebanon who will be upset if Lebanon returns to the status BEIRUT 00002620 003 OF 003 quo ante with Hizballah. He assured the Ambassadors that he has given Hizballah the option to disarm now, disarm after the Israeli withdrawal, or hand over its weapons to LAF. ¶15. (C) At the end of the meeting Siniora pulled aside Ambassador Feltman and told him that disarming Hizballah would have been easier with the promise of Shebaa Farms. It would have made "all the difference" he claimed. Ambassador Feltman reminded Siniora that he should focus on procedures to demonstrate that the airport and seaport are more secure from smuggling so that they could be re-opened. ¶16. (C) Comment: The meeting with Siniora was stiff and awkward, with the enigmatic Chinese and the Russian Ambassador not as concerned with Hizballah and arms smuggling as the P-3 representatives. While we found Siniora's answers largely unsatisfactory, we will see him privately on Tuesday or Wednesday for a more detailed, and frank, discussion. End comment. FELTMAN