TGLE01: UNREP WITH OMINOUS MESSAGE FROM HIZBALLAH

S E C R E T BEIRUT 002509 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2026 TAGS: PREL MOPS PTER KISL LE SY IS SUBJECT: TGLE01: UNREP WITH OMINOUS MESSAGE FROM HIZBALLAH Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) Geir Pedersen, the UN Secretary General's Personal Representative for Lebanon, contacted the Ambassador on 8/1 to say that he had received an "alarming message" from his "usual contact." (Note: Pedersen's usual contact is Hizballah's Wafiq Safa. End note.) The message was initially reassuring: The contact told Pedersen that, upon the Israeli announcement of a 48-hour lull in aerial activity, Hizballah likewise stopped firing rockets into Israel. Hizballah is willing to extend its pause in rocket attacks if Israel extends the 48-hour period. ¶2. (S/NF) But, the Hizballah contact said, it appears to Hizballah Israel had lied. The aerial bombardment has not stopped. Cutting Pedersen off when he tried to explain that the Israelis never said it would stop completely, the contact said that the Israelis imply de-escalation but instead escalate. Hizballah, in turn, would escalate, too, unless Israel stopped. Hizballah's rocket capabilities are intact, and Hizballah will have a "strong answer" for the Israeli actions. ¶3. (S/NF) Pedersen interpreted his contact's comments as suggesting that Hizballah would fire a longer range, more powerful missile. Pedersen said that he passed the message via UN channels to the Israelis, in hopes that the Israeli ground assault is scaled back so as to avoid provoking the Hizballah reaction that could "engulf the region," in Pedersen's words. He hoped we could do the same. ¶4. (S/NF) COMMENT: For several days, Pedersen has been convinced that all the pieces are in place for a major escalation of hostilities that will take the region into the unknown. He believes that Hizballah wants to show off its long-range rockets and seeks an Israeli excuse to use one. Pedersen is worried that Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki's visit to Beirut today might have tilted Hizballah even further in the direction of firing upon Tel Aviv. So Pedersen is obsessed with trying to persuade the Israelis to back down to avoid giving Hizballah a pretext for escalation. Intellectually, Pedersen knows that the Israelis are unlikely to want to back down, giving Hizballah both a victory and the retention of its ability to keep much of Israel within rocket range. But he sees major escalation as the more immediate danger and the outcome he believes we all should want most to avoid. End comment. FELTMAN