TFLE01: UNSYG REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN SEES ISRAEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002491 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2016 TAGS: IR IS KPKO LE MOPS PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: TFLE01: UNSYG REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN SEES ISRAEL GETTING BOGGED DOWN Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) In a July 28 meeting with the Ambassador and econoff, UNSYG Personal Representative Geir Pedersen said that he saw Israel getting bogged down in its military campaign. Based on information Pedersen was receiving, Israel's ground incursion was not successful, and a full-scale invasion would have no clear benefits. Pedersen had met with Hizballah officials and advised them that they had a small window for a cease-fire as long as they don't escalate. Pedersen suggested to the Ambassador that a provisional cease-fire might work as long as Israel does not wait until an international force deploys to stop firing. End summary. "ISRAEL STUCK" -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) On July 28, the Ambassador and econoff met with UNSYG Personal Representative to Lebanon Geir Pedersen and UN Senior Political Affairs Officer Salman Shaikh at the UN House. Reviewing recent developments, Pedersen said that Israel was "stuck." Israeli forces cannot easily move forward. Hizballah is not like the Palestinian militias the IDF faced in Gaza and the West Bank; it is capable and organized. The ground incursion at Bint Jbeil is not working, so the only option left is a full-scale invasion, the utility of which would be unclear. (Note: Pedersen's comments were made just after local press reports claimed that Israel had withdrawn from Bint Jbeil and Maroun el-Ras. On July 29, UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar informed econoff that Israeli ground forces were still inside Lebanon in the Bint Jbeil and Maroun el-Ras area. He could not confirm whether Israeli forces were in the center of Bint Jbeil. End note.) ¶3. (C/NF) Pedersen said he told Hizballah officials that they have a small window. If Hizballah escalates the fighting, it will destroy chances for an early cease-fire. Pedersen sensed that Hizballah was ready for cease-fire because it considers itself "ahead" in the contest with Israel. Hizballah can argue (for now) that it has stalled if not defeated the Israeli army inside Lebanon. Yet, inexplicably in Pedersen's view, Hizballah has continued to launch rockets on northern Israel. In fact, Hizballah, as Pedersen admitted, had just escalated the conflict by firing more powerful rockets onto Afula. "What more do they want?," asked Pedersen rhetorically. PROVISIONAL CEASE-FIRE -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Pedersen saw a provisional cease-fire as an option. Once that provisional cease-fire is in place, it would be immediately followed by a quick deployment of a multinational force under UN mandaet to the south, along with the LAF. But Israel would have to agree to a cease-fire that takes effect before the international force deploys in the south. If Israel waits until the international force deploys, the cease-fire would fall apart and the situation will worsen. Pedersen explained that a provisional cease-fire should be a more attractive option to Israel because it would allow Israel to defer the Shebaa Farms issue. Pedersen did not envision any international force disarming Hizballah; that would be left to the LAF, with the political backing of the GOL and the assistance (but not leadership) of others. FELTMAN