TFLE01: UNSYG REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN SEES ISRAEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002491

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2016
TAGS: IR IS KPKO LE MOPS PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: TFLE01: UNSYG REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN SEES ISRAEL
GETTING BOGGED DOWN


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C/NF) In a July 28 meeting with the Ambassador and
econoff, UNSYG Personal Representative Geir Pedersen said
that he saw Israel getting bogged down in its military
campaign. Based on information Pedersen was receiving,
Israel's ground incursion was not successful, and a
full-scale invasion would have no clear benefits. Pedersen
had met with Hizballah officials and advised them that they
had a small window for a cease-fire as long as they don't
escalate. Pedersen suggested to the Ambassador that a
provisional cease-fire might work as long as Israel does not
wait until an international force deploys to stop firing. End
summary.

"ISRAEL STUCK"
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2. (C/NF) On July 28, the Ambassador and econoff met with
UNSYG Personal Representative to Lebanon Geir Pedersen and UN
Senior Political Affairs Officer Salman Shaikh at the UN
House. Reviewing recent developments, Pedersen said that
Israel was "stuck." Israeli forces cannot easily move
forward. Hizballah is not like the Palestinian militias the
IDF faced in Gaza and the West Bank; it is capable and
organized. The ground incursion at Bint Jbeil is not
working, so the only option left is a full-scale invasion,
the utility of which would be unclear. (Note: Pedersen's
comments were made just after local press reports claimed
that Israel had withdrawn from Bint Jbeil and Maroun el-Ras.
On July 29, UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar informed
econoff that Israeli ground forces were still inside Lebanon
in the Bint Jbeil and Maroun el-Ras area. He could not
confirm whether Israeli forces were in the center of Bint
Jbeil. End note.)


3. (C/NF) Pedersen said he told Hizballah officials that
they have a small window. If Hizballah escalates the
fighting, it will destroy chances for an early cease-fire.
Pedersen sensed that Hizballah was ready for cease-fire
because it considers itself "ahead" in the contest with
Israel. Hizballah can argue (for now) that it has stalled if
not defeated the Israeli army inside Lebanon. Yet,
inexplicably in Pedersen's view, Hizballah has continued to
launch rockets on northern Israel. In fact, Hizballah, as
Pedersen admitted, had just escalated the conflict by firing
more powerful rockets onto Afula. "What more do they want?,"
asked Pedersen rhetorically.

PROVISIONAL CEASE-FIRE
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4. (C/NF) Pedersen saw a provisional cease-fire as an
option. Once that provisional cease-fire is in place, it
would be immediately followed by a quick deployment of a
multinational force under UN mandaet to the south, along with
the LAF. But Israel would have to agree to a cease-fire that
takes effect before the international force deploys in the
south. If Israel waits until the international force
deploys, the cease-fire would fall apart and the situation
will worsen. Pedersen explained that a provisional
cease-fire should be a more attractive option to Israel
because it would allow Israel to defer the Shebaa Farms
issue. Pedersen did not envision any international force
disarming Hizballah; that would be left to the LAF, with the
political backing of the GOL and the assistance (but not
leadership) of others.
FELTMAN