TFLE01: UNSYG PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002476

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016
TAGS: IS KPKO LE MOPS PBTS PTER
SUBJECT: TFLE01: UNSYG PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN
SAYS DE-ESCALATION URGENTLY NEEDED

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C/NF) In a July 26 meeting with the Ambassador and
econoff, UNSYG Personal Representative to Lebanon Geir
Pedersen urged an immediate de-escalation to the fighting
even if a cease-fire takes some time. He warned that the
humanitarian situation and violence could spiral out of
control in less than 14 days, including expansion of the
geographic scope of the fighting. Pedersen suggested a
de-escalation deal whereby Israel agrees to not attack
targets north of the Litani River, while Hizballah agrees to
stop launching rockets into northern Israel. This would
leave a contained zone of conflict in southern Lebanon.
Regarding the Israeli airstrike on a UN post, Pedersen said
it was clearly intentional given that it was a long-standing,
clearly marked post and Israel used precision guided
munitions. Pedersen assessed Hizballah's strategy as waiting
out the clock until Israel wanted a cease-fire. Nonetheless,
Hizballah was open to a cease-fire if Israel stopped its
bombing. The status of the Shebaa Farms was a key issue,
according to Pedersen, in any cease-fire package. End
summary.

START WITH DE-ESCALATION
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2. (C/NF) On July 26, UNSYG Personal Representative Geir
Pedersen and Senior Political Affairs Officer Salman Shaikh
came to the Embassy to meet the Ambassador and econoff
regarding cease-fire efforts. Pedersen, following a meeting
with Speaker Berri's foreign affairs adviser Ali Hamdan, said
that a de-escalation is urgently needed. It appears as if a
cease-fire deal is not going to happen soon, so the
international community must at least try to contain the
violence before it spirals out of control. Hamdan had warned
Pedersen that in about 14 days the large numbers of
internally displaced persons (IDPs) will start creating
instability in Beirut and the rest of Lebanon. Then the
debate will not just be about instability in the south, but
in the whole country. Moreover, the geographic scope
internationally could expand.


3. (C/NF) Pedersen hoped to achieve a de-escalation with a
compromise deal between Israel and (indirectly) Hizballah.
He proposed that Israel would agree to cease all military
strikes north of the Litani River if Hizballah agreed to stop
firing rockets into northern Israel. This would restrict the
combat to the south for a short period until a comprehensive
cease-fire deal is reached. The Ambassador replied that he
did not see how such a deal would benefit either side.
Hizballah would still have to face Israeli destruction of
Shia villages south of the Litani as well as displacement of
its constituents. Meanwhile, Israel would be creating a safe
haven for Hizballah in the rest of Lebanon without any
guaranteed achievement of its goals. Pedersen accepted this
critique, but emphasized that there must be some
de-escalation soon, whatever the form.

STRONG SUSPICION ISRAELI
HIT ON UN POST WAS DELIBERATE
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4. (C/NF) Turning to the July 25 Israeli airstrike on a UN
post that killed four UNTSO observers, Pedersen said that
UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Alain Pellegrini was convinced it
was intentional. The UN post had been there for 30 years, it
was clearly marked, and UNIFIL had repeatedly warned the IDF
that its shells were hitting the post. In addition, Pedersen
noted that the UN post was hit with precision guided
munitions. Pedersen continued that he had been researching
the 1982 Israeli invasion and was of the opinion that the IDF
sometimes takes actions without the approval of Israel's
political leadership. Pedersen suggested that the strike may
have been intended to derail the talks in Rome and discourage
nations from offering troop contributions.

HIZBALLAH WAITING
OUT THE CLOCK
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5. (C/NF) Pedersen said that Hizballah officials he is in
contact with are portraying themselves as confident. They
appear comfortable with confronting Israel on the ground.

BEIRUT 00002476 002 OF 002

Pedersen said that the Hizballah officials keep emphasizing
the time factor in meetings with him. They talk about how
much time (and casualties) it would take Israel to take the
border villages and then to take Tyre. If Israel advances,
they say, then Hizballah will regroup and counter-attack.


6. (C/NF) Hizballah does appear open to some kind of a
cease-fire though. Hizballah officials denied to Pedersen
that they have rejected an international stabilization force
as reported in press. Hizballah has not taken a position
yet. In addition, Hizballah officials tell Pedersen that
Hizballah wants a cease-fire, as long as Israel stops bombing
Lebanon. They promised to stop firing rockets if Israel
stops its bombing.


7. (C/NF) Pedersen reported that Ali Hamdan believed that
Hizballah could not be defeated militarily. As such,
Pedersen speculated that Speaker Berri was warming to the
idea of a comprehensive cease-fire package as long the status
of the Shebaa Farms was a part of it. In any event, Pedersen
commented, Israel has to lower its expectations. The
Ambassador said that any cease-fire package must corner
Hizballah from the domestic political context.
FELTMAN