MGLE01: PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL BELIEVES ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001805

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2016
TAGS: IS KDEM LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL BELIEVES ELECTORAL
LAW IS CRITICAL ELEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Maronite presidential hopeful Nassib Lahoud said he
believes that adoption of Lebanon's draft electoral law will
hinge on how much political capital Saad Hariri commits to it
-- as well as a decision by Michel Aoun and Hizballah's
Hassan Nasrallah to only mildly resist it. The reform minded
Lahoud, cousin of President Emile Lahoud, is cautiously
optimistic the draft will become law without too many
changes. He believes it will be the most important piece of
legislation debated in the Parliament this year. If adopted
in its present form, the law could well break the monopoly
Hizballah exerts on Lebanon's Shia community and lead to the
emergence of pluralistic political parties. On regional
developments, Lahoud worried about the increasing influence
of Iran in Lebanon. He thought that increased tension with
Iran will lead to instability in Lebanon since Hizballah is
in its thrall. End summary.

BELIEVES PROSPECTS FOR ELECTORAL
REFORM ARE GOOD
--------------


2. (C) The reform-minded former MP Nassib Lahoud met with
poloff on June 5 in Beirut. Lahoud, who is widely considered
to be one of the leading presidential candidates if Lebanon's
Parliament were to remove President Emile Lahoud, said that
the just-released draft electoral law is the essential
element in Lebanon's transition to democracy. Passage of the
law as written would break the "stranglehold" that
established political blocs now hold on the country. He is
convinced that the introduction of proportional voting and
constraints on outside campaign financing will curtail the
power of Hizballah and the Future Movement, with a lesser
impact on Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and Walid
Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party.


3. (C) Even though he feels it will reduce the number of
delegates who owe political allegiance to Saad Hariri's
Future Movement, Lahoud believes that the pro-reform Hariri
should and will support the proposed statute, because it will
strengthen the ranks of the pro-reform coalition. Lahoud
said he has heard that political advisors across the spectrum
have been calculating the electoral impact of the proposed
mixed system of qada and muhafaza voting districts. The
consensus opinion is that the pro-reform forces will benefit
overall.


4. (C) Lahoud stated that strong support from Hariri, as
leader of the pro-reform movement, is essential because the
parochial interests of several Sunni delegates have already
arisen with ill-informed and premature criticism of the draft
law. He hoped that Hariri would return soon to Lebanon to
lead pro-reform forces in the coming parliamentary debate.


5. (C) Regarding Michel Aoun, another Maronite presidential
aspirant, Lahoud said that the former general's
overconfidence leads Aoun to believe that his 60-70 percent
support in the Christian community is solid and would hold
firm through any of the proposed electoral changes. Lahoud
said that he expects the FPM parliamentary forces to be
mildly supportive of the measure in the upcoming debate, but
will look for opportunities to introduce changes that would
benefit the Maronite vote.


6. (C) From his discussions with a range of political
leaders, Lahoud is convinced that Speaker Nabih Berri will
schedule a special session of Parliament to debate the draft
law. Without explaining the reasoning of such a move, he
also said that Siniora's Cabinet would expeditiously refer
the draft law to Parliament with few if any changes. In this
scenario, he implied the real test will take place in the
legislature.


7. (C) According to Lahoud, passage of an effective law
would be enhanced by greater public support for electoral
reform. Unfortunately, public debate in the past week has
been surprisingly light. He said the Electoral Commission
had performed admirably in taking disparate confessional
concerns into consideration and producing a balanced
compromise. Although he was cautiously optimistic that the
law would be enacted in something close to its original form,
Lahoud said he would work diligently in the coming weeks to
generate public momentum in favor of it.

BEIRUT 00001805 002 OF 002



REGIONAL ISSUES PRESSING ON LEBANON
--------------


8. (C) Lahoud, even though he believes electoral reform is
central to creating a fully democratic system, said the more
pressing concern to most Lebanese is Iran's confrontation
with the West over its nuclear ambitions. While hoping for
constructive engagement and a diplomatic resolution, Lahoud
believes Tehran could easily misjudge the situation and
resort to actions which will be felt in Lebanon. He
recognizes that Hizballah, along with Hamas, have become two
of the primary external levers the Iranian regime can use to
destabilize the region. He is concerned that Iran may pull
these levers. Lahoud said that last year's withdrawal of
Syrian troops from Lebanon and an increased flow of funds
from Iran has effectively shifted the line of command for
Hizballah from Damascus to Tehran.


9. (C) Lahoud assessed the May 28 hostilities along the
Blue Line as Syria having had the most to gain from
Hizballah's action, but that Iran had to give its assent to
Hizballah. Lahoud theorized that Hassan Nasrallah would
never have chanced the loss of public support outside the
Shia community that the fighting produced; thus,the attacks
across the Blue Line had to have been ordered from Syria and
approved by Iran.


10. (C) The heavy Hizballah/IDF exchanges of May 28, Lahoud
continued, would extract a heavy price from the myth of the
"resistance." The Christian community in particular was
losing patience with the lack of sovereign control over
events which could draw Lebanon into large scale hostilities.
Lahoud was convinced that Hizballah is finally beginning to
realize that the bills for Iranian support are coming due.
The events along the Blue Line, as well as the national
anxiety created by Hizballah's June 1 demonstrations in
Beirut, are reducing Hizballah's margin for error. Lahoud
said it will be interesting to see whether Nasrallah reacts
aggressively or defensively when the March 14 coalition
presents its security strategy at this week's national
dialogue meeting.
FELTMAN