MGLE01: FORMER UNIFIL OFFICIAL VIEWS RECENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001772

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: EFIN IR IS LE MOPS PTER
SUBJECT: MGLE01: FORMER UNIFIL OFFICIAL VIEWS RECENT
HIZBALLAH BLUE LINE ACTIVITY

REF: BEIRUT 1690

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a June 1 meeting with econoff, former UNIFIL
spokesman Timur Goksel said he believed Hizballah was
involved in the early morning Katyusha barrage that began the
fighting in southern Lebanon on May 28 (reftel). For Goksel,
the rocket strike was too accurate not to involve a Hizballah
role. Goksel assessed that Hizballah wanted to get in one
last Blue Line attack before the start of the summer in order
to avoid hurting Lebanon's tourism season at its height.
Goksel did not see the Israeli destruction of Hizballah's
newly constructed fixed positions as a major loss for
Hizballah. He opined that Hizballah maintains those
positions and others on the Blue Line as a part of its
psychological warfare against Israeli forces. Goksel also
believed that Hizballah had modified its Katyusha rockets and
unmanned aerial vehicles to be noisier to enhance the
psychological impact. During the meeting, econoff had a view
of a Hizballah donation collection checkpoint along the
Corniche in Beirut. Goksel explained that the site provided
ample opportunity to collect donations from drivers as well
as tour buses. End summary.

SHOULDER SEASON BEST
TIME FOR KATYUSHAS?
--------------


2. (C) On June 1, econoff met with former UNIFIL spokesman
and AUB professor Timur Goksel to hear his analysis of the
Blue Line fighting on May 28 (reftel). Goksel believed that
Hizballah was involved in the morning Katyusha barrage that
started the day's cycle of fighting. The rockets accurately
hit a hilltop Israeli military base. Katyusha rockets are
difficult to aim accurately, especially if launched from
unfamiliar territory, said Goksel on the basis of his nearly
quarter century of experience in southern Lebanon.
Therefore, he reasoned, Hizballah was either directly
involved or provided close support.


3. (C) Goksel commented that Sunday's fighting was very
dangerous because both Hizballah and Israel were firing on
targets that were near to civilian areas. Hizballah
historically absorbs the losses of fighters killed in action,
but responds strongly to the deaths of Lebanese civilians.
Goksel pointed out that Hizballah was playing the game very
carefully on May 28 by limiting its own fire even as Israeli
jets pounded its positions. Goksel assessed that Hizballah
wanted to launch an attack just before the summer, in order
to avoid hurting the Lebanese tourism season. Goksel
expected Hizballah to withhold any new attacks until
September or October.

HIZBALLAH'S PHONY WAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE
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4. (C) Goksel expected Hizballah, however, to continue its
psychological warfare against Israeli forces along the Blue
Line. He saw the string of newly constructed posts as a part
of Hizballah's mind games with the Israelis. The posts were
meant to suggest a permanent presence of Hizballah's militia,
but offered no real military value. The new posts simply
made easier targets for Israeli forces, Goksel said.
Therefore, he did not view the Israeli destruction of those
posts on May 28 as causing any significant damage to
Hizballah's military capabilities. Goksel also disputed
claims by Israeli officials in the press that Israel had hit
Hizballah's command center in the south. "We (UNIFIL) could
never find it; it is probably in a car," Goksel explained.


5. (C) Hizballah has long looked for ways to remind the
Israelis that they now hold the ground Israel withdrew from
in May 2000. Unarmed Hizballah observers shadow Israeli
border posts and take pictures and write notes whenever an
Israeli patrol passes. Goksel believed that this
surveillance was mostly for show because as soon as the
patrol passed, the Hizballah observer would sit back down and
sometimes doze off until the next patrol came. Hizballah
also set up empty surveillance camera cases along the Blue
Line. Goksel realized this when he saw that the cameras did
not move, and noticed that a few didn't have wires leading to
them.


BEIRUT 00001772 002 OF 002



6. (C) Goksel also revealed his theory that Hizballah
intentionally makes some of its ordnance noisier in order to
make an impression in Israel far greater than the actual
blast. For example, he said Hizballah had modified Katyusha
rockets to be louder in flight. In addition, Hizballah
apparently modified the engine of the Mirsad-1 unmanned
aerial vehicle to be as noisy as possible. Goksel had
observed Hizballah fighters practicing with expensive model
airplanes as early as eight years ago, presumably in
preparation for the flight of the Mirsad-1. He explained
that since the purpose of the Mirsad-1 was to scare Israel
and impress Lebanon, and not for meaningful military
reconnaissance, the extra-noisy engine made sense.

HIZBALLAH IS PASSING THE HAT FOR PIJ
--------------


7. (C) During econoff's meeting with Goksel, which took
place at a cafe in the Raoche neighborhood along Beirut's
Corniche, Hizballah set up a roadside donation collection
checkpoint outside the cafe. Approximately five men and
teenagers set up a tent, a table, and chairs alongside
Lebanese and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) flags. The men
donned smocks with the PIJ flag on it. Goksel explained that
Hizballah was fundraising this week on behalf of the PIJ,
presumably in response to the assassination of Abu Hamzeh on
May 26. A Hizballah flag was visible on the table.


8. (C) Goksel, who lives in the neighborhood, said that
Hizballah routinely collects donations in the area even
though it is mostly Sunni and one of the most upscale parts
of Beirut. The Hizballah members hold clear plastic boxes
for drivers to throw money into. On the week of May 25
(Liberation Day),Goksel said he saw the collection boxes
jammed with money. Goksel said that the site of the Raoche
collection checkpoint is governed not only by all the
vehicular traffic on the road, but also due to the fact that
so many tour buses stop in the area. He has observed
passengers from tour buses from Jordan and his native Turkey
stop and give donations to Hizballah. In the hour and a half
econoff observed the Hizballah checkpoint, only a fraction of
passing cars gave donations, but the Hizballah members did
not harass those who did not give.

COMMENT
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9. (C) The Hizballah positions destroyed by the Israelis on
May 28 may have had limited military significance, but the
press coverage appeared to embarrass Hizballah. Hizballah
engaged in a one-sided battle with Israel and lost the fruit
of six months worth of labor. End comment.
FELTMAN