MGLE01: FORMER UNIFIL OFFICIAL VIEWS RECENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001772 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016 TAGS: EFIN IR IS LE MOPS PTER SUBJECT: MGLE01: FORMER UNIFIL OFFICIAL VIEWS RECENT HIZBALLAH BLUE LINE ACTIVITY REF: BEIRUT 1690 Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a June 1 meeting with econoff, former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel said he believed Hizballah was involved in the early morning Katyusha barrage that began the fighting in southern Lebanon on May 28 (reftel). For Goksel, the rocket strike was too accurate not to involve a Hizballah role. Goksel assessed that Hizballah wanted to get in one last Blue Line attack before the start of the summer in order to avoid hurting Lebanon's tourism season at its height. Goksel did not see the Israeli destruction of Hizballah's newly constructed fixed positions as a major loss for Hizballah. He opined that Hizballah maintains those positions and others on the Blue Line as a part of its psychological warfare against Israeli forces. Goksel also believed that Hizballah had modified its Katyusha rockets and unmanned aerial vehicles to be noisier to enhance the psychological impact. During the meeting, econoff had a view of a Hizballah donation collection checkpoint along the Corniche in Beirut. Goksel explained that the site provided ample opportunity to collect donations from drivers as well as tour buses. End summary. SHOULDER SEASON BEST TIME FOR KATYUSHAS? -------------- ¶2. (C) On June 1, econoff met with former UNIFIL spokesman and AUB professor Timur Goksel to hear his analysis of the Blue Line fighting on May 28 (reftel). Goksel believed that Hizballah was involved in the morning Katyusha barrage that started the day's cycle of fighting. The rockets accurately hit a hilltop Israeli military base. Katyusha rockets are difficult to aim accurately, especially if launched from unfamiliar territory, said Goksel on the basis of his nearly quarter century of experience in southern Lebanon. Therefore, he reasoned, Hizballah was either directly involved or provided close support. ¶3. (C) Goksel commented that Sunday's fighting was very dangerous because both Hizballah and Israel were firing on targets that were near to civilian areas. Hizballah historically absorbs the losses of fighters killed in action, but responds strongly to the deaths of Lebanese civilians. Goksel pointed out that Hizballah was playing the game very carefully on May 28 by limiting its own fire even as Israeli jets pounded its positions. Goksel assessed that Hizballah wanted to launch an attack just before the summer, in order to avoid hurting the Lebanese tourism season. Goksel expected Hizballah to withhold any new attacks until September or October. HIZBALLAH'S PHONY WAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE -------------- ¶4. (C) Goksel expected Hizballah, however, to continue its psychological warfare against Israeli forces along the Blue Line. He saw the string of newly constructed posts as a part of Hizballah's mind games with the Israelis. The posts were meant to suggest a permanent presence of Hizballah's militia, but offered no real military value. The new posts simply made easier targets for Israeli forces, Goksel said. Therefore, he did not view the Israeli destruction of those posts on May 28 as causing any significant damage to Hizballah's military capabilities. Goksel also disputed claims by Israeli officials in the press that Israel had hit Hizballah's command center in the south. "We (UNIFIL) could never find it; it is probably in a car," Goksel explained. ¶5. (C) Hizballah has long looked for ways to remind the Israelis that they now hold the ground Israel withdrew from in May 2000. Unarmed Hizballah observers shadow Israeli border posts and take pictures and write notes whenever an Israeli patrol passes. Goksel believed that this surveillance was mostly for show because as soon as the patrol passed, the Hizballah observer would sit back down and sometimes doze off until the next patrol came. Hizballah also set up empty surveillance camera cases along the Blue Line. Goksel realized this when he saw that the cameras did not move, and noticed that a few didn't have wires leading to them. BEIRUT 00001772 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Goksel also revealed his theory that Hizballah intentionally makes some of its ordnance noisier in order to make an impression in Israel far greater than the actual blast. For example, he said Hizballah had modified Katyusha rockets to be louder in flight. In addition, Hizballah apparently modified the engine of the Mirsad-1 unmanned aerial vehicle to be as noisy as possible. Goksel had observed Hizballah fighters practicing with expensive model airplanes as early as eight years ago, presumably in preparation for the flight of the Mirsad-1. He explained that since the purpose of the Mirsad-1 was to scare Israel and impress Lebanon, and not for meaningful military reconnaissance, the extra-noisy engine made sense. HIZBALLAH IS PASSING THE HAT FOR PIJ -------------- ¶7. (C) During econoff's meeting with Goksel, which took place at a cafe in the Raoche neighborhood along Beirut's Corniche, Hizballah set up a roadside donation collection checkpoint outside the cafe. Approximately five men and teenagers set up a tent, a table, and chairs alongside Lebanese and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) flags. The men donned smocks with the PIJ flag on it. Goksel explained that Hizballah was fundraising this week on behalf of the PIJ, presumably in response to the assassination of Abu Hamzeh on May 26. A Hizballah flag was visible on the table. ¶8. (C) Goksel, who lives in the neighborhood, said that Hizballah routinely collects donations in the area even though it is mostly Sunni and one of the most upscale parts of Beirut. The Hizballah members hold clear plastic boxes for drivers to throw money into. On the week of May 25 (Liberation Day),Goksel said he saw the collection boxes jammed with money. Goksel said that the site of the Raoche collection checkpoint is governed not only by all the vehicular traffic on the road, but also due to the fact that so many tour buses stop in the area. He has observed passengers from tour buses from Jordan and his native Turkey stop and give donations to Hizballah. In the hour and a half econoff observed the Hizballah checkpoint, only a fraction of passing cars gave donations, but the Hizballah members did not harass those who did not give. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The Hizballah positions destroyed by the Israelis on May 28 may have had limited military significance, but the press coverage appeared to embarrass Hizballah. Hizballah engaged in a one-sided battle with Israel and lost the fruit of six months worth of labor. End comment. FELTMAN