MGLE01: MINDEF MURR OFFERS THEORY ON BLUE LINE

S E C R E T BEIRUT 001735

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TEXT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2026
TAGS: PTER MOPS KPKO PREL KPAL LE IS JO
SUBJECT: MGLE01: MINDEF MURR OFFERS THEORY ON BLUE LINE
VIOLENCE

REF: BEIRUT 1690

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary and comment: In a 6/1 meeting with the
Ambassador, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Elias
Murr said that Hizballah was the primary instigator of
Sunday's Blue Line incidents (reftel) but had seriously
miscalculated, believing that the Israeli response would be
limited to Palestinian targets. Murr's colorful conspiracy
theory weaved together multiple local and regional players.
He said that he did not believe that Israel had assassinated
the Majzoub brothers in Sidon that served as the pretext for
the Sunday rockets. Describing them as key Hizballah-PIJ
liaisons very close to Hassan Nasrallah, Murr claimed that
Jordanian intelligence had reasons for wanting the Majzoubs
dead. As for the sniper attack that reignited the fighting
on Sunday after a tentative ceasefire, Murr pointed the
finger to Fatah, claiming that Fatah hoped for the Israeli
attacks on Hizballah facilities as a way to get at PIJ.
While Murr's theories at times seem to cross the line into
pure fantasy, we are reporting them as indication of the
mystery that still hovers over the 5/28 Israeli-Lebanese
skirmish. End summary and comment.


2. (S) The Ambassador asked Murr for his analysis of the
5/28 incidents (reftel). Citing what he claimed were many
internal confidential reports, Murr said that he concluded
that Hizballah had seriously miscalculated in provoking
Israel. While Hizballah was trying to put a brave face on
5/28, in fact Hizballah fixed infrastructure had been widely
damaged. By launching the rocket attack on Israel early in
5/28, Hizballah assumed Israel would only attack Palestinian
positions, given the linkage between the 5/28 rocket and the
5/26 assassinations of the two Majzoub brothers in Sidon
(widely -- although perhaps erroneously -- assumed to have
been carried out by Israel). But Israel took the opportunity
of the sniper attack later in the day to wipe out newly
constructed Hizballah positions. Murr expressed satisfaction
in Israel's "smart" response, which "badly hurt" Hizballah.


3. (S) The Ambassador asked Murr whether he thought, then,
that the initial rocket fired toward Safed, Israel, was fired
by Hizballah, as his explanation indicated. "No, PIJ," Murr
corrected himself. The Ambassador expressed disbelief,
noting that, while PFLP-GC and Hizballah had rockets, PIJ was
not assumed to have them. Counseling the Ambassador to look
at PIJ as a "subsidiary" of Hizballah in Lebanon, Murr
claimed that PIJ operatives received a Hizballah rocket to
fire. Hizballah wanted to maintain some deniability, but
Murr was sure that Hizballah had in fact facilitated PIJ's
cross-border attack, especially given the fact that the
attack occurred in an area under Hizballah control. The
whole point was to simultaneously show revenge for the
Majzoub brothers' death, scare Israel by demonstrating
longer-range rockets, and provoke an Israeli attack that
would give credence to Hizballah's case for the "resistance"
during the upcoming National Dialogue session. But the key
was the PIJ connection, so that the Israelis would
concentrate on Lebanese targets.


4. (S) This worked until the sniper fire from southern
Lebanon into Israel, Murr said. Hizballah had not counted on
the massive, targetted Israeli retaliation, which Murr said
"scared" Hizballah. The Ambassador asked who the sniper was.
"Fatah," Murr responded with confidence. The Ambassador
again expressed disbelief, wondering how a Fatah operative
could move about freely in Hizballah controlled territory.
Fatah's motives, Murr said, were to get the Israelis to
attack Hizballah facilities, as a way to get the Israelis to
attack PIJ's Lebanese ally. The Ambassador noted that the
intra-Palestinian fighting now seemed to be concentrated on
Fatah-Hamas rivalries, with PIJ largely out of it. Why would
Fatah want an attack on Hizballah, since Hizballah would
surely figure this out and engage PIJ against Fatah at a time
when Fatah should be concentrating its energies against
Hamas? Murr insisted that he had credible information
suggesting that Sunday's sniper was indeed from Fatah.


5. (S) The Ambassador asked Murr if he believed Israel had
indeed killed the Majzoub brothers on Friday (5/26),the
assassinations that provided the pretext for Sunday's
fighting. No, Murr responded. Taking his conspiracy
theories to a new level, he said that he suspected Jordanian
intelligence had a role. The Ambassador again expressed
disbelief. Murr initiated a long explanation into the
importance of the Majzoub brothers. More Hizballah than PIJ,

he said, they were in fact Hassan Nasrallah's personal
liaisons to PIJ and to other terrorist groups. They were
among the innermost circle of Nasrallah's advisors, Murr
said, with Nasrallah "shocked" by their deaths. As for the
Jordanians, they knew that the Majzoub brothers had, on
behalf of Hizballah, provided funding to terrorists operating
in and through Jordan. This included some help to the 2005
Jordanian hotel bombers, Murr said. The Ambassador expressed
deep skepticism that Jordan would risk opening up a battle
front with Hizballah by sending assassins to Lebanon. Murr
acknowledged that "more study is needed," but he expressed
confidence in his theory. But the main question now before
Lebanon, Murr said, is "what will Hizballah do next? They
were hit hard. They must do something to show their own
people they are strong, but what will it be?"
FELTMAN