MGLE01: CIVIL SOCIETY PREPARES FOR RELEASE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001733

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ELA AND NEA/PI
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR ZEYA
TUNIS FOR MEPI - MULREAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI EAID LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: CIVIL SOCIETY PREPARES FOR RELEASE OF
ELECTORAL LAW

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) As the national commission charged with drafting a
new electoral law has been conducting its work, civil society
activists have been developing an eight-point platform for
promoting electoral reform. All eight points, including
proportional representation and an independent electoral
commission, reportedly reflect what is already in the draft
law. A consortium of civil society organizations will meet
after the draft's public release to develop a public
education program for electoral reform. (The text of the
draft law was submitted by the commission to Prime Minister
Siniora on June 1.) The Lebanese Association for Democratic
Elections (LADE) has already begun lobbying Parliamentarians
-- who will decide the ultimate fate of the draft law -- with
mixed results so far. LADE's new head warned us that
Parliament must come to a decision on the electoral law by
June 2007, at the latest, in order for reforms to be
implemented before the next parliamentary elections,
scheduled for 2009. He said that the international
community, and the United States in particular, should use
its considerable influence in Lebanon to support electoral
reform. End summary.

BOUTROS TO PRESENT DRAFT LAW TO SINIORA
--------------


2. (C) On May 31, emboffs met separately with Walid
Fakherddine, newly-elected secretary general of LADE, and
Oussama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy
Studies (LCPS),to discuss civil society efforts to promote
the forthcoming draft electoral law. Both confirmed that the
chairman of the electoral reform commission, senior statesman
Fouad Boutros, would present the draft to the government on
June 1. (Note: It was delivered to the prime minister
today, as expected.) Safa added that, according to electoral
reform commission member Paul Salem, copies of the draft law
in Arabic, English, and French will be available to the
public in the next few days.

CIVIL SOCIETY PREPARATIONS
--------------


3. (SBU) Fakherddine told Embassy staff that LADE has
established a coalition of civil society NGOs, including LCPS
and the Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA),dedicated to
supporting the electoral reform effort. This coalition has
agreed to an eight-point platform in support of: 1) a
proportional electoral system; 2) absentee voting; 3) an
independent commission to oversee the elections; 4) lowering
the voting age to 18 and the candidacy age to 22; 5) a quota
for women's representation; 6) regulations on the use of mass
media; 7) regulations on campaign finance; and 8) voting
access for the disabled.


4. (C) Fakherddine told us that they plan to launch a
grassroots and outreach campaign in the coming year to
promote the above-mentioned reform goals. Fakherddine said
that all eight goals are reflected in the draft law. "With
three LADE members on the electoral commission, including two
former secretaries-general" (Paul Salem and Ziad Baroud),
Fakhreddine said, "we made sure these issues would make it
into the law."


5. (SBU) Oussama Safa, later that day, said that this
summer's public awareness campaign would make a special
effort to reach university students and returning
expatriates. He specifically mentioned setting up booths and
advertisements in Beirut's Rafiq Hariri International Airport
to publicize electoral reform. Winning the support and
interest of expatriate Lebanese, he explained, would be an
important way to reach local political leaders, so many of
whom depend on the support of Lebanese expatriates across the
Middle East, North America, and Europe.


6. (SBU) Fakherddine told emboffs that the civil society
coalition will meet again next week, after the public release
of the draft law, to review the text in detail and draft a
unified curriculum for public education campaigns.

BEIRUT 00001733 002 OF 003


Fakherddine said that LADE has already been involved in this
effort for some months. He showed Embassy staff
sophisticated booklets that LADE has published for
distribution to Lebanese citizens and political leaders.

POLITICIANS NOT KEEN ON REFORM ...
--------------


7. (C) Fakherddine said that, in meeting with over 75
parliamentarians during the past few months to build support
for electoral reform, most displayed very little interest in
electoral reform, "They either told us that we would need 20
years to achieve electoral reform, or that now is not a good
time." If the MPs displayed any interest at all, he said, it
was only in how they could gerrymander districts to ensure
more seats for their own parties or blocs. Fakherddine said
that Prime Minister Siniora is virtually alone among the
political elite in his dedication to genuine electoral
reform.


8. (C) This lack of political support is dangerous,
Fakherddine said, because Parliament has only one year to
pass a comprehensive new electoral law in order for it to be
fully in effect when parliamentary elections next take place
in 2009. This is because many of the most important items in
the draft law, including the independent electoral
commission, expatriate voting, and campaign finance and media
regulations, will take two years to develop and implement.
"So, if we want to have this law ready for the 2009
elections, Parliament has to pass the law by June 2007 at the
latest. Issues such as absentee voting and an independent
commission will require several months of administrative and
logistical preparation," he said.


9. (C) Fakherddine warned that Speaker of Parliament Nabih
Berri will try to delay the discussion of the draft law once
the Siniora cabinet endorses it and submits it to Parliament.
"If, by June 2007," he said, "the Parliament does not
endorse the electoral law, it will be impossible to implement
reform. If Parliament postpones discussion until 2008, the
debate will be limited to electoral districting."
Fakherddine also added that reform of the Constitutional
Court, the media law, and the law on political parties would
be essential measures as well.

...BUT TIME IS ON OUR SIDE...
--------------


10. (C) LCPS's Oussama Safa likewise told us that
politicians will not be initially supportive of the law. He
mentioned Saad Hariri's Future Movement and Walid Jumblatt's
Progressive Socialist Party as two particularly hard sells.
The timing of the draft law's release, however, will actually
work to its advantage. This is because, after Commission
Chairman Fouad Boutros presents the draft to Siniora, the
cabinet will have one month to review it. After that, they
must present it to Parliament. Since Parliament will be in
recess for most of July and August, civil society groups can
use this time to build public support for electoral reform
with a coordinated media campaign plus roundtable discussions
at the local and national level.

...AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN HELP
--------------


11. (C) Finally, Fakherddine said that the international
community, and the United States in particular, should use
its considerable influence in Lebanon to support Lebanon's
electoral reform process. Doing so would also help the U.S.
image in Lebanon, by showing that the United States is
interested in more than just economic reform. Fakherddine
described a widespread perception in Lebanon that the United
States is interested primarily in reform in order to advance
its own economic aims. Sustained U.S. pressure, both public
and private, for genuine electoral reform will provide
Lebanese reformers with much-needed momentum.


12. (C) At the same time, however, without specifically
mentioning ongoing U.S. electoral assistance programs,
Fakherddine cautioned that direct U.S. intervention could be
counterproductive, especially in the Shi'a community and
those parts of Lebanon where it is concentrated.
"Personally, I don't have anything against it," Fakherddine

BEIRUT 00001733 003 OF 003


explained, but he suggested that any U.S. assistance efforts
be exceptionally discreet. "The less visibility in these
areas at the grassroots level, the better," he said.
FELTMAN