MGLE01: BERRI UNDERCUTS SINIORA IN MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001715

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2016
TAGS: IS KPAL LE PGOV PTER SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: BERRI UNDERCUTS SINIORA IN MEETING WITH
THE AMBASSADOR


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d)
.

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C/NF) In a May 31 meeting with the Ambassador and
econoff, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri was critical of
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Berri accused Siniora of
squandering an opportunity to meet with Syrian President
Bashar al-Asad that Berri had so delicately and s ecretly set
up. Berri charged that Siniora wants to keep Lebanese-Syrian
tensions high in order to stay in power. Pulling the
Ambassador aside, Berri hinted that Saad Hariri wants to be
prime minister, and that this could be arranged such that
Hariri would not have to have contact with President Emile
Lahoud (with Berri offering a slight hint that Lahoud could
be removed, with Syrian acquiescence). Regarding yesterday's
Parliament vote condemning Syrian arrest warrants for Walid
Jumblatt and Marwan Hamadeh, Berri, while rejecting the
warrants, explained that his Amal Movement abstained with the
tough language proposed by March 14 because he did not want
to anger Syria. When asked about the violence in southern
Lebanon over the weekend, Berri charged that it was obvious
that Israel was behind the car bombing of Abu Hamzeh. Berri
did not deny that Hizballah was at least complicit in the
Blue Line fighting on May 28. He admitted that he did
nothing to halt the fighting until Siniora called him late in
the afternoon. Berri emphasized that he is opposed to
Palestinian arms, but Syrian help was needed to disarm the
Palestinians. End summary.

BERRI SUGGESTS A
REPLACEMENT FOR SINIORA
--------------


2. (C/NF) On May 31, the Ambassador and econoff met with
Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri at his house in Ayn
el-Tinneh. Berri used the opportunity to speak ill of Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora. Berri claimed that, after much s
ecret diplomacy on his part, in early May he had secured a
May 17 appointment for Siniora to meet with Syrian President
Bashar al-Asad, presumably in Syria. Berri explained that
there were no pre-conditions for the meeting. Berri's
diplomacy was so s ecret and so delicate even Hizballah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah did not know about it.

SIPDIS
However, Siniora squandered the opportunity Berri so deftly
spun for Siniora, he asserted.


3. (C/NF) Berri said he returned from Damascus on May 7,
appointment in hand, and immediately contacted Siniora's
office and MP Bahia Hariri. However, Siniora did not return
his phone call for several days, Berri claimed. Finally,
Siniora agreed to have lunch with Berri on May 15. Over
lunch, Berri offered the "unconditional" appointment he made
with Asad. Berri thought it imperative that Siniora accept
the May 17 appointment, especially since another round of the
National Dialogue was to take place on May 16. Berri and
Siniora could then announce that they had made progress that
benefited all participants. However, Berri was disappointed
when Siniora -- who was visibly unenthusiastic that Berri had
accomplished what Siniora, in fact, had earlier asked him to
do -- asked if the Asad meeting could be rescheduled for May

22. It turned out that the UN Security Council was voting on
UNSC 1680 on May 17, so Siniora did not think it appropriate
to visit Syria that day. Siniora then did nothing to follow
up and the meeting never happened.


4. (C/NF) The Ambassador asked what the sigificance of this
turndown was. Berri replied that he wanted to tout the
success of gaining the meeting for the National Dialogue.
Berri accused Siniora of not wanting a solution to the
tensions between Lebanon and Syria. The tensions keep
Siniora in power, he said. When Lebanese-Syrian relations
return to normal, then Saad Hariri will become the prime
minister, Berri asserted, but he offered no evidence to
substantiate this claim. Then, as the Ambassador and econoff
were leaving, Berri made his pitch more obvious. Pulling the
Ambassador aside, Berri said with a sly smile: "Saad Hariri
wants to be prime minister, you know that." The Ambassador
asked how Hariri could be prime minister if Emile Lahoud
remained president. Berri replied: "What if there is
agreement beforehand of no contact?" Squeezing the
Ambassador's hand, Berri then whispered (perhaps hinting at
the potential for Lahoud's removal),"what if there was
something worked out that took care of the problem?"

BEIRUT 00001715 002 OF 003



"I STILL NEED SYRIA"
--------------


5. (C) Regarding the May 30 Parliamentary vote on
condemning Syria's arrest warrants for MP Walid Jumblatt,
Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh, and journalist
Fares Khashan, Berri explained why his Amal Movement and
Hizballah -- while opposed to the warrants -- abstained from
the vote. Berri said he wanted to use less severe language
in rejecting the warrants by simply arguing that the warrants
were counter to the Lebanese Constitution. Berri admitted
that the issuing of arrest warrants was a "jackass" move by
Syria, but explained: "I still need Syria in the future; I
cannot afford to anger Syria." For example, Syria's help is
necessary in the disarmament of Palestinian militants. The
March 14 coalition wants to insult Syria, but then doesn't
move one inch to resolve any of the problems with Syria,
Berri said. "These people live to insult Damascus and Syria!"

BERRI ON THE BLUE LINE
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador asked Berri for his analysis of the
recent violence in southern Lebanon. Berri replied that
"everyone knows" that Israeli intelligence was behind the May
26 car bombing in Sidon that killed Abu Hamzeh and his
brother. The Israelis tried the same thing two years ago, he
claimed. Berri was further convinced by the fact that Abu
Hamzeh was Islamic Jihad's liaison officer to Hizballah,
giving Israel an obvious motivation. Also, Berri continued,
Islamic Jihad is the only organization that still fights
Israel in the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas and Fatah are too
busy fighting each other. Berri described the car bombing as
a crime because both men killed were Lebanese, not
Palestinian. The Majzoub family is big family with a good
reputation in Sidon. "Do you think Siniora would go to Sidon
and condemn it if they were Palestinian," Berri asked
rhetorically.


7. (C) The Ambassador then asked about Hizballah's actions.
Berri denied that Hizballah security agents had arrived at
the car bombing scene and investigated. As for the rockets
launched from the Rmaich area on May 28 that struck an
Israeli military base, Berri said he did not know what
happened. He commented though, that if Islamic Jihad had
launched the rockets, Hizballah would not have opposed it,
given the Majzoub killings. Once again taking the offensive
against the PM, Berri said that Siniora did not call him
until after 1600 hrs. local to seek his help in quelling the
fighting, after the fighting had been occurring
intermittently since 0430 hrs. local that morning. Before
Siniora called, Berri said he did nothing to stop the
fighting. The Ambassador asked about how Hizballah might
deal with the heavy damage its positions sustained during the
Israeli bombardment. Berri denied that Hizballah positions
were heavily damaged, claiming that even Israeli television
commentators called this a lie. (Note: Both UNIFIL and the
press reported that Hizballah's fixed positions, especially
the newly built ones, were heavily damaged. End note.)


8. (C) Berri wanted to make clear, though, that he opposed
Palestinian militias using Lebanese territory to attack
Israel. (Hizballah's "resistance" force was acceptable, of
course.) In fact, Berri said, he had threatened the
Palestinian military groups with protests if they use
Lebanese land to attack Israel. Berri continued that he saw
Palestinian arms as the big problem, not Hizballah's arms.
Nasrallah had assured the Lebanese that Hizballah was for all
of Lebanon, not one region or religion or party. And to get
at the Palestinian arms, we need Syrian help, Berri asserted.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Berri is the type of traditional Lebanese politician
who wants to broker backroom deals rather than submit his
actions to democratic consideration or transparency. Siniora
is not playing Berri's game, and the Speaker's growing
frustrations were clear in this meeting. (As we will report
septel, Berri is also feuding with Siniora over the
appointment of judges, with Siniora refusing to sit down with
Berri and shake hands on an arrangement.) The press is now
starting to leak stories about the Bashar al-Asad meeting
that Berri "s ecretly" arranged and that Siniora supposedly
spurned. These leaks are probably intended to paint Siniora

BEIRUT 00001715 003 OF 003


as unreasonable, even reckless, in dealing with Lebanon's
more powerful neighbor. We will hear Siniora's side of this
story tomorrow (6/1),but Siniora likely calculated the
dangers a trip to Syria would pose to the UNSC voting on what
became UNSCR 1680: would the resolution have passed with 13
countries on board had, only hours before the voting, Siniora
had headed off to Damascus to see Bashar? But Siniora has,
until now, tread a careful line with Berri, and now he
appears in Berri's mind to have crossed it. Since Siniora
already (for good reason) largely ignores President Emile
Lahoud, he needs, for tactical reasons, to maintain at least
a working relationship with Berri. So far, whatever their
shared allegiances to Syria, Berri and Lahoud have not
combined their considerable constitutional powers to gang up
on Siniora and his cabinet. Siniora needs to avoid that
scenario.
FELTMAN