MGLE01: BERRI UNDERCUTS SINIORA IN MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001715 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2016 TAGS: IS KPAL LE PGOV PTER SY SUBJECT: MGLE01: BERRI UNDERCUTS SINIORA IN MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d) . SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) In a May 31 meeting with the Ambassador and econoff, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri was critical of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Berri accused Siniora of squandering an opportunity to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad that Berri had so delicately and s ecretly set up. Berri charged that Siniora wants to keep Lebanese-Syrian tensions high in order to stay in power. Pulling the Ambassador aside, Berri hinted that Saad Hariri wants to be prime minister, and that this could be arranged such that Hariri would not have to have contact with President Emile Lahoud (with Berri offering a slight hint that Lahoud could be removed, with Syrian acquiescence). Regarding yesterday's Parliament vote condemning Syrian arrest warrants for Walid Jumblatt and Marwan Hamadeh, Berri, while rejecting the warrants, explained that his Amal Movement abstained with the tough language proposed by March 14 because he did not want to anger Syria. When asked about the violence in southern Lebanon over the weekend, Berri charged that it was obvious that Israel was behind the car bombing of Abu Hamzeh. Berri did not deny that Hizballah was at least complicit in the Blue Line fighting on May 28. He admitted that he did nothing to halt the fighting until Siniora called him late in the afternoon. Berri emphasized that he is opposed to Palestinian arms, but Syrian help was needed to disarm the Palestinians. End summary. BERRI SUGGESTS A REPLACEMENT FOR SINIORA -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) On May 31, the Ambassador and econoff met with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri at his house in Ayn el-Tinneh. Berri used the opportunity to speak ill of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Berri claimed that, after much s ecret diplomacy on his part, in early May he had secured a May 17 appointment for Siniora to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad, presumably in Syria. Berri explained that there were no pre-conditions for the meeting. Berri's diplomacy was so s ecret and so delicate even Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah did not know about it. SIPDIS However, Siniora squandered the opportunity Berri so deftly spun for Siniora, he asserted. ¶3. (C/NF) Berri said he returned from Damascus on May 7, appointment in hand, and immediately contacted Siniora's office and MP Bahia Hariri. However, Siniora did not return his phone call for several days, Berri claimed. Finally, Siniora agreed to have lunch with Berri on May 15. Over lunch, Berri offered the "unconditional" appointment he made with Asad. Berri thought it imperative that Siniora accept the May 17 appointment, especially since another round of the National Dialogue was to take place on May 16. Berri and Siniora could then announce that they had made progress that benefited all participants. However, Berri was disappointed when Siniora -- who was visibly unenthusiastic that Berri had accomplished what Siniora, in fact, had earlier asked him to do -- asked if the Asad meeting could be rescheduled for May ¶22. It turned out that the UN Security Council was voting on UNSC 1680 on May 17, so Siniora did not think it appropriate to visit Syria that day. Siniora then did nothing to follow up and the meeting never happened. ¶4. (C/NF) The Ambassador asked what the sigificance of this turndown was. Berri replied that he wanted to tout the success of gaining the meeting for the National Dialogue. Berri accused Siniora of not wanting a solution to the tensions between Lebanon and Syria. The tensions keep Siniora in power, he said. When Lebanese-Syrian relations return to normal, then Saad Hariri will become the prime minister, Berri asserted, but he offered no evidence to substantiate this claim. Then, as the Ambassador and econoff were leaving, Berri made his pitch more obvious. Pulling the Ambassador aside, Berri said with a sly smile: "Saad Hariri wants to be prime minister, you know that." The Ambassador asked how Hariri could be prime minister if Emile Lahoud remained president. Berri replied: "What if there is agreement beforehand of no contact?" Squeezing the Ambassador's hand, Berri then whispered (perhaps hinting at the potential for Lahoud's removal),"what if there was something worked out that took care of the problem?" BEIRUT 00001715 002 OF 003 "I STILL NEED SYRIA" -------------- ¶5. (C) Regarding the May 30 Parliamentary vote on condemning Syria's arrest warrants for MP Walid Jumblatt, Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh, and journalist Fares Khashan, Berri explained why his Amal Movement and Hizballah -- while opposed to the warrants -- abstained from the vote. Berri said he wanted to use less severe language in rejecting the warrants by simply arguing that the warrants were counter to the Lebanese Constitution. Berri admitted that the issuing of arrest warrants was a "jackass" move by Syria, but explained: "I still need Syria in the future; I cannot afford to anger Syria." For example, Syria's help is necessary in the disarmament of Palestinian militants. The March 14 coalition wants to insult Syria, but then doesn't move one inch to resolve any of the problems with Syria, Berri said. "These people live to insult Damascus and Syria!" BERRI ON THE BLUE LINE -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador asked Berri for his analysis of the recent violence in southern Lebanon. Berri replied that "everyone knows" that Israeli intelligence was behind the May 26 car bombing in Sidon that killed Abu Hamzeh and his brother. The Israelis tried the same thing two years ago, he claimed. Berri was further convinced by the fact that Abu Hamzeh was Islamic Jihad's liaison officer to Hizballah, giving Israel an obvious motivation. Also, Berri continued, Islamic Jihad is the only organization that still fights Israel in the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas and Fatah are too busy fighting each other. Berri described the car bombing as a crime because both men killed were Lebanese, not Palestinian. The Majzoub family is big family with a good reputation in Sidon. "Do you think Siniora would go to Sidon and condemn it if they were Palestinian," Berri asked rhetorically. ¶7. (C) The Ambassador then asked about Hizballah's actions. Berri denied that Hizballah security agents had arrived at the car bombing scene and investigated. As for the rockets launched from the Rmaich area on May 28 that struck an Israeli military base, Berri said he did not know what happened. He commented though, that if Islamic Jihad had launched the rockets, Hizballah would not have opposed it, given the Majzoub killings. Once again taking the offensive against the PM, Berri said that Siniora did not call him until after 1600 hrs. local to seek his help in quelling the fighting, after the fighting had been occurring intermittently since 0430 hrs. local that morning. Before Siniora called, Berri said he did nothing to stop the fighting. The Ambassador asked about how Hizballah might deal with the heavy damage its positions sustained during the Israeli bombardment. Berri denied that Hizballah positions were heavily damaged, claiming that even Israeli television commentators called this a lie. (Note: Both UNIFIL and the press reported that Hizballah's fixed positions, especially the newly built ones, were heavily damaged. End note.) ¶8. (C) Berri wanted to make clear, though, that he opposed Palestinian militias using Lebanese territory to attack Israel. (Hizballah's "resistance" force was acceptable, of course.) In fact, Berri said, he had threatened the Palestinian military groups with protests if they use Lebanese land to attack Israel. Berri continued that he saw Palestinian arms as the big problem, not Hizballah's arms. Nasrallah had assured the Lebanese that Hizballah was for all of Lebanon, not one region or religion or party. And to get at the Palestinian arms, we need Syrian help, Berri asserted. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Berri is the type of traditional Lebanese politician who wants to broker backroom deals rather than submit his actions to democratic consideration or transparency. Siniora is not playing Berri's game, and the Speaker's growing frustrations were clear in this meeting. (As we will report septel, Berri is also feuding with Siniora over the appointment of judges, with Siniora refusing to sit down with Berri and shake hands on an arrangement.) The press is now starting to leak stories about the Bashar al-Asad meeting that Berri "s ecretly" arranged and that Siniora supposedly spurned. These leaks are probably intended to paint Siniora BEIRUT 00001715 003 OF 003 as unreasonable, even reckless, in dealing with Lebanon's more powerful neighbor. We will hear Siniora's side of this story tomorrow (6/1),but Siniora likely calculated the dangers a trip to Syria would pose to the UNSC voting on what became UNSCR 1680: would the resolution have passed with 13 countries on board had, only hours before the voting, Siniora had headed off to Damascus to see Bashar? But Siniora has, until now, tread a careful line with Berri, and now he appears in Berri's mind to have crossed it. Since Siniora already (for good reason) largely ignores President Emile Lahoud, he needs, for tactical reasons, to maintain at least a working relationship with Berri. So far, whatever their shared allegiances to Syria, Berri and Lahoud have not combined their considerable constitutional powers to gang up on Siniora and his cabinet. Siniora needs to avoid that scenario. FELTMAN