MGLE01: FINANCE MINISTER UPBEAT ABOUT ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001712 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2016 TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV LE SUBJECT: MGLE01: FINANCE MINISTER UPBEAT ABOUT ECONOMIC PROGRESS Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. On May 30, Ambassador and Econ/Commercial Officer met with Finance Minister Azour to discuss the status of GOL economic reform efforts. Azour was upbeat as a result of the Lebanese economy's encouraging macroeconomic indicators and what he described as the positive reception he received at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Citing the successful (and unexpected) uncapping of the price of gasoline as evidence, Azour was optimistic that the GOL could push forward further reforms in the near future, as well as deregulation of the telecom sector. The GOL is now working closely with consulting firm Booz Allen to gain public "buy-in" for further economic reform. Azour would like to continue to push forward on future reforms concerning health, social security, and electricity. He told the Ambassador that the long-awaited 2006 Budget would be released during World Cup matches next month in order to lessen the public relations impact of proposed tax increases. Musing that autumn timing might be best, Azour told the Ambassador that Lebanon still "needed" a donors' conference. He urged the international community to continue to stress that Lebanon now has an opportunity to improve its economic situation and the moment may not last. End Summary. POSITIVE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM MEETINGS -------------- ¶2. (C) Azour told the Ambassador that he had productive meetings at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm el-Sheikh, including sessions with Treasury Secretary Snow, Treasury U/S Adams, the Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Russia, the Deputy Minister of Finance of Japan, and supportive non-Core Group Gulf Finance Ministers from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Azour discussed the recent positive macroeconomic developments in Lebanon with forum participants. Azour believes that Lebanon's GDP growth will reach five percent for 2006 if there are no major political or security problems, such as additional fighting in the South. Public finances are also in good shape, according to Azour. When the Ambassador asked Azour if the Liban Cell compensation case had hurt the GOL's financial situation, Azour said that the major damage had been done to Lebanon's image, and there wasn't a significant financial impact on the GOL. POSITIVE GOL DECISION TO UNCAP PRICE OF GASOLINE -------------- ¶3. (C) After the Ambassador complimented Azour on the recent GOL decision to uncap the price of gasoline -- a major reform that passed the cabinet unexpectedly, and without controversy -- Azour said uncapping the price allowed the GOL to avoid the need for petroleum subsidies. Azour explained that in the event that the international oil price would fall substantially (below 21,400 Lebanese pounds or USD 14.27 for a 20-liter container),the price would stabilize at more or less the current level and the GOL would get additional excise tax revenue. According to Azour, low income Lebanese will not be disproportionately hurt by the increased gas prices, as only 12 percent of low-income residents have cars. The increased costs for the poor would primarily be from the increased transport cost of goods. Azour said the GOL was looking at ways to compensate for the increased fuel costs for truck drivers. He added the GOL was also looking at ways to improve public transfers or even provide direct transfers to the most affected members of the population. He told the Ambassador that the GOL may have learned a valuable lesson from the freeing of gasoline prices in that potentially difficult measures should not be publicized before implemented. AZOUR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TELECOM DEREGULATION -------------- ¶4. (C) Azour told the Ambassador he was optimistic about the possibilities of deregulation in the telecom sector. He said Requests for Proposal (RFPs) had already been sent to BEIRUT 00001712 002 OF 003 investment banks for licenses and the corporatization of the fixed lines. When the Ambassador asked if the GOL needed a functioning Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) to begin deregulation, Azour assured the Ambassador that deregulation could begin before a TRA board is in place. (Note: We are following up with the Ministry of Telecommunications for details on the telecom deregulation plans. End note.) GOL WORKING ON NEW MARKETING STRATEGY -------------- ¶5. (C) Azour said the GOL is now working closely with the consulting firm Booz Allen on a marketing strategy for the economic reform agenda in order to gain public "buy-in." Azour acknowledged that GOL tactical mistakes in marketing the reform agenda may have been made during periods of political deadlock and others had moved to take advantage of these slips. He stated that some of the leaders of the majority may have given in too easily to public pressures that threatened to change the government. He said the GOL was committed to changing the dynamic of the economic reform debate and raising the expectations of the public on the need for reform. When the Ambassador asked Azour if he has strong allies for reform in the GOL, Azour said that he and Economy and Trade Minister Haddad had started discussing the reform agenda with key leaders in the governing majority, including a recent meeting with Druse leader MP Jumblatt. While Azour and Haddad knew that they had to reach out to opposition figures like Michel Aoun as well as trade unions and business organizations, they only belatedly recognized the need to explain their plans more carefully to their own allies. BUDGET TO BE RELEASED DURING WORLD CUP -------------- ¶6. (C) Azour said that he would like to keep up the pressure on the GOL to address health, social security, and electricity issues in the near future. He promised the Ambassador that he would give the Embassy a list of what reforms the GOL had achieved during the last year. When the Ambassador asked Azour about the 2006 budget, Azour said that he was planning on releasing the budget during the World Cup matches next month in order to minimize attention to the tax increases that he has planned. According to an impact assessment by the Ministry of Finance, the two percent proposed Value Added Tax (VAT) increase would cost roughly USD eight per month for a family with a monthly income of USD 1000; he said this expense would be made up through further social safety net compensations. Azour said that 90 percent of the tax revenues from the two percent proposed increase in the tax on interest would come from just 2,000 bank accounts. According to Azour, GOL efforts would also reduce several indirect taxes, as well as streamline tax management and administration. CONSENSUS DIFFICULT, BROAD-BASED "BUY-IN" ACHIEVABLE -------------- ¶7. (C) Azour stated that the GOL would never achieve consensus on any economic reform and that the GOL was now working on receiving broad-based "buy-in" from political and social groups. When the Ambassador asked if the GOL needed a Shia "buy-in" in order to move forward with reform, Azour said that many of the recent demonstrators were not aware of the issues involved in the economic debate and that the positions of Hizballah and Amal often shift when public sentiment shifts. LEBANON NEEDS A CONFERENCE -------------- ¶8. (C) Azour, in response to the Ambassador's question, said that the GOL needed a Beirut donors' conference. Azour added that he did not see a possibility of having the conference before September. Azour told the Ambassador that he and his colleagues in the international community should continue to stress that: (1) Lebanon now has an opportunity to improve its economic situation and the moment may not last, and (2) the current reform document is a minimum of BEIRUT 00001712 003 OF 003 what Lebanon will present in terms of credible reform measures. FELTMAN