MGLE01: A WEEKEND OF VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001690 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2016 TAGS: IS KPAL KPKO LE MOPS PTER SUBJECT: MGLE01: A WEEKEND OF VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON REF: BEIRUT 1671 Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The weekend of May 26-28 saw some of the most intense violence in southern Lebanon since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. On May 26, a car bomb in Sidon killed Islamic Jihad official Abu Hamzeh and his brother. Islamic Jihad blamed Israel and then retracted its statement. Throughout the weekend, however, there was a widespread belief in Lebanon that Israel had been responsible for the car bombing. During the early morning of May 28, several probable Katyusha rockets were fired from southern Lebanon at an Israeli base near Safed, wounding one Israeli soldier. Between 1000 and 1100 hrs. local, Israeli aircraft struck PFLP-GC positions in Sultan Yaccoub and Naameh. While Sheba'a Farms remained quiet, fighting erupted all along the Israeli-Lebanese (vice Golan) portion of the Blue Line in mid-afternoon after an unidentified sniper shot and wounded and Israeli soldier. UNIFIL secured a cease-fire, but only after Israel had conducted heavy bombing. According to press reports, a Hizballah fighter and Palestinian militant were killed in the fighting, two Israeli soldiers were wounded, and two Lebanese civilians were wounded. Rumors persist that Hizballah casualties were higher. UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar told econoff that Hizballah sustained serious damage to its new positions along the Blue Line and that the Israeli air operation was more robust than usual. End summary. CAR BOMB IN SIDON -------------- ¶2. (U) Southern Lebanon's weekend of violence began at approximately 1030 hrs. local on May 26 when a car bomb in Sidon killed Islamic Jihad official Mahmoud al-Majzoub (aka Abu Hamzeh) and his brother Nidal (reftel). Following the bombing, Islamic Jihad representative in Lebanon Abu Imad Rifai issued a statement blaming Israel and vowing revenge. Islamic Jihad later retracted that statement. Minister of Information Ghazi al-Aridi told the press following a cabinet meeting that the Siniora cabinet "denounces the crime and believes that it carries the fingerprints of the Israeli occupation." ¶3. (C) Mohammad Salam, a journalist based in Sidon, told econoff on May 26 that, following the car bombing, Hizballah security agents sealed off the area and started an investigation. Salam explained that it is rare for Hizballah security personnel to operate so openly in Sidon. The last time this occurred was five years ago when a Hizballah official was killed by an alleged Israeli bomb. Salam reported further that Islamic Jihad had been stepping up recruitment in Sidon lately, offering a monthly salary of USD ¶300. Islamic Jihad also has been openly working with Hizballah, he said. Most people in Sidon are assuming that Israel is behind the car bombing and had used a plane overhead to detonate the device, according to Salam. (Embassy DAO note: A source in the Lebanese Armed Forces denied that Hizballah security agents were at the bomb site in Sidon. End note.) ROCKET ATTACK ON ISRAEL LEADS TO ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES -------------- ¶4. (C) UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar briefed econoff on the fighting on May 28. According to Strugar, several rockets (most likely Katyushas) were launched from southern Lebanon into northern Israel at approximately 0430 hrs. local striking an Israeli military base at Mount Meron eight kilometers south of the Blue Line near the Israeli town of Safed. An Israeli soldier was wounded in that early morning rocket barrage. Hizballah and Islamic Jihad denied firing the rockets, although the apparent launch site was in the area of Rmaich, an area known to be under the control of Hizballah. Later that morning, between 1000 and 1100 hrs. local, Israeli aircraft bombed PFLP-GC military bases at Sultan Yaccoub (in the Biqa Valley) and at Naameh (south of Beirut). Strugar said that unconfirmed reports indicate that one PFLP-GC fighter was killed and six were wounded by the Israeli airstrikes. ¶5. (C) At 1115 hrs. local, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora BEIRUT 00001690 002 OF 003 asked the Charge to use U.S. contacts to urge restraint by the Israelis. He said he had been in indirect contact with Hizballah which had reported that "Hizballah will not attack Israel if Hizballah itself is not attacked." Charge conveyed this message to the Department and Embassy Tel Aviv by phonecon. ¶6. (C) Fighting spread all along the Blue Line in the mid-afternoon of May 28, according to Strugar. The spark was a sniper shot across the Blue Line that seriously wounded an Israeli soldier near Al Manara village. Both Hizballah and Islamic Jihad denied that the sniper was one of their fighters, but a Defense Attache source reported that Hizballah abandoned its fixed positions prior to the sniper attack, suggesting that Hizballah had foreknowledge if not direct involvement. In response, Israeli aircraft and artillery pounded Hizballah positions along the Israeli-Lebanese section of the Blue Line, killing a Hizballah fighter. (The Blue Line between Lebanon and the occupied Golan Heights, inculding in the Sheba'a Farms area, remained quiet, according to our contacts.) ¶7. (C) Strugar described the Israeli air attack as heavier than the Israeli response on November 21 to a Hizballah raid into Ghajar. Hizballah sustained severe damage to its fixed positions, Strugar said. He also characterized the fighting as more one-sided than in November, with Hizballah -- after initial provocations, if they were Hizballah-initiated -- playing a largely passive, defensive role in the fighting while Israeli operations were more intense. According to UNIFIL observations, Israel fired 462 artillery and mortar rounds to 54 rounds from the Lebanese side. UNIFIL observed nine rockets and three antiaircraft rounds fired from Lebanese armed elements while Israel dropped 64 aerial bombs on Lebanon. ¶8. (C) At approximately 4:00 p.m. the office of UNSYG Personal Representative to Lebanon Geir Pederson called the Embassy to request immediate assistance in securing a cease-fire. Charge reported to Pederson that we were, at this time, engaged in conversations with both the Prime Minister's office and with the Department to urge that both sides cease the violence. At one point, a UN official said the Lebanese side had agreed to a cease-fire, but Israeli forces continued their ro}+t bombing campainn \eS%Ne UN pleas. We also had the sense at this time, about 1630 hrs. local, that the Lebanese Government was anxious for an end to the fighting, and asked that this urgent plea be conveyed to the other parties. A cease-fire was secured at approximately 5:00 p.m. LEBANESE CLEAN UP AMID ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS -------------- ¶9. (C) UNIFIL observed eight Israeli overflights over southern Lebanon on May 29, according to Strugar. UNIFIL also observed Hizballah fighters returning to their heavily damaged positions to assess the damage and begin clean-up. Strugar said that the Israeli airstrikes appeared to have focused on the new Hizballah hardened positions built in the last six months. The purpose of the new positions is unknown, but Israeli liaison had told Strugar that it believed the positions were used for surveillance and for launching attacks. Strugar added that the UN office would be meeting with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on May 30 to protest the rocket attacks. He emphasized that, pursuant to UN resolutions, the UN holds the GOL responsible for any firing from its territory regardless of which militant group did it. ¶10. (C) According to press reports, several Lebanese border villages sustained broken glass as a result of the Israeli bombardment. Also, two Lebanese civilians were reportedly wounded. In the village of Sohmor, thousands turned out for a Hizballah funeral for its fighter killed on May 28. Press identified the dead Hizballah fighter as Youssef Mohammad Alaeddine, aged 36. At Alaeddine's funeral, senior Hizballah official Sheikh Mohammad Yazbek declared that Hizballah would continue to attack Israel and would never disarm. Rumors persist that more than one Hizballah fighter was killed. Minister of Telecommnications Marwan Hamadeh told the Ambassador that he had information indicating that eight were killed, and many Lebanese are citing Israeli press reports of up to ten killed. OBSERVERS SEE LIKELY BEIRUT 00001690 003 OF 003 HIZBALLAH INVOLVEMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel on May 28 told econoff that he did not think it was possible that any militant group could fire six to eight Katyushas from southern Lebanon without the knowledge or even participation of Hizballah. Goksel believed that Hizballah had intended one final, major attack along the Blue Line before the summer tourist season in Lebanon began. Hizballah could demonstrate that it is still fighting Israel without damaging much needed tourism revenues that some of its constituents depend on. The car bombing in Sidon provided the perfect pretext, in Goksel's analysis. ¶12. (C) Separately, a Lebanese Armed Forces officer gave the Defense Attache the same assessment as Goksel to the effect that only Hizballah itself, or perhaps the Palestinians with a great deal of cooperation and assistance from Hizballah, could have launched the May 28 morning rocket attacks against the Israeli Air Force base at Safd. Given Hizballah's tight control over territory in the south of Lebanon, it is unlikely that Palestinians could have fired rockets in revenge for the Majzoub brothers' assassinations, without at least Hizballah complicity. The question of who fired the rockets at dawn on May 28 raises a second question of how the Israelis decided to target their retaliation-in this case against Palestinian bases (PFLP-GC) rather than Hizballah. COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Another set of ambiguous questions centers around Hizballah's indirect assurance to Prime Minister Siniora that Hizballah would not attack unless is was attacked itself. Charge discussed this assurance with UNSYG Personal Representative Geir Pederson, who had heard the same assurance. Both agreed that either Hizballah broke its word to Siniora (when the mid-afternoon sniping began),or Hizballah was not in control of "its" territory in such a way as to prevent Palestinian or other combatants from sniping across the Blue Line, or, thirdly, Hizballah knew of but willfully turned a blind eye to the activities of non-Hizballah fighters along the Blue Line. In any event, the near certainty of Hizballah involvement in the dawn rocket shootings into Israel discredits the indirect assurance that Hizballah had given to PM Siniora, and in fact served to undermine his credibility. We hope that the March 14 bloc and General Aoun can use Sunday's events to help discredit Hizballah when the National Dialogue resumes on March 8. In his meeting with the Ambassador today (5/30), Marwan Hamadeh vowed to do just that. End comment. FELTMAN