MGLE01: UNIFIL SEES NO REASON FOR SPIKE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001357 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016 TAGS: IS KPKO LE MOPS PTER SUBJECT: MGLE01: UNIFIL SEES NO REASON FOR SPIKE IN ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS ON MAY DAY Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d) . SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On May 2, UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar told econoff that UNIFIL observed 10 Israeli jets violating the Blue Line on May 1. He said that the Lebanese army had opened fire with anti-aircraft artillery, but Hizballah did not respond in any way. According to Strugar, there had been no Lebanese provocations along the Blue Line in the days leading up to the May Day overflights. Separately, former UNIFIL spokesman and Hizballah expert Timur Goksel told econoff that Hizballah will likely view the May Day overflights as a routine spike in Israeli air violations that often precede Israeli national holidays. He did not expect Hizballah to retaliate militarily for this incident. End summary NO LEBANESE PROVOCATIONS PRIOR TO ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 2, UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar briefed econoff on the flurry of Israeli overflights over Lebanon on May 1. According to Strugar, UNIFIL observed a total of ten Israeli jets crossing the Blue Line on May Day. He added that he was familiar with reports that Israeli aircraft had also flown over Beirut, Sidon, and Tyre, but could not officially confirm this as it was outside of UNIFIL's area of responsibility. Strugar said, noting that he was speaking off the record, that the Lebanese army had fired anti-aircraft artillery at the Israeli aircraft over Tyre. UNIFIL did not observe any anti-aircraft or other fire from Hizballah, according to Strugar. ¶3. (C) Strugar said that UNIFIL had not observed any provocation from the Lebanese side that might have triggered the large number of Israeli air violations on May 1. In fact, he said, the Blue Line has been remarkably quiet for some time. UNIFIL did not observe any unusual Hizballah movements or activities prior to the overflights, either. Strugar reported that Hizballah has not responded to the overflights and has not made any threats to do so. UNIFIL registered a complaint with Israel, but Israeli liaison has not yet offered an explanation for the spike in air violations, according to Strugar. HIZBALLAH EXPERT DOES NOT EXPECT HIZBALLAH TO RESPOND -------------- ¶4. (C) For context, econoff also talked to former UNIFIL spokesman and Hizballah expert Dr. Timur Goksel on May 2. In his assessment, Goksel believed that Hizballah will let the provocations of May 1 go unanswered. Goskel said that when he was still working for UNIFIL, he had observed a routine whereby Israeli overflights would spike immediately before Israeli holidays (such as the upcoming Independence Day), presumably to look for signs that Hizballah might attack on the holiday. Goksel believed that Hizballah also detected this pattern, and therefore will not see the Israeli overflights on May 1 as a significant enough provocation that would necessitate a military response. Goksel did not see any link with Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's announcement in "As Safir" newspaper on April 27 that Hizballah gave political and financial support to Palestinian terrorist groups in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. "Everyone knows this," Goksel said, "it was not a big deal." FELTMAN