MGLE01: SALEM OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTORAL LAW,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001335

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI EAID LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: SALEM OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTORAL LAW,
WORRIED BY POLITICAL DEADLOCK


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Paul Salem, a member of the national commission
charged with reforming Lebanon's electoral law, told us he
was optimistic about the commission's ability to reach
consensus on a districting plan in the coming weeks. He said
the overall atmosphere in the commission, while still
affected by the aborted resignations of two members in March,
was greatly improved, focused, and productive. Salem worried
about what he perceived as a stalemate in Lebanese politics,
and doubted that ongoing national dialogue talks would be
able to produce any breakthrough. Salem blamed external
forces -- Syria and Iran -- and internal forces -- Hizballah,
Michel Aoun, and President Lahoud -- for the current
"logjam." He also criticized "March 14" leaders for "putting
their heads in the sand" and failing to present a common
national vision. He blamed the Hariris for a "dismissive"
attitude towards Lebanon's other confessional groups, and
suggested that an Aoun presidency, while hardly ideal, might
help open space for further reforms. End summary.

THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION IS ON TRACK
--------------


2. (C) On April 25, emboff met with political scientist Paul
Salem to discuss the work of Lebanon's National Commission
for the Electoral Law, of which Salem is a member. Salem
was, for the first time in several weeks, optimistic about
the commission's work. He said they had met the night before
and that they were making progress on the final, contentious
issue of Lebanon's electoral districts. "The rest of it is
finished," he said. "If everything continues to go well," he
said, the commission may reach agreement on the districting
issue in "as little as one or two weeks," after which time
they would turn the finished draft law over to the prime
minister.


3. (C) Emboff asked Salem if he though the commission would
be able to reach a consensus on one districting plan, or
whether they might fall back on two or three options. Salem
said that they were working towards one plan, and it would be
one plan or nothing. "If we can't agree on one plan, we'll
just give it to the government without the districts," he
said. He suggested that, in this case, maybe it would be an
issue for the ongoing national dialogue talks to resolve.


4. (C) Still, Salem said that he and his fellow commission
members would likely be able to agree on a single plan. He
said that the general atmosphere and level of cooperation had
improved considerably since Maronite commission members Ziad
Baroud and Michel Tabet rejoined the commission after their
March walkout. "The commission took a hit, and there are
still some bruised feelings, but we're working together very
well now," Salem explained.

BUT THE REST OF LEBANON IS IN A JAM
--------------


5. (C) Salem worried, however, that, even if electoral
reform moves ahead, it might not go anywhere as long as
Lebanon's political class remains at "loggerheads." It
seemed as if Lebanon's politicians have coalesced into two
opposing camps, the Hariri-backed "March 14" forces, and
Hizballah's "March 8"-plus-Aoun axis. Salem saw no way out
of the current impasse, and worried that, if it continued,
any further chances for political reform would evaporate.


6. (C) Salem blamed both external and internal forces for
the current political impasse. He said that, externally,
Syria, Iran, and their Lebanese proxy, Hizballah, would block
any attempt to resolve the issue of the Lebanese presidency
or initiate Hizballah's disarmament. Perhaps they could come
up with a "fig leaf" agreement about Hizballah's role in
defending Lebanon while they worked towards disarmament. As
long as Iran and the United States remain at loggerheads,
however, there was no chance for Hizballah disarmament,
according to Salem.


BEIRUT 00001335 002 OF 002



7. (C) Internally, Salem blamed President Lahoud and his
would-be successor, Michel Aoun, for blocking any political
progress. Lahoud had become a non-entity and would only act
to block reform initiatives. Aoun, meanwhile, was so set on
the presidency that he was losing focus of more pressing
national issues. Asked if the "March 14" majority could not
go ahead with certain aspects of the reform agenda in spite
of Lahoud's and Aoun's intransigence, Salem said the real
danger would come from the cabinet's Shiite bloc, who could
simply walk out again -- as they did in December 2005 -- and
immediately bring any government reform initiatives to a halt.

"SQUIRMING CONFESSIONS" EXPOSED BY THE LIGHT OF DAY
-------------- --------------


8. (C) In a particularly vivid analogy, Salem said that the
Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in April 2005 had been like
the removal of a large rock from Lebanon's surface, exposing
to the sunlight, for the first time in 30 years, Lebanon's
"squirming, wriggling" confessional groups. He blamed the
"March 14" alliance for failing to answer any of the "big
political questions," and for "putting its head in the sand."
The Lebanese still lack any firm idea of how Lebanon can be
governed, according to Salem.


9. (C) Salem said that today's entire political class came
of age under Syrian occupation, and they still think in a
Syrian mindset. He specifically blamed the Hariri clan for
their "cavalier dismissal" of other Lebanon's other sectarian
groups. "They buy people off and expect them to stay in
line. But they don't want anyone to challenge them. They
think Lebanon is a Sunnite show." Their incessant rejection
of Aoun, despite his obvious support among Lebanon's
Christians, should lead one to question the "March 14"
alliance's democratic credentials. Salem said.

THE "WACKY" GENERAL
--------------


10. (C) Salem argued that, with Lebanon's democratic
institutions and practices atrophied by Syrian domination,
the current leadership does not even know how to exercise the
most basic democratic principles. He again pointed to Aoun,
arguing that, if he has the overwhelming support of the
Christian population, maybe he deserves the presidency. "The
politicians need to trust the democratic system," Salem
explained.


11. (C) Salem admitted that Aoun was not the ideal choice.
"Everyone says he's crazy. So what? He's not as wacky as
(Druze leader Walid) Jumblatt, and he's not as corrupt as
(Speaker of Parliament Nabih) Berri." Emboff suggested that
his agreement with Hizballah was cause for real concern, even
if he does not have Berri's reputation for corruption. Salem
countered that Lebanon needed a strong president to break the
current deadlock. "At least with a president, we'll have a
horse for our cart. Right now we have neither."

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) Beyond his role as a member of the electoral reform
commission, Paul Salem is one of Lebanon's leading
intellectuals, and he can always be relied upon as a
thoughtful interlocutor. Salem will be in Washington between
April 30 and May 2, and has told us he would be interested in
meetings at the Department during his visit. Seeing Salem
would give Department officials the chance to meet with one
of the primary architects of Lebanon's draft electoral law;
it would also be another opportunity to convey our deep
reservations about Aoun's alliance with Hizballah. End
comment.
FELTMAN