MGLE01: SALEM OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTORAL LAW,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001335 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/PI - KIRBY, AND DRL - BIRKLE NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH LONDON FOR TSOU PARIS FOR ZEYA TUNIS FOR MEPI - MULREAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI EAID LE SUBJECT: MGLE01: SALEM OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTORAL LAW, WORRIED BY POLITICAL DEADLOCK Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Paul Salem, a member of the national commission charged with reforming Lebanon's electoral law, told us he was optimistic about the commission's ability to reach consensus on a districting plan in the coming weeks. He said the overall atmosphere in the commission, while still affected by the aborted resignations of two members in March, was greatly improved, focused, and productive. Salem worried about what he perceived as a stalemate in Lebanese politics, and doubted that ongoing national dialogue talks would be able to produce any breakthrough. Salem blamed external forces -- Syria and Iran -- and internal forces -- Hizballah, Michel Aoun, and President Lahoud -- for the current "logjam." He also criticized "March 14" leaders for "putting their heads in the sand" and failing to present a common national vision. He blamed the Hariris for a "dismissive" attitude towards Lebanon's other confessional groups, and suggested that an Aoun presidency, while hardly ideal, might help open space for further reforms. End summary. THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION IS ON TRACK -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 25, emboff met with political scientist Paul Salem to discuss the work of Lebanon's National Commission for the Electoral Law, of which Salem is a member. Salem was, for the first time in several weeks, optimistic about the commission's work. He said they had met the night before and that they were making progress on the final, contentious issue of Lebanon's electoral districts. "The rest of it is finished," he said. "If everything continues to go well," he said, the commission may reach agreement on the districting issue in "as little as one or two weeks," after which time they would turn the finished draft law over to the prime minister. ¶3. (C) Emboff asked Salem if he though the commission would be able to reach a consensus on one districting plan, or whether they might fall back on two or three options. Salem said that they were working towards one plan, and it would be one plan or nothing. "If we can't agree on one plan, we'll just give it to the government without the districts," he said. He suggested that, in this case, maybe it would be an issue for the ongoing national dialogue talks to resolve. ¶4. (C) Still, Salem said that he and his fellow commission members would likely be able to agree on a single plan. He said that the general atmosphere and level of cooperation had improved considerably since Maronite commission members Ziad Baroud and Michel Tabet rejoined the commission after their March walkout. "The commission took a hit, and there are still some bruised feelings, but we're working together very well now," Salem explained. BUT THE REST OF LEBANON IS IN A JAM -------------- ¶5. (C) Salem worried, however, that, even if electoral reform moves ahead, it might not go anywhere as long as Lebanon's political class remains at "loggerheads." It seemed as if Lebanon's politicians have coalesced into two opposing camps, the Hariri-backed "March 14" forces, and Hizballah's "March 8"-plus-Aoun axis. Salem saw no way out of the current impasse, and worried that, if it continued, any further chances for political reform would evaporate. ¶6. (C) Salem blamed both external and internal forces for the current political impasse. He said that, externally, Syria, Iran, and their Lebanese proxy, Hizballah, would block any attempt to resolve the issue of the Lebanese presidency or initiate Hizballah's disarmament. Perhaps they could come up with a "fig leaf" agreement about Hizballah's role in defending Lebanon while they worked towards disarmament. As long as Iran and the United States remain at loggerheads, however, there was no chance for Hizballah disarmament, according to Salem. BEIRUT 00001335 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Internally, Salem blamed President Lahoud and his would-be successor, Michel Aoun, for blocking any political progress. Lahoud had become a non-entity and would only act to block reform initiatives. Aoun, meanwhile, was so set on the presidency that he was losing focus of more pressing national issues. Asked if the "March 14" majority could not go ahead with certain aspects of the reform agenda in spite of Lahoud's and Aoun's intransigence, Salem said the real danger would come from the cabinet's Shiite bloc, who could simply walk out again -- as they did in December 2005 -- and immediately bring any government reform initiatives to a halt. "SQUIRMING CONFESSIONS" EXPOSED BY THE LIGHT OF DAY -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) In a particularly vivid analogy, Salem said that the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in April 2005 had been like the removal of a large rock from Lebanon's surface, exposing to the sunlight, for the first time in 30 years, Lebanon's "squirming, wriggling" confessional groups. He blamed the "March 14" alliance for failing to answer any of the "big political questions," and for "putting its head in the sand." The Lebanese still lack any firm idea of how Lebanon can be governed, according to Salem. ¶9. (C) Salem said that today's entire political class came of age under Syrian occupation, and they still think in a Syrian mindset. He specifically blamed the Hariri clan for their "cavalier dismissal" of other Lebanon's other sectarian groups. "They buy people off and expect them to stay in line. But they don't want anyone to challenge them. They think Lebanon is a Sunnite show." Their incessant rejection of Aoun, despite his obvious support among Lebanon's Christians, should lead one to question the "March 14" alliance's democratic credentials. Salem said. THE "WACKY" GENERAL -------------- ¶10. (C) Salem argued that, with Lebanon's democratic institutions and practices atrophied by Syrian domination, the current leadership does not even know how to exercise the most basic democratic principles. He again pointed to Aoun, arguing that, if he has the overwhelming support of the Christian population, maybe he deserves the presidency. "The politicians need to trust the democratic system," Salem explained. ¶11. (C) Salem admitted that Aoun was not the ideal choice. "Everyone says he's crazy. So what? He's not as wacky as (Druze leader Walid) Jumblatt, and he's not as corrupt as (Speaker of Parliament Nabih) Berri." Emboff suggested that his agreement with Hizballah was cause for real concern, even if he does not have Berri's reputation for corruption. Salem countered that Lebanon needed a strong president to break the current deadlock. "At least with a president, we'll have a horse for our cart. Right now we have neither." COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Beyond his role as a member of the electoral reform commission, Paul Salem is one of Lebanon's leading intellectuals, and he can always be relied upon as a thoughtful interlocutor. Salem will be in Washington between April 30 and May 2, and has told us he would be interested in meetings at the Department during his visit. Seeing Salem would give Department officials the chance to meet with one of the primary architects of Lebanon's draft electoral law; it would also be another opportunity to convey our deep reservations about Aoun's alliance with Hizballah. End comment. FELTMAN