MGLE01: PATRIARCH SFEIR NOT CONFIDENT LAHOUD WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001307

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2026
TAGS: IR LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: PATRIARCH SFEIR NOT CONFIDENT LAHOUD WILL
BE REMOVED


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d)
.

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an April 27 meeting, the Ambassador and econoff
discussed with Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Sfeir the
recent visit of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to Washington.
Sfeir agreed with the Ambassador on the success of the visit,
saying that Justice Minister Charles Rizk had also given him
a positive report. The Ambassador told Sfeir that the USG
would very much like to host a new democratically elected
Lebanese president as well, while the USG will continue to
support Lebanon on several fronts. On Lebanese domestic
politics, Sfeir lamented how divided the Christian community
has become between Michel Aoun and the March 14 Christians
allied with Saad Hariri. Sfeir said he had to ask Christian
leaders to cease personal attacks on each other after meeting
with him. The Patriarch dismissed Aoun as being with Syria
and Hizballah and advised Hariri to do more to reach out to
Christians, such as appointing more Christians in the
security services. The Ambassador commented that Aoun
appears to be involved in all the main problems facing
Lebanon by his choice of allies. The Patriarch sighed that
it appeared Christian division will probably result in
President Lahoud staying in office until his term expires in
November 2007. In closing, Sfeir asked the USG to make clear
to Syria that it will never be allowed to dominate Lebanon
again. End summary.

US READY TO HELP LEBANON
--------------


2. (C) On April 27, the Ambassador and econoff met with
Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Sfeir at his offices in
Bkirki. The Ambassador briefed Sfeir on Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora's visit to Washington last week, saying that Siniora
had done an excellent job representing Lebanon and its
issues. Sfeir agreed, saying that Minister of Justice
Charles Rizk (a Maronite minister) had earlier given him a
positive readout. Rizk had told Sfeir that the visit was
very successful. The Ambassador told Sfeir that the USG
would also like to welcome a new, democratically elected
Lebanese President to Washington, if that president is truly
representative of the new Lebanon. All the doors are open to
Lebanon.


3. (C) Meanwhile, the Ambassador continued, the USG will
continue to support Lebanon on several fronts. Among these,
the White House announced yesterday its intention to freeze
the assets of any individuals involved in the assassinations
in Lebanon. Second, the French are working on a new UNSC
resolution, which the U.S. will support. Third, the USG is
supporting efforts to extend the mandate of UNIIIC
Commissioner Serge Brammertz. The Ambassador explained that
the USG would like to move quickly in the UN. Syria must be
convinced that the U.S. won't forget Lebanon. Sfeir
expressed strong support for all the initiatives described by
the Ambassador.

A COMMUNITY DIVIDED
--------------


4. (C) Turning to internal Lebanese politics, Sfeir
commented that the Lebanese are divided, especially in the
Christian community. Sfeir pointed to how he had to ask all
Lebanese Christian leaders to cease making statements after
meeting with him because they would then use the podium in
Bkirki to launch personal attacks against each other. Sfeir
said that Syria is making matters worse by continuing to
allow the shipment of arms to Hizballah and Palestinian
groups, and by using its influence to keep Emile Lahoud in
the presidential palace. The climate is not helpful, sighed
Sfeir. He met President Lahoud on Easter, and Lahoud told
him that he will not allow the majority led by Saad Hariri
seize power. Lahoud insisted to Sfeir that the majority is
dangerous and only represents Sunni Muslims. Waving a
dismissive hand, Sfeir commented to the Ambassador that
Lahoud is "handled by the Syrians."


5. (C) Sfeir lamented how MP Michel Aoun had visited him
and then used his podium to attack other Christians. Sfeir
said that Aoun has some Christians that are still with him
despite his ties to Hizballah and pro-Syrian politicians like
Suleiman Franjieh. He explained that some Christians are
fearful of a state dominated by Sunni Muslims and so are

BEIRUT 00001307 002 OF 002


drawn to a strong figure like Aoun. Sfeir thought that
Hariri needs to hold more meetings with his Christian allies
in the March 14 coalition and make his ties to Christians
more public. Hariri, according to Sfeir, must also appoint
more Christians to the security services to assuage their
nervousness. It appears as if all security chiefs are
Muslims. (Comment: Technically, that is not true, as Michel
Suleiman is LAF Commander and Georges Khoury is G-2 chief.
Both are Maronites. End comment.) As for Aoun, Sfeir
asserted: "Aoun is with Hizballah. Hizballah is with Syria.
So Aoun is with Syria. He is with Syria without saying so."


6. (C) The Ambassador replied that the USG sees four major
problems facing Lebanon: continuation of Syrian interference,
growing Iranian interference, Hizballah's state within a
state, and Sunni extremism. Aoun in some way is involved in
each one of these problems through the people he has chosen
to surround himself with. We understand that Christians are
feeling marginalized but the answer does not lie in not Aoun
siding with Hizballah. Sfeir agreed, commenting that he did
not think the Aoun-Hizballah alliance was very sincere.
Sfeir sighed that it appeared President Lahoud will end up
serving out his term until it expires in November 2007.

LOOKING AHEAD
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7. (C) The Ambassador asked Sfeir, who mentioned meeting
with trade union officials, if he thought labor unions will
oppose Siniora's economic reform plan with violence. Sfeir
replied that they will hold a meeting on May 1, and will
complain. However, he saw no signs that they would resort to
violence. In response to the Ambassador's question of how
the USG can best help Lebanon, Sfeir replied that all current
initiatives are good. Sfeir stressed that it is important
that the U.S. take measures to make Syria understand there is
no way it will be allowed to dominate Lebanon again. Syria
must accept this, he said.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Sfeir was clear: he regrets Lahoud's continued
tenure in office, and he does not see Michel Aoun as an
appropriate replacement. Yet he seemed unwilling to take any
action to remove Lahoud or diminish Aoun's popularity. We
believe that, 17 years after Aoun's supporters publicly
humiliated him for his support of the Taif accord, Sfeir
still fears provoking the wrath of Aoun. In Sfeir's cautious
calculations, as bad as Lahoud is, an Aoun presidency is
probably considered worse.
FELTMAN