MGLE01: CODEL DODD MEETS GENERAL MICHEL AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001238 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016 TAGS: IS KDEM LE PGOV PREL SY SUBJECT: MGLE01: CODEL DODD MEETS GENERAL MICHEL AOUN Classified By: Charge Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun informed visiting Senator Christopher Dodd that it was up to the Lebanese people themselves to defend their sovereignty and not rely excessively on foreign assistance. He criticized the Siniora government for not doing an effective job in improving security and promoting economic development. General Aoun believed that his February 6th memorandum of understanding with Hizballah had significantly constrained its political ambitions and room to maneuver, specifically, Hizballah had been forced to state its goals in Lebanese terms (i.e. Shebaa Farms) rather than regional ambitions (i.e., Jerusalem). Regarding the Syrian regime and its suspected culpability in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, Aoun stated that those guilty of the crime would be held responsible, but at the same time it was critical that Lebanon re-establish amicable relations with its most important neighbor. Lastly, Senator Dodd explained the case of an abducted AMCIT minor child and the importance the U.S. government placed on the expeditious return of the child, who is presently being held in the Hizballah-controlled town of Baalbak. Michel Aoun said he would look into the matter and would try to use his influence with Hizballah to assist. End summary. ¶2. (U) Senator Christopher Dodd met with FPM Leader Michel Aoun at his residence in Rabieh on April 19. The Charge, as well as the Senator's chief of staff and military aide, also attended the meeting. LEBANON'S CHALLENGES -------------- ¶3. (C) In response to Senator Dodd's inquiry on the overall situation, Michel Aoun said that Lebanon is already a sovereign, independent country, but its people were so intimidated by almost 30 years of Syrian rule that they did not yet know how to act as full citizens. Commenting that many Lebanese are "not used to freedom," the former leader of the Lebanese Armed Forces explained that this absence of the experience of freedom was why so many citizens still look to foreign powers for guidance and decisions. Aoun said he has urged the present government to stop complaining and act, particularly in the areas of security and the economy. ¶4. (C) Aoun noted that Lebanon's economy had experienced zero growth over the past year. Lebanon was missing out on potential investment due to a lack of transparency and the uneven application of the rule of law. Aoun maintained that the Siniora government must rein in corruption and control the growth of the national budget, whose excesses over the past years had produced $38 billion in sovereign debt burden. ¶5. (C) Aoun stated that Siniora's proposed economic reform plan relied too much on increased taxes and restructuring debt loads. He said the prime minister's plan didn't address structural problems, particularly the lack of adequate investment in the agricultural and service sectors, and inequitable treatment across Lebanon's geographic areas. Assuring his listeners that the Free Patriotic Movement was not against liberalization and privatization, Aoun did insist the government should pay closer attention to the everyday economic concerns of its citizenry. ¶6. (C) Concerning Lebanon's still uncertain security situation, Aoun stated that illegal arms shipments continue to cross the country's borders. He described a recent news report that had televised a recent arms shipment and asked how was it possible that the government could not stop such open activity. He maintained that it was the government's primary responsibility to defend its borders and establish security for its citizens. ¶7. (C) He acknowledged that the difficult political situation, with a pro-reform prime minister and a pro-Syrian president, had played a role in the tenuous security environment. He implicitly agreed that it would be better if President Emile Lahoud were to leave office. But he observed that Lahoud simply wouldn't leave of his own accord, and the parliamentary majority, led by Saad Hariri's March 14 coalition, would not enter into an honest dialogue on how to replace him. Referring to the constitutional requirement that a presidential election needs a two-thirds vote in the BEIRUT 00001238 002 OF 003 parliament, Aoun stated his belief that despite their majority, the March 14 coalition will not be able to reach that threshold. HIZBALLAH: IRANIAN PROXY OR LEBANESE ENTITY -------------- ¶8. (C) In answer to Senator Dodd's question on Hizballah's intentions, Michel Aoun conceded that the organization had previously been a rogue element in Lebanese politics and had long served the interests of Iran and Syria. But he argued that his recent "memorandum of understanding" with Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah had effectively pinned the organization into a corner. He said that where Hizballah's rhetoric used to call for the liberation of all occupied territories, now it was limited to Shebaa Farms. Where Hizballah used to call for the release of all Palestinian prisoners, now it called only for the two or three Lebanese in Israeli jails; where Hizballah used to claim its weapons could be employed throughout the region, now it felt constrained to say they would be used only to liberate Lebanese territory; and where Hizballah used to claim the ill-defined "seven villages," now it limits itself to a small slice of the Lebanese-Israeli frontier. Aoun reasoned that such movement was not insignificant and should not be dismissed. ¶9. (C) When Senator Dodd expressed concern about whether Hizballah could be trusted, the former general asked whether Lebanon had any alternative. He pointed out that since the February 6th memorandum of understanding was signed, the border area in south Lebanon had been very quiet. Aoun maintained that Hizballah, despite its religious and philosophical ties to Tehran, had to create a Lebanese identity; otherwise it would be isolated and inevitably weakened. Aoun expressed confidence that Hizballah could be brought into the fold, but insisted he would remain aware of their its loyalties. When Senator Dodd advised the general to keep an eye on them, Aoun retorted he would be even more prudent and use "both eyes." LEBANON'S FUTURE -------------- ¶10. (C) Michel Aoun conveyed his concern that Lebanon had often found itself the site of other countries' battles due to its strategic and vulnerable location, as well as its sectarian composition. He said it was essential that the country not become involved in further regional strife and that it establish and rigorously protect its domestic security. Toward that end. Aoun stated it was important to disarm the Palestinian militias located inside Lebanon, first dealing with those outside the refugee camps, but resolutely following up with Palestinian arms inside the camps. ¶11. (C) He agreed with the senator that Hizballah's arms also had to be dealt with to ensure the democratic nature of Lebanon. But Aoun maintained the disarmament of Hizballah was a complicated and difficult issue that had to be resolved through discussions within Lebanon. He felt the Aoun-Nasrallah memorandum and the National Dialogue process had begun such discussions, but implied it would require external developments (i.e. Shebaa Farms) as well. ¶12. (C) Aoun commented that the Islamic world still adheres to 14th century values and Lebanon, as an Arab country, had to find a way to reconcile its freedom and democracy with the environment in which it was located. He said that Hizballah's ties with Iran could be explained in this context -- it was based on strong religious and cultural ties, but it would not preclude Hizballah from effectively participating in political life of a democratic Lebanon. "Why unnecessarily make enemies with Hizballah," Aoun concluded, "let us see what their actions will be." ¶13. (C) Concerning the relationship between Hizballah and Hamas, Aoun said it was clear the two terrorist organizations supported each other politically, but he doubted military assistance was part of the equation. He also reasoned that Hamas' acute financial condition would prevent it from extending its influence outside the occupied territories anytime soon. Aoun further proposed that due to the February 6th memorandum, Hizballah's political doctrine was steadily diverging from Hamas' hard-line positions. RELATIONSHIP WITH SYRIA -------------- BEIRUT 00001238 003 OF 003 ¶14. (C) Although "there are 1,000 reasons to believe Syria was responsible" for the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, Aoun advised that all concerned wait for the results of the UNIIIC investigation. He acknowledged that Syrian regime involvement in the crime would definitely complicate the Lebanese-Syrian relationship, but it would not terminate it. He maintained that the bilateral relationship was too important to ignore and said that everyone in Lebanon desired that there be diplomatic relations, demarcated borders, and the release of all political prisoners. He emphasized the numerous common interests between the two countries, particularly economic, and stated normalized relations would be between the nations, not individuals. ¶15. (C) He conceded that recent history and Syrian intransigence made normal relations difficult to achieve, but insisted that, "we have to continue." He acknowledged the many acts of political violence, several of which had taken the lives of former Lebanese leaders, but that the Syria-Lebanon relationship was too critical to avoid. ABDUCTED USCIT CHILD -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Senator Dodd explained to General Aoun the case of an abducted USCIT minor child and the importance of effecting an immediate return of the child to U.S. custody, consistent with U.S. and Lebanese court decisions. Aoun listened carefully and indicated he was sympathetic to the plight of the young U.S. citizen. Acknowledging his ability to deal directly with Hizballah's leadership, Aoun asked for specific details so that he could approach the organization. Embassy Beirut will provide the applicable information and diligently pursue this initiative. ¶17. (U) This message has been cleared by CODEL Dodd. MURRAY