MGLE01: PARLIAMENTARIAN SEES PARLIAMENT NEGLECTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001092 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/WERNER/DORAN/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV KPAL LE SY IR SUBJECT: MGLE01: PARLIAMENTARIAN SEES PARLIAMENT NEGLECTED BY MAJORITY Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (b). SUMMARY -------------- 1.(C) Parliamentarian Yassin Jaber is disturbed by the way the majority is ignoring the instrument of the parliament to pursue change. He said that Saad Hariri has neither the training nor the time to legislate. He painted a picture of a parliamentary majority that failed to achieve their plan "A" without preparing a plan "B". The pro-Syrian forces, while they regroup to find a new direction, are organizing for a comeback. Jaber fears that Syria may take comfort from an Arab world that eyes Lebanon as a piece in a bigger game. Summary. THE MAJORITY NEGLECTS THE PARLIAMENT, THEIR BEST TOOL -------------- ¶2. (C) Yassin Jaber received Poloff in his Beirut office after ending an unexpected session with the Minister of Finance. Jaber said his committee in the Parliament had just been presented with a law to ban insider trading on stock markets, and he was discussing it with his parliamentary colleagues. The law was encouraging to Jaber, but he was worried about what he saw as the neglect of Parliament by the March 14 group. According to Jaber, when the Minister called the committee together to discuss the law, the deputies allied to the government did not bother to show up. Jaber said he addressed this with the Minister by saying: "We are going to pass this law, not because we are your allies, but because he think it is a solid measure. But where are your allies?" ¶3. (C) Jabber argued that the March 14 alliance ignores Parliament, and as a result, no one comes to the floor and little action is taken. But he insisted that as a majority, their power lies in Parliament, not in a national dialogue among equals. He lamented that, having failed to remove the president, the majority had still not developed a plan B for the nation. "It is an unstable majority," Jaber warned, "incapable of maintaining unity once the presidency is decided." With the majority chasing President Lahoud, the Parliament is withering, according to Jaber. He described Saad Hariri was someone trapped in his palace, trying to work through the intrigues of his family and entourage. Hariri has neither the training nor time to manage his parliamentary majority, Jaber said. The actual state of the body doesn't help. Jaber said he has no staff to assist him and no experts on the payroll to clarify obscure economic or legal issues for him. "We do the best we can, and work on these things ourselves." MOVING LAHOUD FAILED; NOW WHAT? -------------- ¶4. (C) Jaber said the majority needs to pull back and develop a new strategy. He said pro-Syrian politicians are already preparing to launch a new political offensive. The Shia politician said he thought March 14 was discussing governing around President Lahoud. He saw some virtue in that, but worried that none of the March 14 allies had articulated a collective plan for Lebanon's future. "The President doesn't have to have a program," Jaber said, "but the majority must." Jaber said it would be wise for March 14 to consider two measures. The first would be the government reform plan recently unveiled by the Siniora government. He said the opposition is willing to give the government an easy time, but they are already prepared to seize the popular debate and oppose the Siniora plan with every means they can muster. So Jaber suggested that the plan be stripped of the unpopular tax increases, which make it vulnerable to populist attack, and pass the privatization and anti-corruption measures to attain international support for the reform process. Once the international community is on board, the tax could be resurrected. As an alternative, Jaber said, he advised the Minister of Finance that he could easily forget real reform and let the economy collapse. Then, in the recovery from a crisis, the economic reform package could be implemented as a rescue plan without public debate. ¶5. (C) Carrying out privatization of state owned firms was problematic because the popular imagination linked privatization of telecommunications with corruption. "Lebanese are saying that Hariri wants to buy the cell phone rights once they go private." Jaber said the privatization BEIRUT 00001092 002 OF 002 measure must go through, but the government had to demonstrate the virtues of private phone operators, and the safeguards that would prevent powerful people from manipulating the sale process. Corruption is an important concern on the Lebanese street, Jaber said. He opined that the bulk of Michel Aoun's support comes from his public anti-corruption stance. "People are poor, and they see that others have gotten rich. They want to know why." He cautioned that Lebanon was nowhere near ready to actually go through the privatization process. There are no procedures or mechanisms to manage the bidding or oversee the sales of the properties. The government can already undertake those early preparations. THE WORLD IS MIXING IN, BUT NOT FOR US -------------- ¶6. (C) Jaber was worried that the international situation would complicate Lebanon's troubles. He said that much of what happens in Lebanon was linked to the ultimate outcome of the showdown over the Iranian nuclear program. Iran was the chief source of support to Hizballah, an organization that Jaber saw as growing in influence. He said that while he was attending a European parliament meeting on the Middle East, Jaber was surprised at the admiration and support other Arab parliamentarians expressed for Hizballah and the arms of the resistance. Saudi Arabia was also a cause of concern for Jaber. He said the Saudis can put pressure on Hariri though "his financial contacts," so he has to listen when they speak. But Jaber did not believe the Saudis had Lebanon's best interests in mind. Hizballah and Palestinian groups like the PFLP-GC were willing to work for Syria. He said that pro-Syrian Lebanese such as former PM Omar Karame and the anti-Jumblatt Druse, Talal Arslan, were behind efforts to prepare a counter-force to March 14. FELTMAN