MGLE01: AOUN ADVISOR COMMENTS ON DETERIORATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001040

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2016
TAGS: IS KDEM LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: AOUN ADVISOR COMMENTS ON DETERIORATING
DIALOGUE

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Gebran Bassil, senior advisor to Michel Aoun, said
the recent deterioration in relations between the March 14
coalition and the Hizballah/Amal/Lahoud alliance was just the
latest indication the Siniora/Hariri government was incapable
of leading the country. Bassil, who appears to have
considerable influence with Aoun, stated the former general
would remain on the sidelines of the latest flare-up, but was
increasingly confident the current government was on a
downward spiral that would eventually lead to popular demand
for new parliamentary elections. He argued that the national
dialogue, which had generated such high expectations, was now
effectively finished. End summary.


2. (SBU) Gebran Bassil met with poloff on March 31 at the
conclusion of an exceptionally poor week for the Siniora
government. In addition to being on the losing end of a
public argument at the Arab Summit, Siniora was publicly
buffeted by Speaker Nabih Berri in both the press and on the
assembly floor, and scathingly attacked by Hizballah's Hassan
Nasrallah at a press conference. The week-to-forget ended
with a shouting match between March 14 leader Marwan Hamadeh
and pro-Syrian President Lahoud in an abbreviated Cabinet
session Friday night. Bassil had accompanied Michel Aoun on
a March 30 visit to the influential Maronite patriarch where,
according to Bassil, the former general asked the cleric why
Sfeir did not appreciate his leadership of the Christian
community.


3. (C) According to Bassil, who makes no secret of his
desire to see the Siniora government collapse and Saad
Hariri's Future Movement dissolve, the prime minister was now
stumbling from one disaster to the next. He described the
Khartoum episode as "someone looking for a fight" even though
he occupied a very poor position. Bassil argued that Siniora
had deliberately misinterpreted the approval given him by the
national dialogue regarding the Arab Summit. In Bassil's
view, the national dialogue members had authorized Siniora to
join the official delegation, led by Lahoud, not confront it
in front of the other Arab leaders. Instead of a united
delegation, Bassil contended that everyone in the dialogue,
including possibly Saad Hariri, was dismayed by an argument
over an issue that, in his view, was already accepted as
government policy. He insisted the national dialogue members
never intended that Siniora attend as a "second delegation."


4. (C) In his opinion, the verbal attacks by Berri and
Nasrallah were to be expected and may have short-circuited
even more serious reaction in Lebanon's Shia community.
Bassil acknowledged that Nasrallah's language had gone beyond
the pale ("...we will cut off the hands and the head of
anyone who tries to disarm us..."),but he accused Siniora of
exceptionally poor judgment and timing.


5. (C) The dedicated Aounist, who has long criticized the
Siniora government and Sunni "dominance" in Lebanon, insisted
that the Siniora government was in serious decline, with
little hope of recovery. He characterized the government's
performance as inept and remarked caustically, "We don't have
to do a thing."


6. (C) Bassil said he and other senior advisors had advised
Aoun to let the Amal/Hizballah/Lahoud troika batter the
government senseless. By taking a relative high road, the
Aounists believed they will appear to be a more reasonable
alternative. When asked whether their strategy was evolving,
Bassil stated the best path for Lebanon now would be new
parliamentary elections. He argued that the days of the
Hariri majority were numbered, especially since it now
appeared they had pushed away the powerful Shia community.
For now, he concluded, Michel Aoun will remain neutral, but
will point out at every opportunity the paralysis that has
set in with regard to political and economic progress.

COMMENT
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7. (C) It was clear Bassil considered the past week a great
success for Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement.
Bassil feels they are in the perfect political position --
with two powerful forces attacking each other, each losing
the confidence of the public (especially outside their
respective sectarian communities),while the Aounists stand
by sadly noting the absence of "real leadership." Ever since

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his return, Michel Aoun has coveted the presidency, but a
series of mishaps by the Siniora government and a faltering
of the national dialogue process, may have whetted their
appetite for even greater stakes, specifically a destruction
of the hated Hariri parliamentary majority. End comment.
FELTMAN