MGLE01: NORTHERN LEBANON POOREST DISTRICT IN THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001010

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PTER ECON SOCI LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: NORTHERN LEBANON POOREST DISTRICT IN THE
COUNTRY.

SUMMARY
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1. On March 22, econoff met with Statistics Lebanon chief
Rabih Haber to attain non-governmental statistics on poverty
in Lebanon. According to its recently completed annual
survey of households, Statistics Lebanon found that qadas in
northern Lebanon had the highest poverty rates in the
country. Akkar had the highest poverty rate with 58 percent
of households in poverty. Qadas in southern Lebanon and the
Biqa Valley enjoyed significantly lower poverty levels, with
most below the average of 20 percent. Mount Lebanon also had
poverty levels lower than 20 percent. Qadas Batroun and
Chouf had the lowest poverty rates in the country. Beirut
was remarkable, not only for its low poverty rate, but
because two-thirds of its households were in the "middle
class." Every other qada saw a majority of its households in
the "lower class" if not in poverty. Haber's study did not
find a link between education level and poverty by qada, but
did register a correlation between poverty rates and average
family size. End summary.

POVERTY WORST IN NORTH
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2. On March 22, econoff met with Rabih Haber, Managing
Director of Statistics Lebanon, a private marketing data
firm. Statistics Lebanon conducts annual house-to-house
surveys throughout Lebanon. Haber divided the survey's
households into "upper class," "middle class," "lower class,"
and "lower lower class" based on a complex formula comparing
a household's income to its family size and expenses. The
raw data is represented in para 8. below. Based on this
data, Haber was able to give a independent picture of
poverty, defined as "lower lower class," in each qada of
Lebanon. The average qada had 20 percent of households in
poverty. Haber's survey data showed that the far north of
Lebanon had the most households in poverty by a wide margin
over other parts of Lebanon. Qada Akkar had 58 percent of
households in poverty, qada Bcharre had 53 percent in
poverty, and qada El Minieh-Dinnieh had 52 percent in
poverty. Three other northern qadas, Tripoli, Zghorta, and
Koura, were home to fewer families below the poverty level
with 22, 25, and 23 percent respectively; but were still
above the average for all qadas.

BIQA AND SOUTH NOT SO POOR?
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3. Surprisingly, even qadas in the Biqa Valley and southern
Lebanon had far lower poverty rates than the north, according
to Haber's data. Qadas Sidon and Tyre on the coast each had
about 10 percent poverty, while further inland southern qadas
had higher poverty rates with 14 percent in Nabatiyeh and 21
percent in Hasbaya. Nonetheless, the worst southern qada had
a lower poverty rate than the best northern qada. In the
Biqa Valley, the percentage of families living in poverty
were: 15 percent in Baalbeck, 18 percent in West Biqa, 14
percent in Zahle, 13 percent in Rachaya, and nearly 20
percent in Hermel. It is worth noting, however, that qadas
in the Biqa Valley and in the south had a high percentage of
their households in the "lower class" just above the poverty
level defined by Haber.

MOUNT LEBANON AND
THE BEIRUT ANOMALY
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4. Walid Jumblatt's Chouf boasted a nine percent poverty
rate, the second lowest in Lebanon. The Mount Lebanon region
enjoyed poverty rates below the national average: 18 percent
in Baabda (which includes the southern suburbs of Beirut),14
percent in Metn, 12 percent in Jbeil, 13 percent in Kesrouan,
and 11 percent in Aley. Qada Batroun had the lowest poverty
rate with just seven percent. However, like in the Biqa
Valley and in the south, there were high percentages of
households in the lower class just above the poverty line.
The data from mostly Christian and Druze Mount Lebanon
appeared to suggest that the income gap between Christians
and Muslims may not be as wide as commonly perceived.


5. Qada Beirut was unique in that it had a low poverty rate
(10 percent),the highest rate of "upper class" households
(2.3 percent) and the highest percentage of "middle class"
households. According to Haber's study, two-thirds of Beirut
households were in the middle class. The next closest qada
was Batroun with 30 percent of households considered middle

BEIRUT 00001010 002 OF 003


class. Every other qada had a majority of households in the
"lower class," if not in poverty. For example, qada Tyre,
which had a poverty rate of only 11 percent, saw 75 percent
of its households in the lower class, and just 10 percent in
the middle class.

EDUCATION NOT RELATED TO POVERTY
--------------


6. Haber's survey also tracked educational attainment
status. There was no apparent correlation between the
percentage of residents in each qada with university or
higher degrees and the poverty rate in the qada. The average
for all of Lebanon was 23 percent of people had earned
university degrees or higher. One of the poorest qadas,
Akkar, had 23 percent of residents university-educated. In
El-Minieh-Dinnieh, another poor qada, 22 percent of residents
had a university degree or higher. West Biqa had the highest
university graduate rate with 34 percent. Beirut's
university graduate rate was only 26 percent despite being
the richest qada. The lowest university graduate rates were
in Bcharre (13 percent),Batroun (16 percent),and Chouf (16
percent). Bcharre had the second highest poverty rate, but
Batroun and Chouf had the lowest poverty rates, further
suggesting no obvious link to education and poverty in
Lebanon's qadas (Note: It is common practice for university
graduates to refuse any work beneath their education, which
may explain how poverty could exist in qadas with a high rate
of education. In rural areas, such as Akkar, there are less
job opportunities available at a level consistent with a
university degree. End note.)

FAMILY SIZE RELATED TO POVERTY
--------------


7. The qadas with the highest poverty rates also tended to
have the largest percentage of households with five or more
family members. Akkar, the qada with the highest poverty
rate, was also the only qada where more than a tenth of
households had 10 or more family members. El Minieh-Dinnieh,
Tripoli, Hermel, and Baalbeck all had at least five percent
of households, with 10 or more members. Qadas that are
estimated to have majority Sunni or Shia populations tended
to have larger families. Families in the mostly Druze Chouf
were only marginally bigger than in Christian-dominated Mount
Lebanon.

CLASS DESIGNATIONS BY QADA
--------------


8. Haber's raw data is presented below. The numbers may not
total 100 percent due to rounding.

In northern Lebanon:

--Akkar: Upper class: 0.33 percent; Middle class: 12 percent;
Lower class: 29 percent; Lower lower class: 58 percent;
unknown: 1 percent.

--Tripoli: Upper class: 0.39 percent; Middle class: 21
percent; Lower class: 51 percent; Lower lower class: 22
percent; unknown: 6 percent.

--Zghorta: Upper class: 0.28 percent; Middle class: 22
percent; Lower class: 44 percent; Lower lower class: 25
percent; unknown: 8 percent.

--El Minieh-Dinnieh: Upper class: 0.10 percent; Middle class:
15 percent; Lower class: 28 percent; Lower lower class: 52
percent; unknown: 5 percent.

--Bcharre: Upper class: 2.17 percent; Middle class: 15
percent; Lower class: 18 percent; Lower lower class: 53
percent; unknown: 11 percent.

--Koura: Upper class: 1 percent; Middle class: 28 percent;
Lower class: 41 percent; Lower lower class: 23 percent;
unknown: 7 percent.

In the Biqa Valley:

--Baalbeck: Upper class: 0.13 percent; Middle class: 14
percent; Lower class: 65 percent; Lower lower class: 15
percent; unknown: 6 percent.

--Hermal: Upper class: 0.06 percent; Middle class: 10
percent; Lower class: 62 percent; Lower lower class: 20

BEIRUT 00001010 003 OF 003


percent; unknown: 8 percent.

--Rachaya: Upper class: 0.66 percent; Middle class: 11
percent; Lower class: 65 percent; Lower lower class: 13
percent; unknown: 11 percent.

--West Biqa: Upper class: 0.19 percent; Middle class: 15
percent; Lower class: 60 percent; Lower lower class: 18
percent; unknown: 7 percent.

--Zahle: Upper class: 0.26 percent; Middle class: 18
percent; Lower class: 63 percent; Lower lower class: 14
percent; unknown: 5 percent.

In southern Lebanon:

--Nabatiyeh: Upper class: 0.10 percent; Middle class: 16
percent; Lower class: 63 percent; Lower lower class: 14
percent; unknown: 7 percent.

--Hasbaya: Upper class: 0.79 percent; Middle class: 6
percent; Lower class: 60 percent; Lower lower class: 21
percent; unknown: 11 percent.

--Sidon: Upper class: 0.26 percent; Middle class: 20 percent;
Lower class: 63 percent; Lower lower class: 10 percent;
unknown: 7 percent.

--Tyre: Upper class: 0.11 percent; Middle class: 10 percent;
Lower class: 75 percent; Lower lower class: 11 percent;
unknown: 4 percent.

In Mount Lebanon:

Aley: Upper class: 0.33 percent; Middle class: 25 percent;
Lower class: 60 percent; Lower lower class: 11 percent;
unknown: 5 percent.

Baabda: Upper class: 0.80 percent; Middle class: 27 percent;
Lower class: 50 percent; Lower lower class: 18 percent;
unknown: 4 percent.

Chouf: Upper class: 0.19 percent; Middle class: 21 percent;
Lower class: 65 percent; Lower lower class: 9 percent;
unknown: 5 percent.

Batroun: Upper class: 0.07 percent; Middle class: 30 percent;
Lower class: 55 percent; Lower lower class: 7 percent;
unknown: 7 percent.

Metn: Upper class: 0.84 percent; Middle class: 25 percent;
Lower class: 55 percent; Lower lower class: 14 percent;
unknown: 5 percent.

Jbeil: Upper class: 0.19 percent; Middle class: 27 percent;
Lower class: 54 percent; Lower lower class: 12 percent;
unknown: 6 percent.

Kesrouan: Upper class: 0.43 percent; Middle class: 28
percent; Lower class: 55 percent; Lower lower class: 13
percent; unknown: 4 percent.

In Beirut:

--Beirut: Upper class: 2.38 percent; Middle class: 66
percent; Lower class: 17 percent; Lower lower class: 10
percent; unknown: 4 percent.
FELTMAN