PRC/NEPAL: CHINA ENCOURAGED BY KING'S SPEECH BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 007838 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV NP CE CH SUBJECT: PRC/NEPAL: CHINA ENCOURAGED BY KING'S SPEECH BUT TAKING A "WAIT AND SEE" APPROACH REF: A. BEIJING 7693 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1042 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) China has already issued a statement of support for the agreement reached by the King and the Seven-Party Alliance to restore order and stability to Nepal, according to MFA Asian Department Division Director for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan Huang Xilian. In an April 25 meeting, Huang said China is studying how to demonstrate, through aid or political signals, its support for Nepal's new government. At the same time, Beijing is waiting to see if the King will match his words with actions. Furthermore, China believes the future of the new government depends in part on how the Maoists react to the reinstatement of Nepal's parliament. The PRC believes the Maoists "should put down their guns first" before participating in the political process and will adhere to its policy of no contact with the Maoists. The PRC does not officially see Nepal at the precipice of a civil war but contingency plans are in place to evacuate Chinese citizens if needed. MFA Asia Department Deputy Director General Luo Zhaohui departed yesterday for Nepal to assess the situation and would welcome a meeting with Ambassador Moriarty. End Summary. China Issues Statement on Nepal's Situation -------------- ¶2. (C) China has already issued a statement of support for the agreement reached the evening of April 24 between Nepal's King and the Seven Party Alliance, MFA Asian Department Division Director for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan Huang Xilian told Poloffs during an April 25 meeting. China welcomes the positive efforts by the King and the seven parties to restore the democratic political process and social order. China respects the choice of Nepal's "national polity" and its development path as determined by the King, the government and the people of Nepal. China wishes to see a peaceful, harmonious, stable and developed Nepal and is ready to continue efforts to develop neighborly relations with Nepal, Huang said. ¶3. (C) Reflecting on ref A meeting and the overnight events in Nepal, Huang said that Beijing clearly sees the benefit of regular exchanges and close contact with the United States on this issue. Huang describe the exchanges as advantageous for both sides even though at times China and the United States have had different perceptions of the events unfolding in Nepal. Future PRC Aid to Nepal: Wait and See -------------- ¶4. (C) Huang asked if the United States plans to restore aid to Nepal once the new government is installed. Poloff responded that it is very important for the international community to show support for the new government. International support will send a signal to Nepal's security forces that the new government is in charge and will give the government greater confidence in dealing with the Maoists. Poloff pointed out that this may be the last chance to stabilize Nepal and that tangible aid and political signals will be important. Huang said China is adopting a "wait and see" approach to restarting aid to Nepal because Beijing wants to confirm that the King will actually BEIJING 00007838 002 OF 003 follow up his words with concrete actions. Nepal is entering a new phase and the international community should encourage the political process in Kathmandu, he added. The PRC will give serious consideration on how to demonstrate its support of Nepal's new government. Noting the PRC's ongoing economic and very limited military assistance, Huang said Beijing is more willing to examine ways to provide additional economic and development assistance but is very cautious about offering any new military assistance. Concerned About Maoists Reaction to the King's Capitulation -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Huang said that the international community needs to carefully gauge the Maoists' attitude toward the agreement between the King and the seven parties. Huang pointed out that the Maoists "boycotted" the King's speech and have accused the seven parties of betraying the democratic process. The future development of the situation in Nepal depends, in part, on the Maoists' reaction, Huang stated. Maoists' Future Role in the Political Process -------------- ¶6. (C) Huang said that the PRC has heard rumors (NFI) that India played a crucial role during the last minute negotiations between government authorities and the Maoists in an effort to win Maoist support for the agreement reached by the King and the seven parties. Huang said the Indians appear optimistic about bringing the Maoists into the political process and asked for U.S. views. Poloff stressed the incompatibility of carrying out an armed struggle with participating in a democratic process and stressed that the first priority is for the Maoists to lay down their weapons. Huang said that Beijing agreed that the Maoists should "put down their guns first," stressing that China will continue to adhere to its policy of no contact with the Maoists. China Mystified by India's Support of the Maoists -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Huang said that Beijing was still struggling to understand why India helped broker an agreement between the Maoists and the political parties, as well as why India appears to continue to support the Maoists. Such Indian support only serves to legitimize their agenda, Huang said. Officially China and India have announced that they are not competitors in Nepal but the two countries have not openly discussed the Maoist issue. In informal conversations China has asked India about its assistance to the Maoists, but according to Huang, this is a very sensitive issue. Huang noted that foreign policy experts and the Indian media often spread rumors about China's intentions regarding Nepal, but speaking frankly, Huang said that if China wanted to expand its influence in Nepal, it had already had plenty of opportunities. Civil War Averted? -------------- ¶8. (C) Referring to the CDA's April 24 meeting with Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei (ref A),Poloff asked about Wu's characterization of Nepal as on the verge of a civil war. A BEIJING 00007838 003 OF 003 clearly uncomfortable Huang said VFM Wu was offering his personal opinions during a quickly changing situation. Huang said that his office has not begun to consider civil war scenarios and that recent events decrease the likelihood of a civil war. Stating that the April 25 demonstrations in Kathmandu appeared to be under the control of the seven parties, Huang said this demonstrated their solidarity after reaching the agreement with the King. Plans In Place to Evacuate China's Embassy -------------- ¶9. (C) Huang said that MFA Asian Department Deputy Director General Luo Zhaohui flew to Nepal yesterday around noon to assist China's Embassy. He will likely be in Kathmandu for several days to help assess the situation and calibrate Beijing's response. Huang suggested that DDG Luo would welcome a meeting with Ambassador Moriarty. The MFA has issued a warning advising tourists and people on short stays in Nepal to depart but has not moved to evacuate Embassy staff. The PRC Embassy has requested that Nepal provide additional security. Huang said that plans are in place to evacuate the Embassy but that there has not been a personnel drawdown. SEDNEY