PRC/AFRICA: PREPARATIONS FOR NOVEMBER CHINA-AFRICA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 007835 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV AGOA ECON EAID TW CH SUBJECT: PRC/AFRICA: PREPARATIONS FOR NOVEMBER CHINA-AFRICA COOPERATION FORUM REF: A. NDJAMENA 529 ¶B. 05 BEIJING 17598 Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) China has invited the heads of state, foreign ministers and commerce ministers of 47 African countries to Beijing for the triennial Forum on China- Africa Cooperation (FOCAC),to be held November 1-5, according to an MFA Deputy Division Director. The MFA is already grappling with the logistical challenges of the event, including accommodations and motorcade routes. China will use the forum to announce a new initiative to deepen Sino-African ties. Chinese and African officials may exchange several high-level visits prior to November to further strengthen Sino- African ties. The PRC will likely continue to exert pressure on the six African countries that still recognize Taiwan (Ref A) to switch recognition to Beijing in the run-up to the FOCAC summit. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff discussed preparations for November's FOCAC summit in Beijing with MFA Africa Department Deputy Division Director Tian Lin, in the Office of the PRC FOCAC Follow-up Committee. Poloff also met with various members of the African diplomatic corps in Beijing. Ref B presents an overview of FOCAC's purpose and background. 47 Heads of State Invited -------------- ¶3. (C) Preparations have begun in earnest for the triennial FOCAC, to be held November 1-5 in Beijing. Earlier this year, President Hu Jintao sent invitations to the heads of state of all 47 African countries with whom the PRC has diplomatic relations. Separately, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and Commerce Minister Bo Xilai sent joint invitations to their counterparts in each of the 47 countries. Tian said the MFA has already received many positive responses. Contacts from African Embassies in Beijing indicate that Ethiopian Prime Minister Zenawi, Liberian President Johnson-Sirleaf, Namibian President Polhamba and Zimbabwean President Mugabe have already accepted the invitations. Tian said he also anticipates several more high-level visits between China and African countries before November to further strengthen Sino-African ties. ¶4. (C) According to Tian, FOCAC 2006 will commence with a working-level "senior officials meeting" November 1 and 2, during which official agreements or documents will be hashed out or reviewed, followed by a ministerial on November 3. The summit itself will be held on November 4 and 5, Tian said. ¶5. (C) Tian noted the forum represents the largest summit-style diplomatic undertaking in terms of numbers of heads of state and their delegations since the PRC's founding. Each African delegation will comprise the head of state (or designee),the two ministers and seventeen additional persons, which Tian said is standard protocol for state visits. Tian said the MFA is already grappling with the hotel, security and motorcade challenges of accommodating so many high-level delegations simultaneously. Though the MFA is seeking to minimize disruption to traffic and business, Tian acknowledged that the first week of November will probably not be a convenient time to be in Beijing. PRC Promising Something New -------------- ¶6. (C) The MFA is still coordinating with other PRC ministries and government entities to develop specific proposals for FOCAC 2006, according to Tian. In 2000, the PRC focused on debt relief and in 2003, tariff reductions. Both topics will continue to receive attention, along with health care cooperation, but the Africans are pushing for a new agenda. As a result, the PRC likely will use FOCAC to announce another new initiative to deepen PRC/Africa ties, Tian added, though declining to say what the new initiative might entail. A Beijing-based South African diplomat told BEIJING 00007835 002 OF 002 Poloff that there is absolutely no African consensus on how to approach China and commented that FOCAC is essentially China's show. Other Beijing-based African diplomats concur. Ethiopia is officially the co-Chair of the 2006 summit, but one Ethiopian diplomat here told Poloff that the Ethiopian Embassy does not know the agenda for the summit and has, to his knowledge, had little or no input into the process. How Many Countries Will Attend? -------------- ¶7. (C) The PRC welcomes all 47 "friendly" African countries to participate in the FOCAC summit, Tian said. Asked whether China anticipates any of the six African countries that recognize Taiwan (Chad, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Malawi, Swaziland and Sao Tome and Principe) to switch diplomatic recognition to the PRC prior to November, Tian said China will be happy if more countries opt for diplomatic relations with the PRC. Any country switching recognition to the PRC will be welcome at the summit no matter how close to November the switch occurs, Tian added. Tian told Poloff that as of April 24 the PRC has not yet decided if it will permit any of the six countries in the Taiwan camp to participate in FOCAC 2006 as observers. ¶8. (C) Within the Beijing-based African diplomatic community, diplomats from two West African countries said they heard rumors that Chad, Burkina Faso and the Gambia will switch recognition to the PRC sometime in June, but diplomats from eight other African countries separately said they had not heard any such rumors. Most Beijing-based African diplomats say they would not be surprised if additional African countries break with Taiwan prior to the FOCAC summit. Several diplomats from Zimbabwe and Zambia noted that Taiwan is increasingly burdensome for countries such as Malawi and Swaziland as regional organizations such as the South African Development Community (SADC) deepen economic ties with the PRC. ¶9. (C) Most of our Beijing-based African diplomatic contacts surmise that any decisions by African countries to join the PRC/Africa bloc will involve "dollar diplomacy" or other incentives, but they underscore that China's economic might is a potent draw for diplomatic relations with the PRC to most African countries. They add that China continues to exert diplomatic and economic pressure on hold-outs (Ref A). A Zimbabwean Minister-Counselor and First Secretary noted that Malawi was permitted to attend SIPDIS FOCAC as an observer in both 2000 and 2003. Despite rumors in 2003 that Malawi was considering switching recognition, the switch did not occur, the Zimbabwean diplomats noted. SEDNEY