NDU DELEGATION MEETS WITH CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 007115


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2025
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR CH TW
SUBJECT: NDU DELEGATION MEETS WITH CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF
LIANG GUANGLIE

Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Kin Moy.
Reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Chief of the PLA General Staff Liang Guanglie
advocated increased bilateral mil-to-mil exchanges,
called Chen Shui-bian's cessation of the NUC and NUG a
"dangerous step" and gave a general explanation for
China's increased military spending in his April 11
meeting with a delegation from the National Defense
University. He cited salary increases, training
needs, increased fuel prices and the need to modernize
information technology as reasons for increases in
military budgets. NDU President General Michael Dunn
noted that outside suspicions of China's intentions
with regard to its fifteen straight years of double-
digit defense budget increases can only be allayed by
increased transparency. End summary.

Mil-to-mil Exchanges
--------------


2. (C) Chief of the PLA General Staff Liang Guanglie
assessed that U.S.-China relations have achieved good
momentum in an April 11 meeting with a delegation from
the U.S. National Defense University led by General
Michael Dunn. Liang pointed to frequent high-level
visits, including Hu Jintao's planned April 20 visit
to Washington, as having great significance in
furthering cooperation between the two countries.
Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Guo Boxiong
will visit Washington this year at the invitation of
Secretary Rumsfeld and Liang expressed hope that the
bilateral military-to-military relationship would
progress in parallel with overall bilateral ties.
Liang cited interest in deepening exchanges in policy
studies, ship visits, humanitarian relief efforts,
non-traditional security threats and military law.


3. (C) General Dunn outlined U.S. hopes for closer
ties between the two NDUs, particularly increased
exchanges of researchers and use of videoconferences.
He advocated pursuing joint simulations on emerging
issues to gain insights on how the two countries might
interact in a situation where common interests are at
stake. General Dunn noted the importance of increased
transparency in China's military modernization to
allaying outside suspicions about a potential Chinese
threat.

Taiwan
--------------


4. (C) On Taiwan, Liang criticized Chen Shui-bian's
recent move to cease the function of the National
Unification Council and cease the application of
National Unification Guidelines calling it a
"dangerous step toward Taiwan independence." Chen
Shui-bian has been promoting incremental movement
toward Taiwan independence since taking office and is
the main source of problems for peace and stability
across the Strait, Liang asserted. Beijing
appreciates the U.S. commitment to observe the three
Sino-U.S. Joint Communiques and President Bush's
"opposition" to Taiwan independence. At the same
time, Beijing hopes that the United States will not
send any "wrong signals" to Taiwan and will work
together with China to stop Taiwan independence.
General Dunn said he understood China's views on this
issue and pointed out that the U.S. Government had
played an active role with the leadership in Taiwan to
support and preserve stability.

China's Military Spending
--------------


5. (C) General Liang cited outside interest in
China's increases in defense spending, which he noted
would rise to USD 35.1 billion in 2006. Outside
reaction has been negative because outsiders have a
poor understanding of China and because some people
want to use this as an opportunity to promote a "China
Threat" theory, he asserted. Liang claimed that
increases in salaries for officers, enlisted and
pensions for retirees were a heavy burden for China's
2.3 million military forces. Current officers'
salaries are lower than those for civil servants in
China's underdeveloped West. The Central Government
is supportive of the PLA, Liang said, and has agreed
to increase military salaries. Nonetheless, if
salaries increase only 1000 RMB per person per year
(USD 125),the PLA needs a RMB 30 billion (USD 3.75
billion) increase.


6. (C) A second reason for increased spending is the
need for training to develop better personnel, Liang
stated. Although China has 60 military academies and
institutes, most are poorly equipped. Average annual
training costs per PLA member are currently far too
low, he said. Increases in prices, particularly the
world price of oil, constitutes another reason for
military budget increases, Liang continued. With its
large number of vehicles and other equipment, the PLA
consumes considerable amounts of fuel.


7. (C) Liang listed the fourth reason for the
spending increase as the need for the PLA to modernize
its equipment, particularly in information systems.
Assuring the development of China's economy will
require more investment in the military. The
increases are limited, Liang maintained, and pose no
threat to other countries. The present objective is
constructing a more technologically advanced (Note:
Liang's term was translated as "informationalized")
military that can win a high-tech
("informationalized") war.


8. (C) General Dunn pointed out that China's military
budget has increased by 3.5 times in the last 8 years.
Countries regard other countries' military spending as
a barometer of their intentions. In this sense it is
difficult to explain a sustained increase of 10-15
percent over a fifteen-year period, which is China's
increase. Couple increased defense spending with
increased economic power and influence and people will
become suspicious unless the trend is clearly and
adequately explained. The burden therefore falls to
China to explain to others how the increases are being
used. U.S. political leaders are also interested in
learning when the increases are projected to slow down
and what they can expect to see in the future, he
noted. Liang reiterated that overall modernization of
the PLA is China's aim and maintained that despite
spending increases, the PLA lags far behind other
modern militaries.


RANDT