SCHOLAR DISCUSSES PRC ANALYSIS OF QDR AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 004761 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016 TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL CH JP SUBJECT: SCHOLAR DISCUSSES PRC ANALYSIS OF QDR AND TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY, ROLE OF XIONG GUANGKAI, JAPAN-CHINA ISSUES Classified By: Political External Chief Edgard Kagan. Reason 1.4 (d) QDR and Transformational Diplomacy -------------- ¶1. (C) Chinese analysts are closely scrutinizing the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and Secretary Rice's "Transformational Diplomacy" speech, according to Professor Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of Strategic Studies at Renmin University. During a meeting with Poloff March 8, Jin, a prominent commentator on U.S.-China and Asian issues, said analysis of the QDR focused on the exact number of mentions of China in the document and on the context of the PRC's description as a "country at strategic crossroads" and as a country with the potential to compete militarily with the United States. Secretary Rice's Transformational Diplomacy Initiative raised concerns about "real U.S. intentions" behind the focus on democratization and plans to send more diplomats into the PRC. PLA International Affairs: Xiong Out of the Game -------------- --- ¶2. (C) Asked about the role of recently retired Deputy Chief of General Staff General Xiong Guangkai, Jin stated that Xiong no longer has much of a role in the PLA's international activities because he has left his most influential position as commander of the PLA General Staff's Second Directorate. President Hu Jintao's principles of professionalization, institutionalization and division of labor, Jin said, do not concentrate power in individuals, but designate responsibilities to be handled by the proper authority. MG Zhang Ginseng, who took over responsibility for the PLA Second Directorate, will handle the PLA's international affairs, according to Jin. PRC-Japan -------------- ¶3. (C) The development of U.S.-China relations may offer a model for Sino-Japan rapprochement, Jin stated. He discussed his involvement in a recent Sino-Japan seminar in Tokyo sponsored by Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe's office. The participants were mainly working-level Japanese career officials who work on foreign policy. Jin presented a paper on the development of U.S.-China ties, which he said his interlocutors viewed as a model for the recovery of strained Sino-Japan relations. Though Jin said that most of the Japanese participants agreed on the need to restore stable long-term relations with the PRC, Jin said, some officials confessed a "deep hearted" fear about a "rising China" which constrains them from promoting good relations with the PRC. ¶4. (C) Jin claimed that his Japanese interlocutors described feeling a sense of "drift" and discomfort with Japan's strategic direction. Although Prime Minister Koizumi is offering an activist foreign policy strategy for Japan, it is not universally accepted among career officials that his direction is the right one. Jin said some participants expressed hope that other politicians will not follow PM Koizumi in playing up Yasukuni Shrine visits. RANDT