INSTITUTIONS IN BEIJING QUIETLY WARNED NOT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 003747 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2026 TAGS: PGOV ASEC CH TW JA SUBJECT: INSTITUTIONS IN BEIJING QUIETLY WARNED NOT TO ALLOW TAIWAN-RELATED DEMOS REF: A) STATE 32853 B) BEIJING 3627 C) BEIJING 3626 D) AIT TAIPEI 597 E) AIT TAIPEI Classified By: CDA David S. Sedney for Reasons 1.4 (b/d) (C) Chinese security authorities have quietly warned academic institutions, think tanks and other organizations in Beijing not to allow Taiwan-related demonstrations to materialize in the wake of Chen Shui-bian's announcement on February 27 that the National Unification Council would cease to function, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) scholar Gu Guoliang (protect) told Polmincouns on March 1. Chinese security officials are addressing the current situation using the approach that they employed effectively in October 2005 in the aftermath of Prime Minister Koizumi's visit to Yasukuni Shrine to prevent anti-Japanese demonstrations from taking place. The approach reflects lessons learned from the anti-Japanese demonstrations of April 2005, which developed suddenly in ways unanticipated by security officials. The Chinese Government is concerned that if Taiwan-related demonstrations take place, the political impact of the demonstrations could be difficult for the government to manage, given the harshly negative emotions (Ref B) that Chen's announcement has generated in the Mainland, according to Gu. Comment: There are no indications at this point that the Chinese Government would see demonstrations as in its interest as it seeks to manage the complex policy challenges presented by Chen's announcement. End Comment. Sedney