INSTITUTIONS IN BEIJING QUIETLY WARNED NOT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 003747

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2026
TAGS: PGOV ASEC CH TW JA
SUBJECT: INSTITUTIONS IN BEIJING QUIETLY WARNED NOT TO
ALLOW TAIWAN-RELATED DEMOS

REF: A) STATE 32853 B) BEIJING 3627 C) BEIJING 3626

D) AIT TAIPEI 597 E) AIT TAIPEI

Classified By: CDA David S. Sedney for Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

(C) Chinese security authorities have quietly warned academic
institutions, think tanks and other organizations in Beijing
not to allow Taiwan-related demonstrations to materialize in
the wake of Chen Shui-bian's announcement on February 27 that
the National Unification Council would cease to function,
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) scholar Gu Guoliang
(protect) told Polmincouns on March 1. Chinese security
officials are addressing the current situation using the
approach that they employed effectively in October 2005 in
the aftermath of Prime Minister Koizumi's visit to Yasukuni
Shrine to prevent anti-Japanese demonstrations from taking
place. The approach reflects lessons learned from the
anti-Japanese demonstrations of April 2005, which developed
suddenly in ways unanticipated by security officials. The
Chinese Government is concerned that if Taiwan-related
demonstrations take place, the political impact of the
demonstrations could be difficult for the government to
manage, given the harshly negative emotions (Ref B) that
Chen's announcement has generated in the Mainland, according
to Gu. Comment: There are no indications at this point that
the Chinese Government would see demonstrations as in its
interest as it seeks to manage the complex policy challenges
presented by Chen's announcement. End Comment.
Sedney