MFA, SCHOLARS ON POSTPONED ASEAN-RELATED MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 024597 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016 TAGS: PREL ASEAN CH JA SUBJECT: MFA, SCHOLARS ON POSTPONED ASEAN-RELATED MEETINGS REF: A. MANILA 4984 ¶B. BEIJING 24241 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Dan Shields. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) China is amenable to rescheduling the postponed ASEAN-related meetings in Cebu in mid-January, but if the dates slip further it could be difficult for Beijing, MFA officials and scholars told us in separate meetings. Japan and China had planned to announce at an Abe-Wen meeting in Cebu a "joint history summit" for studying WWII issues that would convene December 26-28. It is not clear what will happen now with regard to that initiative. ASEAN- Plus-Three remains China's preferred vehicle for discussing Asian issues. Beijing remains open to a stronger role for APEC and to United States involvement in the East Asian Summit (EAS). MFA officials said India poses no threat to Chinese interests in Southeast Asia. Scholars said improving ties between Beijing and Tokyo could thwart some ASEAN members' attempts to play these donors off against each other. Beijing's increased attention to Southeast Asia in 2006 reflected the increasing role Southeast Asian trade plays in China's bordering provinces. End Summary. Re-scheduling ASEAN-related Meetings still Uncertain -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) China has agreed to ASEAN's proposed mid- January dates for rescheduling the EAS and other ASEAN-related meetings postponed from December 13-14 in Cebu due to the typhoon in the Philippines, but China might find it difficult to attend a later summit, incoming MFA Deputy Director General for Southeast Asian Affairs Tong Xiaoling told Polmincouns December 14. Tong said Beijing has heard that the ROK has scheduling conflicts with the January dates. From Beijing's perspective, as key economic agreements involving China were completed on December 8 before the Summit was postponed (ref A),postponement into March might result in pressure to skip the 2006 meetings altogether. Singapore has announced that the 2007 ASEAN Summit meetings will be held in November. Possible Missed Opportunities -------------- ¶3. (C) Postponement should not affect the content of the ASEAN-related meetings assuming they can be rescheduled soon, Tong said, but if the meetings are put off too long, it may diminish the current positive momentum in China-Japan relations. China was to coordinate the long-delayed Northeast Asian Trilateral meeting and Premier Wen was to have met with PM Abe in Cebu. A key element of the Wen-Abe meeting, Japanese Political Counselor Kazuhiro Suzuki told us, was to be an announcement a "joint history summit" for studying WWII issues to convene December 26-28. Now, it is not clear how that initiative will be rolled out. China Prefers ASEAN-Plus-Three to EAS -------------- ¶4. (C) The now-delayed East Asian Summit (EAS) could be worthwhile if it clarifies the benefits of this ASEAN-Plus-Six regional group and defines its role vis-a-vis other parts of the Asian regional architecture, Han Feng, Deputy Director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Asia-Pacific Institute, told poloff. But China would not be too concerned about postponement of the EAS because it as yet does not see the forum as a serious place for practical action or strategic coordination, according to Zhai Kun, a Southeast Asia expert at China's Institute for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) who attended the December 7 East Asia Congress in Malaysia. ASEAN-Plus-Three is the most practical forum for China because it combines the key Northeast Asian countries with ASEAN and has already taken practical steps on Asian economic integration, Zhai said. MFA's Tong confirmed that ASEAN-Plus-Three is China's preferred forum for East Asian integration. DDG Tong said China is following ASEAN's lead and no actor other than ASEAN can lead an Asian regional group without provoking suspicion. Japan's promotion BEIJING 00024597 002 OF 003 of the ASEAN-Plus-Six framework may have already begun to generate some regional suspicion, CICIR's Zhai said. China Does Not Object To U.S. Participation in EAS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) MFA's Tong emphasized that China is open to a greater role for the United States and asked whether the United States had applied to participate. Polmincouns said the United States is concentrating on strengthening the forums in which it already participates such as APEC and ARF. In a separate conversation, CICIR's Zhai Kun told Poloff the EAS plays little practical role and could not be an effective forum for strategic discussion without the United States, so China welcomes the United States' participation. China's Attitude about APEC Gradually Improving -------------- -- ¶6. (C) Poloffs emphasized that the United States does not want to detract from APEC, which we see as the preeminent Asian economic forum, or from the ARF. China's attitude toward these groups is becoming more positive, CASS's Han said, marking an evolution from previous attitudes that APEC and the ARF were designed to contain China in Asia. With China's entry into the WTO, its attitude toward APEC in particular has improved tremendously, he said. Taiwan's participation in APEC limits China's willingness to have the forum used for non-economic issues, but APEC has proven a useful model for bringing Taiwan into discussion of regional economic issues. In Asia, only APEC has the ability to become a regional force like NATO or the European Union, Han said, not ASEAN-Plus- Three or ASEAN-Plus-Six. India Not a Threat, Japan a Donor Competitor -------------- ¶7. (C) India is not a threat to China's interests in Southeast Asia, MFA's Tong said, noting specifically that China "is not competing with anyone over Burma." CICIR's Zhai agreed that India has little current presence in Southeast Asia, although he noted the potential for greater involvement. ASEAN officials have expressed unhappiness with India's poor preparations for participation in the EAS, CASS' Han told us. In particular, ASEAN complains that Indian officials have done little on FTA issues. ¶8. (C) Relative to India, Japan is more of a competitor with China in Southeast Asia, but this competition can be positive for ASEAN member states, scholars Zhai and Han said. Japan provides ten times as much development aid to Southeast Asia as China does, Zhai said, and tends to focus on "high end" aid like financial and legal training, while China provides basic infrastructure and other assistance. Trade tends to target different markets, they said, citing as an example that in both Vietnam and Indonesia, China and Japan have found that their motorcycle exports are not in direct competition because Japanese motorbikes are high-end while Chinese motorbikes are less expensive and appeal to a different client base. ASEAN member states frequently try to balance the influence China and Japan have in their societies, Han said, noting that improved Sino- Japanese relations might make it more difficult for Southeast Asian countries to play Japan and China off against each other in competition for aid and resources. Focus on ASEAN Reflects Chinese Domestic Issues -------------- -- ¶9. (C) Even with postponement of the ASEAN-related meetings, MFA's Tong noted that Southeast Asia had received a great deal of attention from China's leadership in 2006, citing the October ASEAN-China Commemorative Summit in Nanning and President Hu's November visit to Vietnam, Laos and APEC (Ref B). CICIR's Zhai Kun said the Nanning Summit was significant because it demonstrated the importance of Southeast Asian trade in China's domestic politics. Influential party secretaries from China's Southern and Southwestern provinces have a strong interest in maintaining their economic growth, which is closely tied to Southeast Asia. Trade with ASEAN countries is BEIJING 00024597 003 OF 003 important to economic development in Yunnan, Guangzhou and Guangxi Provinces, Zhai said, while Fujian and other coastal regions have recently struck favorable deals with Southeast Asia to meet their rapidly growing energy needs (Ref B). As a result, party leaders in these provinces have pressed the Central Government to focus on trade with Southeast Asia. Randt