PRC/IRAN: THINK-TANKER DISCUSSES IRANIAN VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 024423 SIPDIS SIPDIS INR FOR KNIGHT E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2026 TAGS: PREL MNUC ETTC IR CH SUBJECT: PRC/IRAN: THINK-TANKER DISCUSSES IRANIAN VIEWS ON IMPACT OF NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR TEST Classified By: Political External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Iranian diplomats told Chinese officials in October that the North Korean test will "derail" UNSC actions against Iran, according to Li Guofu, of the MFA-affiliated China Institute of International Studies. Li said that Beijing is redefining its national security interests and is changing its approach to several issues. Li posits that in the near term China will not reach a point at which it must consider sacrificing its economic interests in Iran. Li argues that while China's foreign policy has not changed under President Hu Jintao, the attitude of foreign policy makers has. PRC foreign policy makers view China as being able to act more independently, with more freedom of choice in how to pursue Beijing's national security interests. End Summary. North Korean Nuclear Test Good For Iran -------------- ¶2. (C) During an October 16 meeting with visiting INR Analyst Greg Knight and poloff, MFA-affiliated China Institute for International Studies (CIIS) Division Director for South Asia, Middle East and African Studies Li Guofu said that he held consultations with Iranian diplomats in Beijing immediately after the October 9 North Korean nuclear test. Li stated that his Iranian diplomatic contacts were very "happy" abou the current situation, believing it will derail UNSC action on Iran,s own nuclear program. The Iranians told Li that Tehran believes the North Korean nuclear test has helped to strengthen its hand at the UNSC and has diverted the international community's focus away from Iran. Tehran will watch the UN's reaction to North Korea very closely as it does not think UN pressure will be successful in pushing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. Iran Lower on China's National Security Priority List -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Beijing is currently "redefining" its national security interests and is changing its approach to several issues, according to Li. The Iranian nuclear issue is considered a "small issue" because China does not feel threatened by Tehran,s provocations. Li said North Korean is "much more immediate" for Beijing because it has a direct impact on China's security. In the case of Iran, Li argues that China is experimenting with its foreign policy approach. Beijing is not strong enough to project its interests and influence in the Middle East, where other international powers hold greater sway. However, the current situation is allowing China to attempt to expand its role. Li claimed that Beijing is benefiting from Middle Eastern frustrations with U.S. policies in the region, particularly the Iraq War and the Israeli "invasion" of Lebanon. ¶4. (C) China recognizes it is being used by Iran to neutralize U.S. pressure, according to Li. China hews closely to Russia's position, allowing Moscow to &take the lead," according to Li. While following Russia's lead, China has also paid "great attention" to cultivating good will with EU countries regarding China's "constructive and cooperative role" in helping to negotiate a diplomatic settlement. Li stated that using this approach also helps Beijing to protect its economic and energy interests in Iran. He added that in the near term it is very unlikely that China would need to sacrifice its economic interests in Iran in order to preserve international nuclear nonproliferation regimes. At the same time, Li pointed out that Beijing would honor P5 plus one decisions on sanctioning Iran. Hu Jintao: Jiang's Policies With New Operating Style? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) China's foreign policy has not changed under President Hu Jintao, stated Li, noting that Hu's wording, phrasing and policy choices are consistent with his predecessor Jiang Zemin. However, Li claimed there has been a change in the operating attitude of Beijing's foreign policy makers. PRC foreign policy makers now view China as more independent than before in handling different foreign policy issues. Li said that they are more focused on China's national interests than on worrying about "upsetting the United States." In foreign policy circles there is a sense that China has lost many opportunities because it considered first the U.S. reaction to Beijing's foreign policy choices. Now China feels it has more freedom to take the initiative in pursuing its policy interests, according to Li. CIIS Plays INR-like Role? -------------- ¶6. (C) In response to Knight's brief description of INR,s role within the Department, Li stated that CIIS is closely tied to the MFA and functions in much the same way. Li said that he and his colleagues consult regularly with China's key foreign policy makers. ¶7. (U) INR Analyst Knight cleared this cable. Randt