PRC-THAILAND: WEN JIABAO POSTPONES BANGKOK VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 024231 SIPDIS SIPDIS TREASURY FOR OASI/ISA (DOHNER AND CUSHMAN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM PTER TH CH SUBJECT: PRC-THAILAND: WEN JIABAO POSTPONES BANGKOK VISIT BECAUSE OF SENIOR ECONOMIC DIALOGUE REF: BEIJING 23354 Classified By: Political Section External Unit Chief Edgard Kagan. Reasons 1.4(b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Premier Wen Jiabao has canceled a planned trip to Bangkok that would have been the highest-level PRC visit since the coup. The trip, which Wen had promised to make during an October bilateral meeting with General Surayud at the China-ASEAN Summit, will be rescheduled because of Wen's decision to be in Beijing for the United States-China Senior Economic Dialogue. China has urged the Thai to move more quickly in restoring elected government, but this position had nothing to do with the postponement of Wen's trip to Bangkok, MFA officials responsible for Southeast Asia told us. They also commented on internal Thai politics, former PM Thaksin's visit to China and Islamic extremism in Southern Thailand. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Premier Wen Jiabao has postponed his planned December 15 trip to Thailand so that he can be in Beijing for the United States-China Senior Economic Dialogue, MFA Southeast Asia Division official Wang Hongliu told POLOFF December 1. Wang, the Philippines desk officer, said Wen will make a brief state visit to the Philippines and then return to Beijing following the December 11-13 East Asia Summit and ASEAN-Plus-Three meetings in Cebu. Wen's visit would have been the highest-level PRC trip to Bangkok since the coup. During the China-ASEAN Summit in October (reftel),Wen had promised General Surayud, the head of Thailand's interim government, that he would make the visit in December, but the trip will have to be rescheduled, Wang said. No Link To Criticism Of Coup -------------- ¶3. (C) The postponement had nothing to do with China's muted criticism of Thailand's interim government, Wang said. MFA Southeast Asia Division Director and former PRC political counselor in Thailand Wu Xiangyou said PM Wen Jiabao, in his October meeting with Surayud, urged the Thai to write a new Constitution and return to elected government as soon as possible. China was satisfied with Surayud's response that Bangkok is working hard on drafting a new constitution and will return to elected government within a year, he added. ¶4. (C) Surayud was selected over other more politically experienced leaders because he does not represent any specific social interest group and was seen in Bangkok as more neutral, Wu said. Asked about concerns that Surayud might grow to like power and not be eager to return to democratic or constitutional rule, Wu said he believed Surayud had already found that ruling Thailand was a "headache he could do without." Instability caused by disgruntled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra supporters, poverty and a lack of unity among Thaksin's opponents after the coup are among those headaches, Wu suggested. He believed that a new Thai Constitution would contain elements that provide greater restraints on the military's power in order to make this Thailand's last coup. Thaksin in China -------------- ¶5. (C) Press reports from Bangkok suggesting that Thaksin's early November visit to Beijing was aimed to disrupt Surayud's visit to China for the China-ASEAN summit were "ridiculous," Wu said. First, when applying for his visa at the PRC Embassy in London, Thaksin's personal secretary made it explicit that Thaksin would not arrive in China until November 1, the day after Surayud was slated to leave China. Second, Chinese officials issuing the visa made it clear that no Chinese officials would meet with Thaksin while he was in Beijing. Third, Thaksin never traveled to southern China where the Wen-Surayud meeting took pace. Islamic Terrorism Of Concern -------------- ¶6. (C) China offers no military aid or support to Thailand's counterterrorism efforts but is concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism in Southern Thailand, Wu said. Noting that he had visited the region while serving in Bangkok, Wu said that residents of the Muslim South are extremely wary of outsiders, even Thai citizens from the rest of the country. Chinese traders have been killed while attempting to visit BEIJING 00024231 002 OF 002 the region to sell goods, Wu said. Southern Thailand hosts a Wahabbi school that is the largest or second-largest in the world, he claimed. Beijing is not aware of any evidence linking the Southern Thai Muslims to international terrorism, but believes the potential exists for such terrorism. While the violence and Islamic extremism in the Thai South is destabilizing, the PRC rarely addresses it with Bangkok because Beijing sees it as an internal Thai affair, Wu said. Randt