CHINESE SCHOLARS, MEDIA APPLAUD PM ABE'S VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 021226 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI CH JN SUBJECT: CHINESE SCHOLARS, MEDIA APPLAUD PM ABE'S VISIT Classified By: Classified by Political Minister Counselor Daniel Shields. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Japanese Prime Minister Abe's October 8 visit to Beijing drew praise from our contacts in Chinese media and academia. China's print and broadcast outlets provided upbeat blanket coverage of the visit, complete with page one headlines and color photos. While in general our contacts were favorable in their assessments of PM Abe's appearance in Beijing, they cautioned that a lack of movement on key bilateral issues such as Yasukuni Shrine could hinder positive developments in the future. The Chinese public's low opinion of Japan will likely remain unchanged in the near term. However, Post is unaware of any attempts to organize anti-Japan protests during PM Abe's visit (which occurred at the end of the Chinese National Day holiday week.) The tone in online forums was considerably more moderate than the usual bashing that occurs when Japan is in Chinese headlines. End Summary. Major Media Coverage -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minster Abe's visit dominated the news cycle October 8 and 9. The China Central Television national evening news on October 8 presented a lengthy, straightforward report at the top of its 7:00 p.m. broadcast. The next day almost every major daily newspaper ran comprehensive coverage under banner page one headlines accompanied by color pictures. The progressive commercial tabloid The Beijing News printed a photograph on its front page of PM Abe and President Hu Jintao meeting at the Great Hall of the People. The Global Times, a popular paper under the editorial umbrella of the People's Daily that focuses on international affairs, ran a special segment that took up its entire second page. In addition, PM Abe's visit was the top story on China's primary Internet news portals on the morning of October 9, although it became a secondary link after the official Xinhua News Agency started carrying reports of a nuclear test by North Korea. Strict Propaganda Guidelines -------------- ¶3. (C) The Propaganda Department issued strict guidelines at the end of last week ordering all media outlets to publish only state-run Xinhua News Service wire copy, several contacts told us. The Xinhua �0A;reports, which ran on popular news portals, emphasized that President Hu Jintao along with National People's Congress Chairman Wu Bangguo and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao all met with PM Abe. The Beijing News ran a special sidebar with excerpts of the seven-point joint press communique, which contained calls for enhancing exchanges and strengthening political, economic, social and security ties. The communique also expressed bilateral concern about developments on the Korean Peninsula, including the possibility of a nuclear test. "A Harmonious World" -------------- ¶4. (C) Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Scholar Gu Guoliang said he and other scholars had been told by government officials on October 2 that there would be an announcement on October 4 that PM Abe would visit China on October 8. The government had urged the scholars to help persuade the Chinese public that it is in China's interest to have better relations with Japan. China is a major power and it needs good relations with the other major powers, starting with the United States and including Japan. This is part of President Hu's "harmonious world" concept, Gu stated. ¶5. (C) Gu said he understands PM Abe will continue to decline to clarify publicly whether he will visit the Yasukuni Shrine, but Gu believes there must have been some sort of private commitment by PM Abe not to make a shrine visit, at least in the near future, because if PM Abe visits Yasukuni soon this would be a very negative development for President Hu. Gu expressed the view that Japanese domestic political considerations make any visit to Yasukuni by PM Abe in BEIJING 00021226 002 OF 002 the near future unlikely. Once PM Abe won his LDP party leadership position, he could afford to worry less about those nationalistic voters within the LDP who favor the shrine visits and to worry more, with an eye to next summer's Upper House elections, about wooing away from other parties those centrist voters who oppose shrine visits, Gu stated. ¶6. (C) PM Abe's visit is a "pleasant surprise" for China and constitutes "a new open door for better relations," said Wang Feng, an international news editor at the influential bi-weekly Caijing Magazine. The trip was seen as a success for the Chinese government, Wang assessed, adding that the Chinese side lost no face but made "many concessions." In Wang's view, Chinese officials were too acquiescent in particular on not pushing for a clear commitment from the Japanese leader to discontinue visits to Yasukuni. Nonetheless, the optics were positive and observers in media and academia are upbeat about the possibility of a thaw in the relationship, especially because PM Abe chose to come to Beijing before Washington, Wang said. Abe's visit to Beijing is "clearly a feather in the cap of the Chinese leadership," commented journalist Chen Jieren. The prominent treatment of the visit in the media indicates that the leadership wants the public to be aware of, and welcome, the visit. No Warming of Public Sentiment toward Japan -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite the positive atmosphere of the last few days, there is unlikely to be an appreciable warming in public sentiment toward Japan, said Victor Yuan (protect),president of the Horizon public opinion polling company in Beijing. Yuan conducts regular surveys of how various segments of society view Japan. Feelings about Japan are entrenched among most Chinese, Yuan observed. He reasoned that only if the visit had produced "major positive results," such as a new tack on the history issue or a promise from PM Abe not to visit Yasukuni, would there be a real swing in poll numbers. In measuring Chinese public opinion, Yuan has found that Japan is unique among nations in that average Chinese are firmly negative about Japan's people as well as its government. By contrast, Yuan related that while most Chinese tend to be critical of the U.S. Government and its policies, the American people overall are held in high esteem. No Protests -------------- ¶8. (C) Anti-Japan protest activity was not apparent in Beijing or elsewhere in connection with the visit. Chinese authorities visibly beefed up security at the Japanese Embassy and the Japanese Ambassador's Residence on October 8. Several police vans were parked in front of and adjacent to the Japanese Embassy and plainclothes police stood on all nearby street corners throughout the day. A similar setup was in place at the Japanese Ambassador's Residence. ¶9. (C) Chat rooms were chock full of thousands of postings throughout the weekend, although the tone was considerably more moderate than during other recent periods when China-Japan relations topped the headlines. While many chatters cautioned that China should "never forget history," netizens on the Strong Nation online forum, often a hotbed of nationalist rhetoric, tended to view PM Abe's trip pragmatically. "We do not have to be friends, but we are neighbors and distant relatives, so we need to work together," one typical entry read. Another Xinhuanet forum contributor gave the visit a more cynical cast, commenting that "China certainly is a big marketplace (for Japan),ha ha!" SEDNEY