MFA REACTION TO COUP IN THAILAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 020011

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2031
TAGS: PREL UNSC TH CH
SUBJECT: MFA REACTION TO COUP IN THAILAND

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Daniel Shields.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: China was "somewhat surprised" by the coup
against Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, but expects
the matter to be resolved peacefully, MFA Deputy Director Sun
Xiangyang told poloff September 20. Beijing expects the coup
to have little impact on Thai foreign policy, including
toward China, although the coup could create complications
for ASEAN in the short term. The MFA Spokesman has not yet
publicly commented on the coup but is expected to do so soon,
emphasizing China's policy of non-interference in the
internal affairs of other countries. End Summary.


2. (C) China was "somewhat surprised" by the military coup
that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin while the Thai leader was
in New York to attend the UNGA, MFA Asia Department Southeast
Asia Deputy Director Sun Xiangyang told poloff September 20.
China understands that the opposition has strong support from
the King, Sun said, and sees the military officers who
sparked the coup as clearly acting on the King's behalf. As
such, the political tensions that led to the coup were not
new, but China was surprised that the officers had acted now
to depose Thaksin while he was abroad.


3. (C) As Thailand's "friendly" neighbor, China hopes to see
a stable, peaceful and prosperous Thailand no matter how the
current political turmoil is resolved, Sun said. Given the
relative calm in the hours since the coup, China expects no
significant foreign policy change or impact on bilateral
relations, he said. Thaksin's wife and some ministers have
already fled to Singapore, while others have left Bangkok for
the far north of the country, he said. Should any of those
in the north seek to cross out of Thailand and transit to
China, that would present an "unwelcome" development, Sun
told poloff.

Short-Term Complications For ASEAN
--------------


4. (C) The coup could have some impact on ASEAN but it is too
early to tell about the extent or nature of the impact, Sun
said. It will certainly be a topic of discussion, and
possibly contention, within ASEAN given the flight of
Thaksin's wife and ministers to Singapore. If any money seen
as belonging to the Thai Government is shifted to Singapore
(where Thaksin reportedly has business dealings),it could
cause more controversy, Sun commented. China expects
Thailand will still send a high-ranking representative to the
Prime Minister-level 15-year commemoration of China-ASEAN
relations to be held in late October in China's Guangxi
Province, Sun said.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman's Statement Likely
-------------- -


5. (C) The MFA spokesman has not yet made any public
statement on the Thai situation, but Sun said a statement is
in the works and he expects it will be issued in the next day
or two. The statement, according to Sun, will emphasize
China's traditional policy of non-interference in the
internal affairs of other nations. Sun said China had taken
note of the NSC spokesman's comments that the Thai people
should resolve the matter peacefully and consistent with the
rule of law.
RANDT