MFA REACTION TO COUP IN THAILAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 020011 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2031 TAGS: PREL UNSC TH CH SUBJECT: MFA REACTION TO COUP IN THAILAND Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Daniel Shields. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: China was "somewhat surprised" by the coup against Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, but expects the matter to be resolved peacefully, MFA Deputy Director Sun Xiangyang told poloff September 20. Beijing expects the coup to have little impact on Thai foreign policy, including toward China, although the coup could create complications for ASEAN in the short term. The MFA Spokesman has not yet publicly commented on the coup but is expected to do so soon, emphasizing China's policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. End Summary. ¶2. (C) China was "somewhat surprised" by the military coup that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin while the Thai leader was in New York to attend the UNGA, MFA Asia Department Southeast Asia Deputy Director Sun Xiangyang told poloff September 20. China understands that the opposition has strong support from the King, Sun said, and sees the military officers who sparked the coup as clearly acting on the King's behalf. As such, the political tensions that led to the coup were not new, but China was surprised that the officers had acted now to depose Thaksin while he was abroad. ¶3. (C) As Thailand's "friendly" neighbor, China hopes to see a stable, peaceful and prosperous Thailand no matter how the current political turmoil is resolved, Sun said. Given the relative calm in the hours since the coup, China expects no significant foreign policy change or impact on bilateral relations, he said. Thaksin's wife and some ministers have already fled to Singapore, while others have left Bangkok for the far north of the country, he said. Should any of those in the north seek to cross out of Thailand and transit to China, that would present an "unwelcome" development, Sun told poloff. Short-Term Complications For ASEAN -------------- ¶4. (C) The coup could have some impact on ASEAN but it is too early to tell about the extent or nature of the impact, Sun said. It will certainly be a topic of discussion, and possibly contention, within ASEAN given the flight of Thaksin's wife and ministers to Singapore. If any money seen as belonging to the Thai Government is shifted to Singapore (where Thaksin reportedly has business dealings),it could cause more controversy, Sun commented. China expects Thailand will still send a high-ranking representative to the Prime Minister-level 15-year commemoration of China-ASEAN relations to be held in late October in China's Guangxi Province, Sun said. Foreign Ministry Spokesman's Statement Likely -------------- - ¶5. (C) The MFA spokesman has not yet made any public statement on the Thai situation, but Sun said a statement is in the works and he expects it will be issued in the next day or two. The statement, according to Sun, will emphasize China's traditional policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations. Sun said China had taken note of the NSC spokesman's comments that the Thai people should resolve the matter peacefully and consistent with the rule of law. RANDT