PRC/LEBANON: BEIJING SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016822 SIPDIS SIPDIS USUN FOR PHEE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS CH UN IS LE SUBJECT: PRC/LEBANON: BEIJING SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1701 CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL EXTERNAL UNIT CHIEF EDGARD D. KAGAN. REASONS 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: BEIJING BELIEVES UNSRC 1701 IS A "GOOD RESOLUTION" BUT IS SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR ITS SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION. MFA WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA DEPARTMENT LEVANT DIVISION DIRECTOR CHEN WEIQING SAID AUGUST 15 THAT EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1701 WILL DEPEND ON RESOLVING THE FOUR DIFFICULT ISSUES OF DISARMING HEZBOLLAH, RESOLVING THE SHEBA FARMS ISSUE, RELEASING ISRAELI AND HEZBOLLAH PRISONERS AS WELL AS DEPLOYING AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE-KEEPING FORCE. THESE QUESTIONS MUST BE SEEN WITHIN THE BROADER CONTEXT OF THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE AND THE LARGER ISRAEL-PALESTINE CONFLICT, ACCORDING TO CHEN. AN ARMED HEZBOLLAH WILL EXIST AS LONG AS THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT EXISTS, HE SAID, EXPRESSING HIS VIEW THAT HEZBOLLAH WILL NOT BE QUICKLY OR EASILY DISARMED. DURING THE CONFLICT, BEIJING URGED SYRIA AND IRAN TO USE THEIR INFLUENCE IN THE REGION IN A POSITIVE WAY. ASSISTANT FOREIGN MINISTER CUI TIANKAI WILL CERTAINLY RAISE LEBANON AND THE IMPORTANCE OF NOT DISRUPTING REGIONAL STABILITY DURING HIS CURRENT VISIT TO TEHRAN TO DISCUSS THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE. END SUMMARY. DISARMING HEZBOLLAH IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE -------------- ¶2. (C) POLOFFS MET AUGUST 15 WITH MFA WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA DEPARTMENT LEVANT DIVISION DIRECTOR CHEN WEIQING, A FORMER DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE IRAN DIVISION WHO CHANGED JOBS THREE WEEKS AGO. CHEN SAID BEIJING HAS NOTED THE CONSTRUCTIVE U.S. ROLE IN ACHIEVING CONSENSUS ON UNSCR 1701 AND COMMENTED THAT THE PRC UN MISSION REPORTED FAVORABLY ON COOPERATION WITH USUN IN DISCUSSIONS LEADING TO THE RESOLUTION'S ADOPTION. HIGHLIGHTING CHINA'S SUPPORT FOR THE QUICK END TO FIGHTING IN LEBANON, CHEN SAID THAT IMPLEMENTATION WILL BE HAMPERED BY SEVERAL COMPLICATED AND INTERRELATED PROBLEMS. DISARMING HEZBOLLAH, RESOLVING THE SHEBBA FARMS ISSUE, RELEASING THE TWO ISRAELI SOLDIERS IN HEZBOLLAH CUSTODY AS WELL AS LEBANESE PRISONERS CAPTURED BY ISRAEL AND DEPLOYING AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE-KEEPING FORCE ARE MAJOR QUESTIONS THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED FOR EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF 1701, ACCORDING TO CHEN. ¶3. (C) AFTER READING RECENT REPORTS FROM THE PRC EMBASSY IN BEIRUT STATING SUPPORT FOR HEZBOLLAH COMES NOT ONLY FROM RELIGIOUS EXTREMISTS BUT FROM BOTH LEFTIST AND RIGHTIST INTELLECTUALS, CHEN SAID HE IS MORE CONVINCED THAT DISARMING HEZBOLLAH WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. IN HIS OPINION, AN ARMED HEZBOLLAH WILL EXIST AS LONG AS THE LARGER ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT CONTINUES. EVEN IF HEZBOLLAH IS SIGNIFICANTLY DISARMED, CHEN PREDICTED THAT SOME OTHER ARMED FACTION WILL ARISE TO FILL THE VACUUM, THOUGH HE STRESSED THAT THIS IS HIS PERSONAL VIEW AND NOT AN OFFICIAL POSITION. ¶4. (C) THE BEST WAY FORWARD IS TO CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE HEZBOLLAH TO DEVELOP AS A POLITICAL PARTY BY GIVING IT THE "SPACE TO DEVELOP," ARGUED CHEN. POLOFF POINTED OUT THAT HEZBOLLAH REFUSED TO DISARM FOR SIX YEARS SINCE ISRAEL'S 2000 WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON AND CHOSE TO PROVOKE THE CURRENT CRISIS. THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HEZBOLLAH TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A POLITICAL PARTY, BUT RATHER A LACK OF DESIRE, SAID POLOFF. IRAN, SYRIA AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT -------------- ¶5. (C) THE LARGER ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE CURRENT CONFLICT IN LEBANON ARE ALL RELATED TO ISRAELS CONFLICTS WITH PALESTINE, SYRIA AND LEBANON AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS MUST BE EXAMINED IN THIS BROADER CONTEXT, SAID CHEN. ANOTHER EXTERNAL SOURCE OF TENSION IN LEBANON IS THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE. CHEN SAID INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE IS NECESSARY TO BRING IRAN BACK TO THE FOLD, AND, NOTING THAT WHEN CORNERED EVEN A RABBIT WILL BITE, HE SAID THE KEY IS TO OFFER IRAN A VIABLE "WAY OUT." WHEN POLOFF POINTED OUT THAT IRAN HAD ALREADY BEEN GIVEN SEVERAL OPTIONS FOR "WAYS OUT" BUT HAD EXPRESSED NO INTEREST IN TAKING ANY OF THEM, CHEN ARGUED THAT IRAN HAS A SPECIAL BACKGROUND AND HISTORICAL BURDENS. HE LIKENED DEALING WITH IRAN TO DEALING WITH A PERSON WITH A DELICATE EGO AND TOO MUCH PRIDE, AND URGED THE U.S. TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE "WAYS AND MEANS" OF DEALING WITH IRAN SO AS NOT TO ENFLAME THAT PRIDE. ¶6. (C) IRAN, LIKE NORTH KOREA, ATTACHES IMPORTANCE TO DIRECT DIALOGUE WITH THE U.S. AND THIS WOULD BE THE MOST DIRECT WAY TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES, SAID CHEN. HE SAID THAT INCLUDING THE EU AND RUSSIA IN THE DISCUSSION CAN SOMETIMES CLOUD THE ISSUES AND CREATE CONFUSION IN IRAN ABOUT THE "TRUE" U.S. POSITION. DISAGREEING, POLOFF STATED THAT RECENT FACTS SHOW IRAN IS NOT INTERESTED IN HONEST DIALOGUE WITH THE U.S. AND IRAN HAS NOT BEEN AT ALL RECEPTIVE TO RECENT, SIGNIFICANT STEPS BY THE U.S. TO FIND A WAY FORWARD. SHEBBA FARMS -------------- ¶7. (C) CHEN SAID CHINA'S OFFICIAL POLICY ON THE SHEBBA FARMS ISSUE IS THAT THE CONCERNED PARTIES SHOULD CONSULT ABOUT THE ISSUE TO REACH A BALANCED RESULT. POLOFF NOTED THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE SHIFT FROM 2000, WHEN CHINA SUPPORTED THE UN'S ENDORSEMENT OF ISRAEL'S PULL-OUT FROM SOUTHERN LEBANON. WHEN ASKED WHY BEIJING NOW SEES THE ISSUE AS OPEN FOR DISCUSSION AND WHETHER THE PRC IS CONCERNED ABOUT SETTING PRECEDENTS FOR ITS OWN DISPUTED BOUNDARIES, CHEN COMMENTED THAT HE IS NEW TO THE JOB AND REPEATED THAT THE ISSUE IS ONE TO BE RESOLVED BY THE INTERESTED PARTIES. CHINA TALKS TO SYRIA AND IRAN -------------- ¶8. (C) DURING THE CONFLICT, BEIJING HAD FRANK EXCHANGES WITH SYRIA AND ALSO MET SEVERAL TIMES WITH IRAN, ACCORDING TO CHEN. CHINA URGED SYRIA TO USE ITS INFLUENCE IN THE REGION IN A POSITIVE WAY, WARNING AGAINST STEPS THAT MIGHT EXPAND THE CONFLICT. BEIJING CONVEYED SIMILAR MESSAGES TO TEHRAN, SAID CHEN, WHO COMMENTED THAT THE IRANIANS "HAD THEIR OWN VIEWS" ON THE ISSUE. ASSISTANT FOREIGN MINISTER CUI TIANKAI IS CURRENTLY IN TEHRAN TO DISCUSS THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE AND WILL CERTAINLY DISCUSS LEBANON DURING HIS VISIT. UNIFIL -------------- ¶9. (C) BEIJING HAS NOT YET DECIDED WHETHER IT WOULD PARTICIPATE IN AN EXPANDED UNIFIL PEACE-KEEPING OPERATION, AND IN FACT, HAS NOT DECIDED WHETHER TO MAINTAIN THE CHINESE PEACE-KEEPERS CURRENTLY IN LEBANON. POLOFF STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF AN EXPANDED AND CREDIBLE UNIFIL TO SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1701. RANDT