BEIJING DOES NOT EXPECT SERIOUS ANTI-JAPAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 016502 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/J AND DS/IP/EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2031 TAGS: PREL ASEC JA CH SUBJECT: BEIJING DOES NOT EXPECT SERIOUS ANTI-JAPAN PROTESTS IF KOIZUMI VISITS YASUKUNI SHRINE REF: OSC CPP2006081106407 CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR DANIEL SHIELDS. REASONS 1. 4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: NEITHER JAPANESE DIPLOMATS NOR BEIJING-BASED JAPAN EXPERTS ANTICIPATE LARGE-SCALE ANTI-JAPANESE PROTESTS SUCH AS THOSE THAT OCCURRED IN APRIL 2005 SHOULD JAPANESE PM KOIZUMI VISIT YASUKUNI SHRINE ON OR AROUND AUGUST 15. THE JAPANESE EMBASSY HERE TWEAKED ITS EMERGENCY PLAN IN CASE OF ANTI-JAPANESE RIOTING, BUT OFFICIALS SAID LARGE-SCALE PROTESTS ARE UNLIKELY. CHINESE COMMENTATORS AND THE PUBLIC WILL CRITICIZE A KOIZUMI VISIT, BUT THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT WANT ANTI-JAPANESE OPINION TO GET "OUT OF HAND." A FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIAL DOWNPLAYED A PRESS REPORT CLAIMING CHINA HAD URGED KOIZUMI NOT TO VISIT THE SHRINE AND SCHOLARS SAID CHINA'S LOW-KEY REACTION TO NEWS REPORTS THAT CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY SHINZO ABE VISITED YASUKUNI SHRINE IN APRIL ARE SIGNS THAT BEIJING IS TAKING A MORE ACCOMMODATING ATTITUDE TOWARD JAPAN AND, ESPECIALLY, ITS LIKELY NEXT PRIME MINISTER. END SUMMARY. MAJOR ANTI-JAPANESE PROTESTS UNLIKELY -------------- ¶2. (C) LARGE-SCALE ANTI-JAPANESE PROTESTS, SUCH AS THE APRIL 2005 ONES THAT DREW TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PROTESTERS, ARE UNLIKELY SHOULD PM KOIZUMI VISIT THE YASUKUNI SHRINE AUGUST 15, ACCORDING TO OUR CHINESE AND JAPANESE EMBASSY CONTACTS. (NOTE: THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT DEMONSTRATIONS FOLLOWING KOIZUMIS LAST VISIT TO YASUKUNI IN OCTOBER 2005. END NOTE.) THE JAPANESE EMBASSY IN BEIJING HAS MADE EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS FOR THE UNLIKELY POSSIBILITY OF LARGE-SCALE PROTESTS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR KAZUHIRO SUZUKI TOLD US, BUT BELIEVES IT UNLIKELY THAT ANY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR, SUCH AS RESULTED TO JAPANESE DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES AND BUSINESSES DURING THE APRIL 2005 PROTESTS IN BEIJING, SHANGHAI AND ELSEWHERE IN CHINA. BEIJING PUBLIC SECURITY CONTACTS TOLD RSO THAT THEY EXPECT ALL WILL BE QUIET. ACTIVIST ATTORNEY ZHANG XINGSHUI, A DEFENDER OF SOME DETAINED IN CONNECTION WITH THE APRIL 2005 MARCHES IN BEIJING, SAID HE WAS NOT AWARE OF ANY PLANNED ANTI-JAPAN DEMONSTRATIONS, WHILE MFA JAPAN DIVISION DEPUTY DIRECTOR LU GUIJUN TOLD POLOFF LARGE-SCALE PROTESTS WOULD BE "IMPOSSIBLE." CHINA TAKING A MORE ACCOMMODATING STANCE? -------------- ¶3. (C) LU DOWNPLAYED AN AUGUST 11 HONG KONG-BASED REPORT (REFTEL) ASSERTING THAT THE FOREIGN MINISTRY URGED KOIZUMI TO TAKE A "RESPONSIBLE ATTITUDE TOWARD HISTORY" AND NOT VISIT THE SHRINE ON AUGUST 15. LU SAID THE COMMENT WAS A WRITTEN RESPONSE TO A REPORTER'S QUESTION, BUT WAS NOT MEANT AS A "FOREIGN MINISTRY STATEMENT." THE MFA WAS INTENTIONALLY REFRAINING FROM ISSUING A STATEMENT TO "WAIT AND SEE" WHAT KOIZUMI DOES ON AUGUST 15, HE SAID. NONETHELESS, AN AUGUST 11 PEOPLE'S DAILY EDITORIAL MINCED NO WORDS IN URGING KOIZUMI NOT TO VISIT YASUKUNI SHRINE. ¶4. (C) CHINA HAS TAKEN A MORE ACCOMMODATING STANCE TOWARD JAPAN RECENTLY AND SPECIFICALLY TOWARD THE ISSUE OF YASUKUNI VISITS, SUZUKI SAID, OFFERING HIS PERSONAL VIEW THAT CHINA IS SEEKING A "WAY OUT" OF THE CONFLICT OVER PM KOIZUMI'S VISITS TO THE SHRINE. CHINA REMAINED SILENT OVER NEWS REPORTS THAT CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY AND LIKELY FUTURE PM SHINZO ABE MADE A PRIVATE VISIT TO THE SHRINE IN APRIL, CASS SCHOLAR JIN XIDE NOTED. JAPAN SEES CHINAS SILENCE AS A POSITIVE SIGN, SUZUKI SAID, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT QUICKLY CRITICIZED ABE'S REPORTED APRIL VISIT. SCHOLARS: KOIZUMI HEADING OUT, CHINAS EYES ON ABE -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) SCHOLAR HU JIPING SAID THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT'S SILENCE ABOUT ABE'S VISIT IS A TACTICAL MOVE AIMED AT KEEPING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GOOD RELATIONS WITH JAPAN'S LIKELY NEXT PRIME MINISTER BUT DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CHANGE IN ATTITUDE TOWARD YASUKUNI SHRINE OR JAPAN'S WORLD WAR II HISTORY. THE CHINESE PUBLIC AND MEDIA WILL REACT STRONGLY AND NEGATIVELY TO A SHRINE VISIT BY PM KOIZUMI, BUT THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT REACTION WILL BE LESS EXTREME THAN IN THE PAST BECAUSE BEIJING KNOWS KOIZUMI IS STEPPING DOWN, SAID HU, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE CHINA INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JAPAN DIVISION. CHNA CANNOT "STEP BACK" BUT WANTS TO FIND A "WA AROUND" CONFLICT SO THAT IT HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF COOPERATION WITH JAPAN AND ABE IN THE FUTURE, HE SAID. NONETHELESS, THE "STRONG RESENTMENT IN THE HEARTS OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE" GENERATED BY KOIZUMI'S VISITS TO THE SHRINE WILL NOT IMMEDIATELY BE WASHED AWAY EVEN WHEN HE STEPS DOWN AS PM, ACCORDING TO HU, WHO PREDICTED CHINA-JAPANESE CONFLICTS OVER HISTORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. RANDT