THE GAMBIA: OPPOSITION, OBSERVER REACTIONS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000594 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KMCA GA SUBJECT: THE GAMBIA: OPPOSITION, OBSERVER REACTIONS TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REF: A. BANJUL 589 ¶B. BANJUL 588 BANJUL 00000594 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH STAFFORD, REASON 1.4 (B AND D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Presidential candidate Ousainou Darboe challenged the results of the September 22 presidential election as a sham, but nonetheless vowed to participate in the upcoming National Assembly elections rather than boycott them, as in 2002. Darboe acknowledged better behavior by the ruling APRC party in this latest poll as compared to the previous contest in 2001, when he recounted, APRC supporters resorted to violent provocations against the opposition. The election observer groups, continuing their post-election discussions, reached a consensus that President Jammeh's re-election September 22 was credible, but that the electoral process was marred by a substantially skewed playing field -- which, in our view, resulted in a margin of victory for Jammeh considerably greater than a fairer contest would have produced. END SUMMARY. OPPOSITION CANDIDATE'S NEGATIVE ASSESSMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador and Poloff met September 26 with the leading opposition candidate in the September 22 Presidential election, Ousainou Darboe of United Democratic Party (UDP), in alliance with two smaller parties. Darboe, who finished second in the polling with 27 percent of the vote to President Yahya Jammeh's 67 percent (ref a),decried the results of the contest. Darboe asserted that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) had connived with Jammeh's ruling APRC party to ensure his victory, citing the registration of under-age and non-Gambian voters and the voting of soldiers at polling sites where they were not registered as cases in point. Portraying the electoral playing field as considerably skewed in Jammeh's view, Darboe went on to speak of, inter alia, pressure on local officials to "deliver" area residents for Jammeh on polling day, the openly partisan (pro-APRC) stance of military and security officials during the campaigning, and the greater media coverage accorded Jammeh as compared to the two opposition candidates. He attributed the reduced voter turnout nationwide -- 59 percent as compared to 87 percent in the previous 2001 contest -- to what he portrayed as grass-roots level intimidation by APRC elements. (COMMENT: While we do not rule out such intimidation as a factor, our contacts say another likely factor was the heavy rains that occurred in much of The Gambia during the afternoon of the vote. We are also told that some refrained from voting in the belief that Jammeh's re-election was a foregone conclusion. END COMMENT) ¶3. (C) Summing up, Darboe said that he refused to accept Jammeh's victory and that the UDP might go to court to challenge the election result, maintaining that in a genuinely free and fair election, he (Darboe),not Jammeh, would have won. (COMMENT: We note that the other opposition candidate, Halifa Sallah of the National Alliance for Democracy and Development (NADD),who finished third with 6 percent of the vote, has announced his acceptance of the election outcome, despite what he termed "anomalies" in the voting process. END COMMENT) On a more positive note, Darboe repeatedly asserted that he was not giving up on the political process and that the UDP would participate in the National Assembly elections scheduled for January 2007 as well as the municipal elections set for the spring. (COMMENT: The UDP boycotted the last National Assembly elections, held in 2002 because of objections to the conduct of the 2001 Presidential election. END COMMENT) 4.(C) Asked to compare the 2006 presidential election with its predecessor in 2001, Darboe did acknowledge improvement in the APRC's behavior in the latest electioneering. He stated that in 2001 APRC militants had resorted to violent provocations against the opposition supporters, whereas they had refrained from such conduct in the latest contest. Asked why he had conceded victory to Jammeh in 2001 but was unwilling to do so this time, Darboe responded that he had been compelled to concede in the previous election, not out of any conviction that Jammeh was the genuine victor, but simply to appease the APRC and thereby forestall further violence against UDP supporters. CONSENSUS AMONG OBSERVERS -------------- BANJUL 00000594 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, in the election's aftermath, international and domestic observer groups have continued their discussions, with the IEC, Commonwealth reps, and UN reps hosting meetings, attended by Ambassador, DCM, and Poloff. The consensus emerging in these discussions is that Jammeh's re-election was a credible result, but that the electoral process was marred by various irregularities that need to be addressed for the upcoming National Assembly contest. On the positive side of the ledger, observers agreed that, for the most part, polling officials performed competently, that the secrecy of the ballot was assured, and that security officials refrained from interfering in the voting process. ¶6. (C) The senior Commonwealth rep, former Tanzanian Prime Minister and OAU Secretary General Salim Ahmed Salim, reiterated his judgment that Jammeh's triumph "reflected the people's will," but, in his preliminary written report, referred to "abuse of incumbency" -- i.e., the considerable skewing of the electoral playing field (refs a and b). Like opposition candidate Darboe, Salim expressed particular concern over the public pro-APRC stance of military and security forces, not on election day itself, but during the campaigning; he cited, as an example, the presence of a "Vote for Jammeh" poster at a military barracks that he (Salim) had visited. Observers generally concurred in Embassy reps' assertion of under-age voters' presence at various sites observed. A visiting UN electoral expert stressed the need for greater autonomy by the IEC, and cited instances of "neutral" local officials campaigning on Jammeh's behalf. As for the various Gambian observer groups, they invariably mentioned the APRC's much greater resources -- augmented by the state -- as compared to the opposition, and made pleas to the donor community for greater assistance to the IEC; they also called on the GOTG to provide funds to all parties. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) We find no basis for challenging the observer community's consensus that Jammeh's re-election was a credible outcome of the September 22 polling, but believe that the overall electoral process was marred by a substantially skewed playing field -- that doubtless resulted in a greater victory margin for Jammeh than a fairer contest would have produced. We discount Darboe's claim that he would have triumphed in a genuinely free and fair election; by all accounts, according to, inter alia, Gambian sources opposed to Jammeh, the division in opposition ranks resulting from Darboe's departure from NADD some months ago ensured the incumbent president's victory. Darboe's assurances that the UDP will participate in the National Assembly elections are good news, as there had been speculation that he might be tempted to boycott these elections as in 2001 in protest over the flawed Presidential electoral process. END COMMENT. STAFFORD