POLITICAL MANEUVERING IN NORTHEAST THAILAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 007549 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS NSC FOR MORROW PACOM FOR FPA HUSO E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR TH SUBJECT: POLITICAL MANEUVERING IN NORTHEAST THAILAND REF: A. BANGKOK 07286 (CHASING "UNDERCURRENTS" IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND) ¶B. BANGKOK 7285 (POLITICAL GOSSIP) ¶C. BANGKOK 6835 (SOMKID'S OPTIONS) Classified By: CDA Alex A. Arvizu. Reason 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. In a recent trip to the rural northeast, our contacts downplayed and in most cases outright denied the existence of political "undercurrents" (ref A),but pointed to energetic efforts by former Thai Rak Thai (TRT) members of parliament to reorganize and choose new party affiliations ahead of a planned election next year. Almost all of our contacts agreed that the "old school" politics of the northeast favors former TRT politicians and that the Democrat Party in particular stands little chance of building support in the region. Former TRT leader Somsak Thepsutin appears to be aggressively courting politicians from throughout the country, but especially in the vote-rich northeast--possibly setting up Somsak to play kingmaker in the next government. Somsak has reportedly approached former Deputy PM and TRT member Somkid Jatusripitak to serve as his yet-to-be-formed party's candidate for PM, and will try to convince voters that Thaksin's populist policies were actually Somkid's idea. End Summary. WELCOME TO THE HEARTLAND -------------- ¶2. (U) Often referred to as Thailand's "middle America" or heartland, the 19 provinces of the northeast (aka Isaan) are home to nearly a third of the overall population. While some individual provincial centers such as Khon Kaen and the border town of Nong Khai are relatively well-developed, much of Isaan remains dependent on agriculture and devoid of outside investment or industry, driving many residents young and old to Bangkok and other urban centers to look for work. ¶3. (C) Isaan is also Thaksin country. Since 2001, Isaan voters have overwhelmingly supported the ousted-PM's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party at levels higher than voters in other regions; in the February 2005 vote, 77 percent of northeast voters selected TRT; in the invalidated April 2006 contest, all 136 parliamentary seats in Isaan went to TRT. Indeed, this strong pro-Thaksin sentiment is one of the justifications used by the post-coup government for the continued imposition of martial law in some of these provinces. Ref A detailed poloff's late November/early December trip to the Isaan provinces of Sisaket, Surin and Buriram--among the poorest in the country--to search for political "undercurrents"--i.e. alleged efforts by supporters of ousted PM Thaksin to organize popular protests in a deliberate attempt to undermine the post-coup government in Bangkok. Almost all of our contacts downplayed and in most cases denied outright the existence of any political undercurrents in the area--claiming that most citizens focused on basic economic needs rather than national politics. ¶4. (C) While undercurrents may be an overhyped anxiety in Bangkok, TRT and Thaksin unquestionably remain popular in the countryside. According to Amnart Somsri, Chairman of the Law Society of Thailand's Sisaket branch, if Thaksin were allowed to run again, he would win. Manit Sangphum, a former TRT MP in Surin, said that people remain "under the spell" of Thaksin. As expected, most of our contacts pointed to TRT's increased rice subsidies, village loan projects, expanded health care efforts, and the 2003 "war on drugs" as policies that strongly resonated with local voters. Some of the people we spoke with also pointed to Thaksin's image as a strong leader. As one Ministry of Interior official explained, the rural folk of Isaan are accustomed to receiving their orders from the higher authority (whether King or PM) in Bangkok. "They have low expectations for government, but desire a strong hand to guide them." (Comment: It's interesting that this particular interlocutor conflated the King and Thaksin in describing "the higher authority." End Comment.) BANGKOK 00007549 002 OF 003 OLD SCHOOL POLITICS STILL AT PLAY -------------- ¶5. (C) As important as Thaksin's populist development policies were to TRT's success in Isaan, our interlocutors also stressed TRT's careful cultivation of strong local candidates and lower-level political leaders as important factors in electoral success. Amnart, who served on his local election commission in Sisaket, pointed out that personalities transcend party affiliation in most parts of Isaan. Amnart said that both MPs elected from his district in 1997 switched parties to join TRT in 2001, and continued to win handily. One of the two had actually served in several different parties prior to that, for a total of 26 years in his seat. Sophon Phetsawang, a former Deputy House Speaker and Buriram MP involved in local politics for decades, brushed aside the importance of party affiliation. In a reference to political parties' penchant for different colored jackets during campaign season, Sophon said, "If I wear yellow, I'm still Sophon, if I wear red I'm still Sophon. I go to every funeral, wedding, celebration, festival, religious ceremony and party in this area. The people here know me." ¶6. (C) TRT's efforts to woo leaders at the village, sub-district and district level were just as important. While other parties had won over these key officials in prior elections, TRT was more systematic and effective at recruiting them to serve as vote canvassers, according to Dr. Chaiya Chotikawanit, the Vice Rector of Rajabhat Buriram University. Dr. Chaiya explained that, at its heart, Isaan political culture is very paternalistic. Local voters look up to their locally elected village, sub-district and district leaders for assistance and patronage. As part of this deal, citizens vote for those candidates who are endorsed by their local leaders. When asked if downright vote-buying played a role in this success, Dr. Chaiya admitted that money definitely changes hands during local elections, but that many rural voters would vote as told by their local leaders even without any cash inducement. "The local leaders will know who they voted for." Local leaders sometimes eschew cash payments for gifts of food or beverages or even large celebrations. Amnart echoed this statement. Poolsombat Namlar, Director of the Isaan Community NGO, agreed that the TRT machine was particularly impressive in Isaan, saying "only TRT could get a "no-name" candidate elected here." WHERE TO WITHOUT THAKSIN? -------------- ¶7. (C) Most of our contacts agreed that many former TRT MPs in Isaan could still capitalize on their local networks to win in the next election, even as Thaksin remains abroad and the political future of his party remains in doubt. (Note: The Constitutional Court is currently considering a case that could result in the party's dissolution. End Note.) Wiwatchai Hotaraweisaya, a former TRT MP in Sisaket--who has not yet resigned from TRT--estimates that about 80 percent of TRT MPs would still win, even if they were forced to choose a new party. Prayong Siriprasertsilp, Chief of the Provincial Administration Office in Surin, agreed, saying that, even without Thaksin, his former comrades would still dominate the next election. "The locally powerful and famous people here will still win...they have a strong support system." MANEUVERING FULL SPEED AHEAD -------------- ¶8. (C) In fact, it appears that a critical mass of former TRT MPs are already planning for life without Thaksin. According to former MPs Manit and Sophon, the political jockeying to decide the next election is well underway. Former TRT faction leader Somsak Thepsuthin has been aggressively courting other faction leaders for several weeks and may be able to control 120-160 strong candidates--and likely seats--in the next vote. According to Manit, Somsak has recruited former TRT members from the North, Isaan, and BANGKOK 00007549 003 OF 003 central regions, including former party leaders like Suranand Vejjajiva, Suchart Tanchoroen, Varathep Rattanakorn, Suwat Liptapanlop, Sora-at Klinprathum, and Pinij Charusombat, giving Somsak a dominant bloc of likely MPs. "The door (to other parties) is closed in Isaan," says Manit. Somsak has also reportedly approached former TRT leader and Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak to serve as the titular head--and PM candidate--for this yet-to-be-named party (ref B). Manit claims to be a close contact of Somsak's and says that the party's message will underscore that TRT's populist policies were actually designed by Somkid. "I have confidence in Somkid." That said, Manit explained that Somsak wants Somkid to keep a low profile for a while, so as not to invite political attacks "too early" in the eventual campaign. (Somkid appeared to take this approach in his ref C meeting with the Ambassador in November.) ¶9. (C) Sophon--who had just returned from a meeting in Bangkok with Somsak--explained that he had resigned from TRT, but not yet decided whether to join Somsak and Somkid. Sophon agreed with Manit's comments that Somkid needs to stay behind the scenes for a bit and that the new party should focus on reinvigorating Thaksin's populist programs. According to Sophon, Somsak's efforts to recruit new party members have been very effective--he confirmed Manit's list of likely defectors. Sophon says that many former TRT members are still waiting to see what happens to the party before making any final decisions. Just as important, Sophon cautioned against forgetting the ousted Prime Minister. "If Thaksin returns, he will be head of the party, it will be just like before." DEMOCRATS "CAN'T COMPETE" -------------- ¶10. (C) Our contacts uniformly scoffed at Democrat Party (DP) efforts to win votes in Isaan--almost all using the phrase "they cannot compete." According to Sophon, the DP's weakness in Isaan is rooted in popular perceptions (fostered in previous campaigns in the 1990s by former PM Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's New Aspiration Party) that the Democrats are elitist and look down at people from Isaan. "They are from the South and are not attuned to Isaan," said Sophon. Manit and Dr. Chaiya both echoed this comment, citing weak efforts by DP leaders to find and recruit strong, local candidates. Sophon even suggested that cultural traits hamper the DP message in Isaan. "The Democrats like debate and forceful speech, while Isaan people prefer smooth, beautiful words and a spirit of cooperation." COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) In political terms, there are several lifetimes left before the next election, and while Somsak's recruitment efforts are impressive--and generating much discussion and speculation in Bangkok now, as well--his position as kingmaker is far from assured. Barely mentioned in our conversations with Manit and Sophon were the competing machinations of Chart Thai leader (and former PM) Banharn Silapa-archa. The strength of Chart Thai and Banharn is in the semi-urban central Thailand region surrounding Bangkok, but their old-style political machine is resilient and would probably do well in a relative political vacuum, such as exists at present. Indeed, despite all of the talk in Bangkok of the new "post-coup" or "post-Thaksin" era, it appears that the traditional politics of the Thai countryside remains very much in force. ARVIZU