ASSEMBLY NARROWS FIELD OF POSSIBLE CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007490

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY NARROWS FIELD OF POSSIBLE CONSTITUTION
DRAFTERS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Alex A. Arvizu, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The National People's Assembly (NPA) on December 18
elected 200 of its 1,982 members as short-listed candidates
for the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA). Following its
ceremonial opening on December 17, the NPA -- whose sole
purpose is to provide candidates for the CDA -- began its
first working session with the election, well in advance of
the seven-day deadline for it to conclude its work. The
Council for National Security (CNS) will screen the 200 and
select 100 for the CDA. The speed with which the NPA carried
out its election is encouraging but came at a price: there
has been much criticism of the process, with so far
unresolved allegations of vote-buying and interference. End
Summary.

GETTING RIGHT DOWN TO BUSINESS
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2. (U) On December 17, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn presided
over the ceremonial opening of the National People's
Assembly. Per the interim constitution issued by the council
of military officers who carried out the September 19 coup
d'etat, the NPA was to consist of no more than 2,000 members,
of whom 200 were to be selected as potential members of the
Constitution Drafting Assembly. National Legislative
Assembly (NLA) President Meechai Ruchupan (not a member of
the NPA) acted as NPA President, in accordance with
provisions of the interim constitution, which also entitled
Meechai to prescribe the rules and procedures for the
election.


3. (U) Convening on December 18, the NPA, without debate over
modalities, elected the 200 potential CDA members. In
accordance with constitutional provisions, NPA members were
entitled to vote for three of their colleagues, and those who
received the most votes were short-listed, with ties resolved
by the drawing of lots. The top candidate got 55 votes. At
the bottom end, 36 people tied with seven votes each; 16 of
those were chosen by lot to make up the 200. Although the
NPA consisted of representatives of various sectors,
including political parties, state officials, constitutional
experts, academics, and others, there was no overt attempt to
ensure a particular distribution of skill sets among the CDA
hopefuls, and NPA members had no official medium to campaign
for membership in the CDA. Press reports cited allegations
that military officials lobbied for certain candidates, and
that others engaged in vote-buying. Some NPA members
criticized the voting process as sloppy, with few controls to
ensure the integrity of the ballots.


4. (C) The 200 winners include a diverse range of figures,
such as a BMW executive and Angkana Neelaphaijit, the wife of
missing (and presumed dead) Muslim lawyer Somchai
Neelaphaijit. Several of the top vote winners are unlikely
choices and tend to lend credence to the allegations of vote
rigging. For example, the number three candidate (50 votes)
runs a local construction business in the Northeast and has
only a high school education. One NPA member commented that
people may have bought a place on the CDA to increase their
chances of getting a royal decoration. There is so far no
indication of any attempt to investigate these allegations.


5. (U) The press has not yet identified any of the 200 as
experts in constitutional law. Some prominent NPA members
with legal backgrounds failed to make the cut, including two
former presidents of the Constitutional Court. A list of the
200 names indicates that 11 are active duty or retired
military or police officers, while 22 are professors or
assistant professors.

NEXT STEPS
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6. (U) The Council for National Security will vet the 200
nominees and select 100 for appointment to the CDA. The CNS
has full discretion in making its selection. The interim
constitution provides no deadline for the CNS to narrow the
list; we estimate the CNS will have the 100 names ready for
royal appointment in January. The CDA must produce a
constitution within 180 days of its first meeting; after the

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CDA completes work on the constitution, a referendum will
take place 15-30 days later. Thus, a mid-January
inauguration of the CDA would imply a mid-August
constitutional referendum, at the latest.

COMMENT
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7. (C) The interim constitution required the NPA to select
its 200 CDA candidates within seven days of its first
meeting; the NPA completed the task in a single day. The
speed with which it acted was encouraging but came at a
price: NPA members complained publicly that they had no
chance to campaign or shape the election modalities.
Allegations of official interference and vote-buying are, so
far, unresolved. Those concerned by these questions may
decide it is not worth fighting over. The CNS will now
choose 100 for the Constitution Drafting Assembly, rendering
the other 100 largely irrelevant. Still, this is not an
auspicious beginning.
ARVIZU