THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE - DECEMBER 14, 2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 007413

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE - DECEMBER 14, 2006


Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, Reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (U) SUMMARY. The National People's Assembly will convene
on December 18, beginning what some complain to be a long and
complicated process to select the final 35 drafters of the
new Constitution. Some Thai academics and activists have
also expressed concern about the influence the Council for
National Security (CNS) exerts over the process. Separately,
a highly-anticipated demonstration against the coup on
December 10 failed to draw out the large crowd that many,
including the CNS, predicted. End summary.


NATIONAL PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY FORMED
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2. (SBU) The King has officially appointed 1,982 persons as
members of the National People's Assembly (NPA). Our sources
tell us the NPA will hold its opening ceremony on Sunday,
December 17, with Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn presiding. The
NPA should then convene on December 18 in order to begin
selecting 200 prospective members of the Constitution
Drafting Assembly (CDA). According to the interim
constitution, the 200 figures must be selected within one
week of the first NPA meeting. Subsequently, the Council for
National Security (CNS) will select 100 of the 200 for
membership in the CDA. There is no deadline in the interim
constitution for the CNS's selection, but we expect it to
take place relatively quickly. The CDA will have 180 days to
complete the draft constitution, starting from the date of
its first meeting.


3. (C) Many of our contacts have expressed disdain for the
NPA's elaborate winnowing ritual, which does not disguise the
enormous influence the CNS will exert over the composition of
the CDA (as well as the 35-member Constitution Drafting
Committee, which will do most of the real work). Many
politicians assert that prominent jurist Meechai Ruchupan,
who was close to the coup leaders and became President of the
National Legislative Assembly, has already begun sketching
out key elements of the draft constitution. Nevertheless, we
doubt that the CNS will be able to control public discourse
once the CDA begins its work; activists and some political
party officials have begun preparing proposals for the next
charter, and we expect active participation by civil society.


4. (C) On December 13, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont,
publicly addressed rumors that the current leadership of
Thailand would like for the next constitution to allow for
persons other than members of parliament to become Prime
Minister. Surayud said this issue should be settled after
public discussion. Multiple contacts from political parties
have told us with confidence that a system that permits a
non-member of parliament to become Prime Minister would
encounter strong opposition from civil society.


DEMONSTRATION TAKES PLACE IN BANGKOK
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5. (SBU) On December 10, to mark Thailand's Constitution Day,
various groups converged on Bangkok's Royal Grounds (Sanam
Luang) for a peaceful pro-democracy rally. According to
press reports, approximately 1,000 people participated,
although some pre-rally projections estimated tens of
thousands might attend. Prior to the event, top military
officers warned publicly that those joining in the
demonstration would be disregarding the King's call for
national unity. The press also reported efforts by security
and government officials to dissuade people outside of
Bangkok from coming to the event. Thaksin associates, such
as former cabinet member Newin Chidchob, were alleged to have
provided backing for the event. Organizers included three
activist groups established in late 2006 to protest against
the September 19 coup d'etat. Security forces -- both police
and military -- had a heavy presence at the event, according
to the media.
HANSEN