THAILAND: MOVING FORWARD WITH THE COPE TIGER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 007386

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR U/S BURNS AND A/S HILL; OSD FOR USDP
EDELMAN; NSC FOR DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR CROUCH;
PACOM FOR ADM FALLON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MASS TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: MOVING FORWARD WITH THE COPE TIGER
EXERCISE

REF: BANGKOK 7182

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. (C) I was surprised to learn today that Vice-Chairman
Giambastiani has canceled the planned U.S. participation in
Exercise COPE TIGER's Final Coordination Conference and
Command Post Exercise and ordered the U.S. team now in
Singapore to return to its home station. Since this
conference is a necessary precondition to the actual air
exercise in Thailand, this decision will result in the de
facto cancellation of U.S. participation in COPE TIGER. This
will be interpreted as imposing additional coup-related
sanctions on Thailand. The timing is also awkward, coming
shortly after the APEC Leaders Meeting in Hanoi last month
where the President told Thai PM Surayud we encouraged the
plan to return Thailand to democracy by the end of next year.
It is also worth noting that former President Bush and Mrs.
Barbara Bush just visited Thailand as special Presidential
envoys to represent the United States at ceremonies
commemorating the King's 60th anniversary on the Thai throne.
These events have generated considerable good will for the
United States, and in so doing enhance our credibility with
Thais across the board, including our credibility as the
voice of a friend urging a quick return to democratic
government.


2. (C) In light of this, the decision to walk away from
COPE TIGER has serious consequences. I was under the
impression that the Deputies planned to talk this week to
reach a policy decision on whether to proceed with our three
major military exercises in Thailand, including COPE TIGER.
On November 30 the EMBASSY sent out a cable (reftel) in which
we made the case for going forward with COPE TIGER, COBRA
GOLD and CARAT as in the U.S. interest after the interim
civilian government had made progress towards drafting a new
constitution and partially lifting martial law.


3. (C) In short, if we cancel COPE TIGER, we will be
sending the Thai mixed messages, and this will not enhance
our ability to encourage a quicker return to democracy.
Nothing has happened so far that cannot be reversed. I
understand that the U.S. team slated to participate in the
Planning Conference remains in Singapore until December 14,
local time. I am convinced that reversing the decision to
cancel our participation in Cope Tiger is the prudent step to
take at this time. I hope you agree. Regards from Bangkok.


BOYCE