THAILAND: MOVING FORWARD WITH THE COPE TIGER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 007386 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR U/S BURNS AND A/S HILL; OSD FOR USDP EDELMAN; NSC FOR DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR CROUCH; PACOM FOR ADM FALLON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MASS TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: MOVING FORWARD WITH THE COPE TIGER EXERCISE REF: BANGKOK 7182 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d) ¶1. (C) I was surprised to learn today that Vice-Chairman Giambastiani has canceled the planned U.S. participation in Exercise COPE TIGER's Final Coordination Conference and Command Post Exercise and ordered the U.S. team now in Singapore to return to its home station. Since this conference is a necessary precondition to the actual air exercise in Thailand, this decision will result in the de facto cancellation of U.S. participation in COPE TIGER. This will be interpreted as imposing additional coup-related sanctions on Thailand. The timing is also awkward, coming shortly after the APEC Leaders Meeting in Hanoi last month where the President told Thai PM Surayud we encouraged the plan to return Thailand to democracy by the end of next year. It is also worth noting that former President Bush and Mrs. Barbara Bush just visited Thailand as special Presidential envoys to represent the United States at ceremonies commemorating the King's 60th anniversary on the Thai throne. These events have generated considerable good will for the United States, and in so doing enhance our credibility with Thais across the board, including our credibility as the voice of a friend urging a quick return to democratic government. ¶2. (C) In light of this, the decision to walk away from COPE TIGER has serious consequences. I was under the impression that the Deputies planned to talk this week to reach a policy decision on whether to proceed with our three major military exercises in Thailand, including COPE TIGER. On November 30 the Embassy sent out a cable (reftel) in which we made the case for going forward with COPE TIGER, COBRA GOLD and CARAT as in the U.S. interest after the interim civilian government had made progress towards drafting a new constitution and partially lifting martial law. ¶3. (C) In short, if we cancel COPE TIGER, we will be sending the Thai mixed messages, and this will not enhance our ability to encourage a quicker return to democracy. Nothing has happened so far that cannot be reversed. I understand that the U.S. team slated to participate in the Planning Conference remains in Singapore until December 14, local time. I am convinced that reversing the decision to cancel our participation in Cope Tiger is the prudent step to take at this time. I hope you agree. Regards from Bangkok. BOYCE