THAI CABINET APPROVES PARTIAL LIFTING OF MARTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007132

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI CABINET APPROVES PARTIAL LIFTING OF MARTIAL
LAW

Classified By: Charge Alexander A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Thai cabinet decided on November 28 to
lift martial law in Bangkok and several other provinces,
although they will retain it for now in the troubled South
and in areas viewed as pro-Thaksin strongholds. Lifting
martial law, particularly in the capital, is welcome, but the
decision to retain it in other areas, while not unexpected,
is disappointing. We will forward a complete list of the
areas remaining under martial law as soon as it is available.
We will continue to press for the full lifting of martial
law at the earliest possible date. End summary.


2. (C) The Thai cabinet today agreed to lift martial law in
Bangkok and 40 provinces, but will exclude at least some
districts of 35 other provinces for now. The government went
further than the Council for National Security (CNS) advised:
CNS head General Sonthi Boonyartglin announced on Monday that
the CNS would recommend martial law be retained in Bangkok,
the South, and a number of provinces which are considered to
be strongholds of support for former Prime Minister Thaksin.
According to news reports, General Sonthi told the press,
however, that it was "up to the government" whether to lift
martial law in Bangkok and other provinces or not.

Half a loaf
--------------


3. (C) The Cabinet announcement today splits the baby.
Lifting martial law but retaining it in the capital, as
recommended by the CNS, would have been very poorly received
by many Thais. At the same time, the government remains
skittish about the activities of ex-PM Thaksin, who continues
to wander about the region, vacationing in Bali and shopping
in Hong Kong. with his every move reported widely here in
Thai media. Contacts across the board - government,
military, NGO, press -- allege that he continues to pay
supporters in the countryside, and maintains the ability to
mobilize a large number of protesters or individuals to
potentially engage in disruptive actions. The decision to
retain martial law in Thaksin strongholds and some border
areas reflects these concerns. (Note: Martial law has been in
effect in some districts of 19 border provinces since 1991;
see note, paragraph 7, for further background.)


4. (C) Both General Sonthi and Prime Minister Surayud are on
public record stating that martial law would be lifted before
the end of the year, including in interviews with
international broadcast media. In addition, PM Surayud told
us that martial law would be lifted in conjunction with the
King' birthday (Thailand's national day) on December 5, and
he conveyed the same message to President Bush on the margins
of the APEC meeting in Hanoi. The decision today may
represent the first step in a plan to phase out martial law,
but the government has not stated this outright, leaving its
plans for lifting martial law in the rest of the country
unclear.


5. (C) Thai society remains split on the issue of martial
law. Some contacts in Bangkok -- even some members of the
opposition parties -- say that martial law has little
practical effect on people, as the government is not actually
enforcing restrictions on gathering, protest, etc. Others,
particularly NGO contacts, are more critical of the
government. Even the normally apolitical Thai Rath newspaper
-- the most widely-read paper in the country -- urged the
government in a recent editorial to end martial law.
(Although the chief reason given was the damage to Thailand's
international reputation, not concerns about limits on
political expression.)

Comment
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6. (C) Bangkok is the center of political activity in the
country, and the decision to lift martial law here will
contribute to a more open political environment. Removing

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this limitation in Bangkok will defuse much of the remaining
internal criticism, since Bangkok politicians and activists
are less likely to press this issue if they are not under
restriction themselves, and with elections much further down
the road. That said, the decision is, on balance, a
disappointing half-measure that makes the CNS and government
seem intimidated by Thaksin's long shadow (and deep pockets).
We will continue to encourage the lifting of martial law in
the remaining areas as soon as possible. End comment.

Note
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7. (U) 19 Thai border provinces have had martial law in
place in some districts ever since 1991, although the
provisions of martial law have not been enforced. Martial
law was declared in these districts by the National
Peace-Keeping Council in 1991, and was renewed in 1998. It
was replaced in the three southern, Malay-majority provinces
by the 2005 Emergency Decree, but remained in effect in the
other districts. This little-known circumstance may further
complicate decision-making on ending martial law; the current
government is unlikely to disturb long-standing security
provisions in the border areas by revoking martial law in
these districts. End note.
ARVIZU