SONDHI'S LAST STAND PEACEFUL, ON TO THE SEQUEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000706

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL TH
SUBJECT: SONDHI'S LAST STAND PEACEFUL, ON TO THE SEQUEL

REF: BANGKOK 00677

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Thaksin-nemesis Sondhi Limthongkul's February
4th rally drew a massive but peaceful crowd to the Royal
Plaza Park in Bangkok. Pro-government thugs and violence
were a no-show. Sondhi delivered his petition outlining
Thaksin's "crimes" and loss of legitimacy to representatives
of the King and reportedly met personally with Army Chief
Sonthi Boonyarataklin to discuss these issues. As expected,
the PM remained defiant throughout the weekend, telling
supporters in Chiang Mai (where he was visiting) that he was
determined not to let "stupid" people unseat him, and stating
during his weekly radio address that the only person who
could push him from office was the King. Buoyed by his
strong showing Saturday, Sondhi has called for another rally
on February 11. Thaksin plans to counter with a major speech
on February 9--his fifth anniversary as PM--outlining all the
good he has done for the country. Rhetoric aside, Thaksin
remains firmly in command, but last Saturday proved that
Sondhi and his allies are not going away anytime soon. End
Summary.

SONDHI-PALOOZA TAKES CAPITAL BY STORM
--------------


2. (SBU) Media mogul and Thaksin-foe Sondhi Limthongkul's
latest effort to rally the public against the Prime Minister
transpired peacefully Saturday night. A massive crowd--press
estimates range from 20,000 up to 100,000 people; we'd agree
with the latter--filled the Royal Plaza Park square from
midday into the wee hours. The diverse crowd, representing a
wide range of ages, provinces and walks of life, entertained
themselves with games of dart throwing at and hopscotch on
the Prime Minister's likeness. Organizers handed out yellow
T-shirts and arm bands with the slogan "save the country."
Merchants traded in an array of products with more colorful
and direct attacks on the PM--many not fit for print in a
family reporting cable. Of note, representatives from labor
groups, anti-electric power privatization, the teachers and
poor farmers were all present.


3. (C) Following a series of pre-game speakers and
entertainers, Sondhi--looking vaguely messianic in his
matching white headband and T-shirt, which stood out in the
yellow-clad crowd--took the stage about an hour after sunset.
The late middle-aged media magnate decried the corruption of
the Thaksin government in newly strident terms and led the
crowd in chants of "Thaksin, get out!" before reading aloud
his petition asking the King to dissolve the parliament and
replace the PM. After asking the crowd to wait patiently,
Sondhi and his entourage of movie-cameras and flag-bearers
strode down the street two blocks to the home of Privy
Council Chairman Prem Tinsulonda to deliver this petition.
(Note. Press coverage focused on whether Prem would be
present to receive the petition--his presence could be seen
as a signal of Palace support for Sondhi. Prem was not
present; an aide received the petition. However, the Sondhi
camp maintains that Prem's implied consent to have the
petition delivered to his house--he could have blocked the
entire ritual if he so desired--is itself a positive sign for
their camp. End Note.)


4. (C) Upon his return to the square at around 2230, Sondhi
took a break as a series of other speakers continued to rail
against the Prime Minister. Shortly after midnight, a video
outlining Thaksin's alleged crimes was played and Sondhi
spoke again. In an intriguing wrinkle, Sondhi reportedly met
with Army Chief Sonthi Boonyarataklin at around this time to
discuss the petition. (Note. General Sonthi has assiduously
avoided any public politicking. End Note.) At around 0730
hours on Sunday morning the crowd sang the King's anthem once
more and peacefully broke up.


5. (SBU) Despite unconfirmed reports that pro-Thaksin groups
would seek to confront Sondhi's masses and provoke a conflict
as they had at previous rallies, the Thaksin thugs were a
no-show. A single heckler was ejected in smooth fashion in
the middle of Sondhi's speech, but the several hundred
uniformed police in attendance had little to distract them
from their boredom.

THAKSIN DEFENDS HIMSELF, DEFIANT AS EVER
--------------

6. (C) Throughout the weekend, the Prime Minister remained
defiant. During his visit to his hometown of Chiang Mai,
Thaksin bluntly told supporters that he will complete his
remaining three years in office, despite the efforts of
"stupid" people. These off-the-cuff comments aside, the
Prime Minister has generated more controversy with his
scripted radio address early Saturday morning. In an
apparent attempt to assert his humbleness, Thaksin stated
that, "it would only take one person to remove me from
office...His Majesty the King. If he whispered to me,
'Thaksin, it's time to go,' I would certainly prostrate
myself at his feet and resign."


7. (C) Anti-Thaksin politicians, including Sondhi and
Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, as well as some
media outlets pounced on this statement, claiming that the PM
had "crossed a line" by directly dragging the monarch into a
political row. Indeed, even some politically neutral Thai
contacts raised an eyebrow at the PM's suggestion, which
could be read as a direct challenge to the King.

AND ANOTHER CABINET RESIGNATION
--------------


8. (C) Following the resignation of Culture Minister Uraiwan
Thienthong on Friday (ref),Technology Minister Sora-at
Klingpratoom--also a member of the dissident Wang Nam Yen
faction of the ruling Thai Rak Thai party--announced that he
would resign from the cabinet as well. Neither has resigned
their seat in parliament. (Note. Faction leader Sanoh
Tientong and his group have long been a thorn in Thaksin's
mega-party flank and appear to be intent on pressuring the PM
to kick them out of the party, which may allow them to keep
their parliamentary seats while forming a new party or
allying with the opposition. End Note.)


9. (C) Members of the Wang Nam Yom faction (not to be
confused with Wang Nam Yen) were quick to deny rumors that
faction member and Labour Minister Somsak Tehpsuthin was also
preparing to resign from the cabinet. In a press conference
at Somsak's house on Sunday, the group pledged their
continued support to the PM.

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKING
--------------


10. (C) Media coverage of the Saturday event was relatively
predictable. Television coverage was spotty. Some channels
downplayed the size of the crowd and no commercial channels
covered the event live. Most television stations gave broad
coverage to the PM's trip to Chiang Mai, however. The
traditionally anti-Thaksin English and Thai-language press
was strident, with some headlines trumpeting that Thaksin's
days are numbered and claiming that Sondhi's rally was
finally allowing the disparate threads of the opposition to
coalesce.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Saturday night was a knock-out for neither side, but
we have to give this one to Sondhi on points. The media
mogul kept his crusade (and reputation) alive to fight
another day while producing the largest demonstration since
the democracy protests of 1992. Thaksin managed to take a
relatively simple statement of reality regarding the King's
authority and turn it into a new opposition weapon against
him. That said, Sondhi's goal (shared by many of the
so-called Bangkok "intelligentsia") of ousting Thaksin
remains elusive. Thaksin's lock on power remains solid, even
if some internal Thai Rak Thai wrangling suggests some
nervousness among his cohorts. So this Saturday's rally is
likely to attract another fairly large turnout. But despite
the bad publicity surrounding the Ample Rich stock sale, it
appears unlikely that Thaksin's critics will be able to
galvanize enough public momentum to alter the political
status quo--assuming, of course, that Thaksin doesn't lose
his cool.
BOYCE