THAI RAK THAI LEADER REPOSITIONING PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006474

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI RAK THAI LEADER REPOSITIONING PARTY

REF: BANGKOK 6366 (CHATURON ON POLITICS)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party needs time to
consolidate in the wake of the September 19 coup, according
to TRT Acting Leader Chaturon Chaiseng. In an October 24
lunch with the Ambassador and EAP DAS John, Chaturon related
that TRT would advocate democracy but would not confront the
coup leaders. He predicted that Thaksin would not return to
Thailand in the near future or seek to run in 2007 elections.
TRT continued to see a net increase in its party membership
and found widespread support and sympathy in the countryside.
Chaturon expected civil society groups, including the
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD),would press the
interim government to meet the one-year deadline for
elections. Chaturon viewed the USG as having taken a
reasonable stance in support of civil liberties. End Summary.

TRT: CRITIQUING, NOT CONFRONTING
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2. (C) Chaturon Chaiseng, Acting Leader of TRT, explained to
the Ambassador and DAS John that he sought to reposition TRT,
focusing principally on the advocacy of democracy and civil
rights. Nevertheless, Chaturon did not want "confrontation"
between TRT and the government; civil society organizations
should take the lead in challenging the government and the
Council for National Security (CNS),while TRT should simply
provide its views from time to time. TRT was revising its
platform; the party would then critique the performance of
the government, the legislature, and the constitution
drafters. TRT remained under scrutiny by the authorities
because of its suspected ties to "underground movements."
Chaturon noted -- but did not take credit for -- the recent
circulation of political leaflets calling for democracy and
civil rights.

TRT CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE MEMBERS
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3. (C) Chaturon said he sought to "calm down" some TRT
figures who wanted to oppose the CNS actively. He also had
to ensure that those who often aired their views to the media
would faithfully represent the party's policies. TRT
continued to experience a net influx of members; in October,
2,000 people quit from the party, but 5,000 joined as new
members. Even in Bangkok the party acquired 700 new members
over the past two weeks, which Chaturon acknowledged as "very
strange." Chaturon admitted TRT would likely shrink but
could afford to lose some members and nevertheless remain
large and influential.


4. (C) TRT retained strong support in Thailand's northern and
northeastern regions, Chaturon said. People both appreciated
the party's policies and felt sympathetic both to TRT and
"especially to Thaksin." Voters had grown accustomed to
being able to select their political leader, and they did not
appreciate being deprived of that right. Chaturon repeated
his prior claim (reftel) that voters in some areas had
threatened not to vote for politicians who desert TRT. The
Democrat Party and Chart Thai might pick up a few seats in
TRT areas, but they would not acquire significant momentum,
he predicted.

THAKSIN TO STAY ABROAD
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5. (C) Chaturon said it would be unwise for deposed caretaker
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return to Thailand in
the near future. Thaksin would not want to return if he were
unable to move freely, without being confronted by hecklers
or approached by admirers. Chaturon believed Thaksin would
"very soon" make it clear that he would not return in the
near future, and that he would not seek to become a candidate
in the next national elections. (Comment: Despite Chaturon's
statements, Bangkok is full of rumors that Thaksin is
threatening to return soon. Chaturon says he is not in
direct contact with Thaksin and may not be the best source on
Thaksin's plans. End Comment.)

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CIVIL SOCIETY, ACTIVISTS TO PRESS GOVERNMENT
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6. (C) DAS John asked whether Chaturon foresaw the interim
government adhering to its timetable for elections in
approximately one year. Chaturon said that the government
had no other choice; it would come under increasing pressure
from NGOs, intellectuals, and the media. Some anti-Thaksin
activists, such as the PAD and especially PAD leader Sonthi
Limthongkul, had already begun challenging the CNS
adversarially. Chaturon said TRT preferred to let these
others remain as the CNS's leading critics, and TRT would not
ally itself with other organizations.

THE SILVER LINING TO RIGHTS RESTRICTIONS
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7. (C) DAS John solicited Chaturon's view of the USG's stance
toward the coup and the interim government. Chaturon said he
believed the USG had taken an appropriate position,
advocating the lifting of martial law and restoration of
civil liberties. Chaturon expressed confidence that the Thai
people would work toward restoring democracy, although he
questioned whether the resulting system would prove
sustainable or just fill another interregnum between coups.


8. (C) Chaturon observed that TRT derived some advantages
from the current restrictions, which precluded the party from
holding a meeting to select new leadership. It would be
better for TRT to form its next Executive Board after the
political situation settled down. Then, TRT could attract
moderates and pragmatists who might not want to associate
with the party at the current moment, when TRT appeared to be
in the government's crosshairs.

REFLECTING ON THE ANTI-THAKSIN MOVEMENT
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9. (C) Reflecting on the widespread discontent with Thaksin
prior to the coup, Chaturon noted some of the activists of
his generation had begun to support extraconstitutional
measures to force Thaksin from office. Some, whom Chaturon
labeled "anarchists," wanted to see Thaksin gone "at any
cost." Chaturon lamented that this sentiment helped pave the
way for the coup. He also believed Thaksin had disregarded
the extent to which people in royalist circles felt
threatened by him. Thaksin's spats with the Privy Council
had helped to unite his opponents, giving them common cause.
Royalists resented Thaksin's direct contacts with the King,
and, consequently, they had spread disinformation about
Thaksin. Chaturon also observed that former Deputy Prime
Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam had often advocated some of the
measures for which Thaksin bore subsequent criticism, such as
his presiding over an April 2005 ceremony at the Temple of
the Emerald Buddha. Chaturon wondered aloud whether Wissanu
sought to set Thaksin up for a fall.

BIO NOTES
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10. (C) Chaturon noted he first came to know Thaksin when
Thaksin served as an advisor to Chaturon's father.
Chaturon's father and Thaksin's father had served together in
the parliament in 1969. Chaturon related that, when he was a
member of parliament from the New Aspiration Party (NAP),he
nevertheless participated in the formation of TRT, but he
decided to remain with NAP rather than become a TRT member at
that time. He said he also had considered forming his own
political vehicle in the late 1990s, but it would have been
difficult for the party that he would have formed to compete
with TRT. Chaturon said he found it difficult to use his
political position to make money and then use patronage to
build up a faction of legislators. He preferred instead to
define himself through his official duties and public
relations. Although he had had direct access to Thaksin, he
did not see himself as a member of Thaksin's inner circle,
and he had not received advance notice from Thaksin of his
fate prior to cabinet reshuffles. He often anticipated
Thaksin would remove him from the cabinet, in which case he
intended to enjoy hobbies such as golf. He also had intended
to study Chinese, if he had spare time.


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11. (U) DAS John did not have the opportunity to clear this
cable.

BOYCE