THAILAND UPDATE: OCTOBER 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 006325 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE: OCTOBER 16 Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Cabinet will discuss martial law on October 17 but appears unlikely to rescind it; a top military official said publicly martial law should be lifted within two months. The Crown Prince, rather than the King, is scheduled to preside over the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) opening ceremony. NGO figures have pressed publicly against the potential selection of a conservative legal expert as NLA President. Deposted caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has expressed interest in returning to Thailand but has been told the time is not yet right. End Summary. CNS DEPUTY: MARTIAL LAW COULD LAST UP TO TWO MORE MONTHS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Thai daily "The Nation" quoted Air Force Commander Chalit Pookphasuk (also the deputy leader of the Council for National Security - CNS) as saying on October 15 that "martial law should be lifted within one to two months." Meanwhile, interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has said that the cabinet would further discuss martial law on October ¶17. However, Surayud did not sound optimistic that martial law would be lifted imminently: "After that, we will inform local and foreign media about how we can accommodate their calls for public rights and liberties," he told the press. Septel reports on Ambassador's discussion with General Sonthi on this issue. CROWN PRINCE TO PRESIDE AT PARLIAMENTARY CEREMONY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn will preside over the opening ceremony of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) on October 20, according to press reports. This will be the first time that the King has not presided over the Parliament opening, according to the press. (Comment: It is unclear whether the King's failure to appear might be interpreted as a signal that he lacks enthusiasm for the new government. We believe the most likely reason the King will not preside is because of his poor health. We also note there has been a concerted effort by the Palace to raise the Crown Prince's public profile recently, most likely in order to improve his image in anticipation of his eventual accession to the throne. End Comment.) EYEING THE ASSEMBLY'S PRESIDENCY -------------- ¶4. (C) The media has given prominent coverage to criticism by NGO figures of the potential selection of legal expert Meechai Ruchuphan as President of the National Legislative Assembly. Meechai, a former Senate Speaker, is widely seen as highly conservative; he was one of the key drafters of the interim constitution, and he also worked on behalf of the clique that conducted Thailand's 1991 coup d'etat. Although the interim constitution provides for a CNS role in appointing the NLA President, CNS Chairman Sonthi Boonyaratglin has stated publicly he will leave the selection of the NLA President to the Assembly members. (Comment: Given that the CNS appointed the Assembly members, almost one-third of whom are current or retired military or police officials, we believe that the Assembly's selection will not run counter to the will of the CNS. End Comment.) THAKSIN INQUIRES ABOUT RETURN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The media has also given prominent coverage to reports that deposed caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra requested in a phone conversation with interim PM Surayud that he be allowed to return to Thailand. Surayud said Thaksin must wait: "(T)he timing must be right, and we have to discuss the details." Separately, Defense Minister Boonrawd Somthas said Thaksin should wait to return until after martial law is lifted. BOYCE