THAI INTERIM PM SURAYUD CHULANONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 006087 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MOPS KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI INTERIM PM SURAYUD CHULANONT REF: A. 04 BANGKOK 2334 ¶B. 02 BANGKOK 5740 ¶C. 00 BANGKOK 8471 ¶D. 99 BANGKOK 11726 Classified By: CDA Alexander A. Arvizu, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Thai interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has a record of advocating military reform including -- ironically -- keeping the military out of politics, policies he strongly supported as Army Chief from 1998 to 2002. He was relegated by then Prime Minister Thaksin to the less important Supreme Commander position in 2002, reportedly in part for resisting Thaksin's Burma policy of "constructive engagement." Surayud has supported USG counter-terrorism goals and Thai participation in multilateral peacekeeping efforts in Afghanistan and East Timor. Almost uniformly, Thai political observers view Surayud as someone who will be able to act independently of the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR): several CDR members are his former subordinates and current CDR leader GEN Sonthi Boonyaratglin is his protege. Surayud enjoys broad respect in Thailand because of his record as a clean and professional soldier. Although he comes to this position with substantial political capital, the real challenge ahead will be whether he has the political skills necessary to navigate the difficult year ahead. We expect that he will give a fair hearing to US concerns. END SUMMARY. WHY SURAYUD? -------------- ¶2. (U) In early 2006, as political protests against Thaksin gained momentum, the Prime Minister's opponents began pressing for the King to intervene under Article 7 of the 1997 Constitution to remove Thaksin from office and appoint a successor. At that time, Surayud's name appeared on top of most short lists of well-respected figures who would be capable of steering Thailand during a period of constitutional reform. ¶3. (C) Why Surayud? He is viewed as a someone who has not promoted his own advancement over the good of the country, someone who is loyal to King and country, and who proved it under the most difficult circumstances. Part of this is due to his personal history. During the 1960's, his father was persecuted by Field Marshal Sarit and ultimately fled to the countryside to join the Communist Party of Thailand. Surayud was in cadet training at that time; he remained in the Royal Thai Army and he went on to distinguished service, including seeing action against the communist insurgents. His story has taken on a iconic quality and contributed to his reputation as someone who favors the peaceful resolution of conflicts in society. ¶4. (C) Surayud also stood out in the corrupt military of the era as a clean and professional officer. His reputation for probity is reportedly what led PM Chuan to choose him for the Army Chief post in 1998, the most important position in the Thai military. Previous embassy reporting documents Surayud's efforts to clean up and professionalize the army. Post reported, "The 1999 reshuffle also illustrated Surayud's continuing commitment to keeping the army "clean" and out of politics." Surayud had sidelined a rising star in the army because he had flouted a policy on travel abroad by general officers and had accepted an expensive trip from a businessman. "Another significant result of the reshuffle list is that the Army promoted fewer officers to the rank of Major General than last year.... Statistics indicate that Surayud is getting serious about trying to reduce the number of generals in the top-heavy RTA." (ref D) ¶5. (C) Ironically, Surayud has long made a point on the need for the military to stay out of politics. One incident from 2000 documents that stance: -- "Royal Thai Army CINC Surayud Chulanont has invited (constitutional scholar) Wissanu to speak at army headquarters on constitutional and government issues several times. At the last session, Surayud, normally soft-spoken according to Wissanu, raised his voice to make sure that everyone in the room could hear as he told Wissanu it was BANGKOK 00006087 002 OF 002 important that military officers see the new constitution offered a variety of ways to effect change and progress. There was no necessity for coups, despite the fact that some of the people in this room think about a coup, 'think about it every day.'" (ref C) ¶6. (U) Surayud also led the RTA to a new level of international responsibility. Under his leadership, the Thai deployed to East Timor, the first Thai participation in international peacekeeping. Surayud advocated for Thai deployment to Afghanistan, overcoming objections within the RTA to make that deployment happen. ¶7. (C) Although Surayud commanded Special Forces soldiers who used violence to disperse pro-democracy protests in May 1992, he denied (publicly and privately, including to an embassy officer) having ordered his troops to move against protesters, and we do not know of any Thais who consider Surayud responsible for the security forces' heavy-handed response. SUPREME COMMANDER UNDER THAKSIN -------------- ¶8. (C) Surayud held the position of Army CINC until 2002, when then-PM Thaksin appointed him Supreme Commander (a position of lesser influence); this demotion of sorts appeared connected to Surayud's disagreeing with Thaksin's accommodative policy toward Burma and efforts to politicize the military. According to post reporting from 2002, a close advisor to Thaksin reportedly "orchestrated a smear campaign in the media" against General Surayud, "planting insinuations in the press that Surayud was kicked upstairs because he was unhealthily 'pro-American.' The purpose of the campaign was to deflect the more widely-held impression the Surayud's wings were clipped over substantive differences with the Thaksin government on Burma policy." (ref B). After a year as Supreme Commander, Surayud reached the mandatory retirement age of 60. Following retirement, Surayud spent a brief period in the monkhood before receiving an appointment to the Privy Council in November 2003. FORMER BOSS OF CNS MEMBERS -------------- ¶9. (C) Numerous Thai political observers have drawn attention to Surayud's former status as a senior of the members of the current CDR. In particular, he has had a mentor-protege relationship with CDR leader and current Army Commander Sonthi Boonyaratglin. For this reason, many Thais believe that the CDR will not overshadow or control Surayud. Surayud also has had a long and close relationship with Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Writing about Surayud, one local newspaper quipped, "past performance is no guarantee of future success." Surayud comes into the PM job with great political capital, but he is likely to have to expend it quickly. He will face decisions and stresses he has never faced before, after having so steadfastly eschewed politics during his career. Based on his track record, we have good reason to believe that he will be inclined to take more positive positions on issues of interest to us, like the South and Burma, as well as wanting to protect civil liberties during the transition. Surayud trained in the US (Fort Leavenworth and Monterey). Given his long relationship with the US, we expect to get a hearing for our concerns, at least. Surayud has the potential to be similar to Anand Panyarachun, the interim prime minister after the last coup, who -- while far from perfect -- earned respect domestically and internationally for shepherding the country through a very difficult time. But Surayud unquestionably has a tough year ahead. ARVIZU