CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR EMERGES AS TOP ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006002 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PASS USTR FOR BWEISEL AND JJENSEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PINS PHUM MOPS ASEC TH SUBJECT: CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR EMERGES AS TOP ECONOMIC ADVISER TO CDR, PUSHES ACTIVIST AGENDA FOR SOON TO BE APPOINTED GOVERNMENT Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Boyce, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a September 28 meeting with the Ambassador, Bank of Thailand Governor Pridiyathorn Devakula stated his intention to be the prime economic adviser to the soon to be appointed interim Prime Minister (reportedly, General Surayud Chulanond). He confirmed the CDR's commitment to stick to the announced timetable for a return to a democratically elected government. The BOT Governor affirmed the military's plans to remain politically active during the interim governing period, arguing that the situation in the Muslim south and the possibility of a Thaksin-inspired countercoup warrant this. In contrast to some, he advocates an activist agenda for the interim government, with the priorities being reform of the government's rice export program; mass transit; an anti-corruption drive; and energy efficiency. ¶2. Pridiyathorn is joined at the hip with the CDR; in speaking of the coup leaders, he repeatedly used the word "we." For the next year or so, Pridiyathorn looks to be Thailand's economic supremo and effective Number Two in the government. The BOT Governor's activist agenda is markedly different from the views of others who have been appointed to the CDR's economic advisory council, who counsel a minimalist approach that would allow a future democratically elected government maximum flexibility in choosing its priorities. End Summary. ¶3. (C) On September 28 the Ambassador (accompanied by Embassy Economic Counselor) met with Pridiyathorn Devakula, Governor of the Bank of Thailand. Pridiyathorn has emerged as the principal economic adviser to the military government (CDR) and has been named as the chair of an economic advisory panel appointed by the CDR. Thai media earlier had tipped the BOT Governor as a leading candidate for appointment by the CDR as Prime Minister. "I Expected A Coup" ¶3. (C) Pridiyathorn said that he had expected a coup: "The situation had developed to an advanced stage, and I along with everyone else was relieved when it (the coup) happened." Even his U.S.-educated son, he said, was relieved ("after we had a talk") that the military had stepped in. 
 ¶4. (C) The Ambassador said that it was important that a Prime Minister be appointed as soon as possible ("preferably now"),and certainly no later than the within two weeks timeframe pledged by the CDR. Pridiyathorn replied that the drafting of the new interim constitution, primarily by prominent legal expert Meechai Ruchupan, is just about complete. This document will be sent to the King for signature "maybe on Saturday (September 30),and then we will appoint a PM." "I Won't Be PM", (But Surayud Will Be) ¶5. (C) Pridiyathorn told the Ambassador, "I won't be the PM." He added, however, "I'll be part of the interim government." Pridiyathorn admitted that he had spoken with the military leaders before the coup: "They came to me and said, 'You're neutral, we want your help.' I don't belong to any political party; I am working for the country." He predicted that Privy Councilor Surayut Chulanond (a retired Army General) would be appointed PM on Sunday (October 1). The Ambassador noted the likely perception and skepticism of the international community in reaction to the appointment by the coup leaders of a retired army general as the new civilian PM. He also stressed the importance of adhering to the 180-day deadline for the drafting of a new constitution and early elections. Pridiyathorn agreed, and stated that the CDR was committed to this timetable. "A Fighter, Not a Thinker" ¶6. (C) The Ambassador noted that everyone he had spoken with regards (coup leader) General Sonthi as a good, honest, straightforward person. Pridiyathorn replied, "Sonthi is a fighter, not a thinker. He sees this as a mission to be accomplished, and then he returns to the barracks." The Ambassador said that he had spoken with former Thai Prime BANGKOK 00006002 002 OF 003 Minister Anand Panyarachun about his experiences when he was appointed as a civilian PM by a military government in the early 1990's: Anand told the Ambassador that the two biggest mistakes that were made during that period were 1) the military appointed Anand but remained in place, and 2) the military, and not Anand, appointed the national assembly. Both of these mistakes, said the Ambassador, now are being repeated by the CDR. Pridiyathorn replied that the appointment of the national assembly will be a joint effort between the CDR and the new PM. As for the military remaining in place, Pridiyathorn said that the CDR "doesn't trust the situation; we are still worried about a countercoup." The Ambassador suggested that the new PM could improve Thailand's image by lifting martial law; Pridiyathorn replied that "Our intelligence shows that the TRT is trying to organize resistance." ¶7. (C) In response to a question from the Ambassador, Pridiyathorn said that the best way to portray the new PM to Washington is that his background and relationship with the CDR will hasten the military's return to the barracks. "This departure from politics," he said, "is everyone's intention." Priorities of the Interim Government ¶8. (C) Pridiyathorn said that he had discussed the possibility of being appointed as PM, but priorities argued against this action: "The economy is easy -- we can grow GDP at 4-5 percent without too much trouble. The main challenges to the interim government will be 1) the risk of a pro-Thaksin countercoup; and 2) the security situation in the Muslim south. I spoke with someone higher than the CDR (Embassy Comment: Privy Councilor Prem?) and told him that it is not right to put an economist at the top. I can be Number Two." Pridiyathorn added that his exact title in the interim government has not been finalized. He will not remain as BOT Governor, but will be replaced by BOT Deputy Governor Tarisa Watanagase. After serving with the interim government for one year, Pridiyathorn said that he planned to retire. ¶9. (C) The BOT Governor outlined a fairly activist agenda for the incoming interim government. He rated four issues as priorities: reform of the rice export program; mass transit; corruption; and energy efficiency. Reform of the Rice Export Program ¶10. (C) Pridiyathorn charged that the previous government's rice export program was rife with corruption, and had been used to buy rural votes. The pre-TRT government had a policy of taking delivery of farmers' rice and paying them 80 percent of the anticipated market value immediately, with the remainder paid when the rice was sold. Under Thaksin's TRT government, the initial payment price was increased, first to 90 percent in 2002, then to 100 percent in 2003, then to 120 percent in 2004, and 130 percent in 2005. According to Pridiyathorn, the payments above 100 percent were used to pay off TRT campaign workers. The BOT Governor said that the highly lucrative terms offered by the government had diverted rice away from export-oriented private buyers, causing Thai rice exports to fall by 25 percent in 2005. Vietnam, he said, now exports almost as much rice as Thailand. The policy had also created a huge (nine million tons) stockpile of rice in government storage facilities. "Now," said Pridiyathorn, "we have to get rid of it before the quality deteriorates, by selling it at a loss." (Comment: While we cannot vouch for the accuracy of Pridiyathorn's specific charges, farm credit experts here acknowledge serious problems and lack of transparency in the government's rice credit payments program. End Comment.) Mass Transit ¶11. (C) Pridiyathorn thinks the interim government must commit to large scale mass transit projects. He acknowledged that the Democrat Party (which controls the Bangkok city government) is opposed, but maintained that "we must convince the public of the need to do this." Corruption BANGKOK 00006002 003 OF 003 ¶12. (C) The BOT Governor said that the interim government will vigorously investigate and prosecute corruption in government dealings, particularly procurements. Energy Efficiency ¶13. (C) Pridiyathorn said that although he had not had a chance to talk with PM-to-be Surayut about the subject, he thinks "he (Sirayud) will agree with me that we have to address energy efficiency." Noting that Thailand ranks by some measures as the most energy inefficient country in the world, Pridiyathorn vowed to reduce Thailand's excessive dependence on trucks and move to multi-modal transport involving trains and containers. While admitting that conversion to a less truck-intensive transport system is a long term project, Pridiyathorn said that a good start could be made in the next 12 months by building container yards next to railroads: "By starting this and other big projects now, we can dictate the future course of Thailand's development." Comment ¶14. (C) Pridiyathorn obviously is joined at the hip with the CDR; in speaking of the coup leaders and their plans, he repeatedly used the word "we." For the next year or so, Pridiyathorn looks to be Thailand's economic supremo. The BOT Governor's activist agenda for the interim government is markedly different from the views of other economic advisory council appointees, who counsel a minimalist approach that would allow a future democratically elected government maximum flexibility in choosing its priorities. BOYCE