THAILAND UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 27

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005949 SIPDIS SIPDIS TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 27 Classified By: DCM Alexander A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Council on Democratic Reform (CDR) says it will announce the interim prime minister on Sunday. Privy Councillor and retired General Surayud Chulanond appears to be the lead candidate again, and many contacts anticipate he will be chosen. The CDR announced the establishment of four advisory councils composed of many respected civil society leaders, perhaps in an effort to co-opt potential critics. If so, the effort did not work; "members" were not consulted in advance and several declined to participate. Several noted jurists who helped draft the interim Constitution have withdrawn from any further role assisting the CDR -- at least, officially -- in response to public criticism of their previous service in the Thaksin government. Former Defense Minister Thamarak appears to "under the control" of the CDR, although staying in his own home. END SUMMARY. INTERIM PRIME MINISTER - GENERAL SURAYUD? -------------- ¶2. (C) Speculation has turned back to Privy Councillor and retired General Surayud Chulanont as the leading candidate to be the interim Prime Minister. Surayud's name has come up repeatedly during the prolonged political crisis of the past year as a possible replacement for Thaksin, particularly when the opposition was pushing for the King to name a prime minister by invoking Article 7 of the Constitution. On the positive side, Surayud is very widely respected across the economic and geographic lines dividing the country. He is unlikely to be viewed as seeking power for himself. The negatives are just as obvious: as a retired General, he is technically civilian, but choosing a retired military officer will not be well-received by the international community. Also, Surayud, as a privy councillor, is also identified with the King, which could complicate efforts by the CDR and other Thai officials to dispel the rumors that the King was behind the coup. Nonetheless, for today, at least, Surayud seems to be the front-runner. The CDR says that they will announce the new PM on Sunday. ¶3. (C) According to a local academic, the CDR tried, and failed, to get Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda to give advice on the PM candidates. According to the professor, Prem would not indicate a preference, but only said that the interim PM should be "brave, honest, and loyal." The professor also opined that Surayud was the most likely candidate, dismissing UNCTAD deputy head Supachai and other candidates as lacking the stature needed to do the job. CDR FORMS ADVISORY BODIES, FAILS TO CONSULT ADVISORS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The media reported that the CDR on September 26 formed four advisory committees, covering economic affairs; foreign affairs; reconciliation and social justice; and ethics, governance, and the prevention of corruption and abuse of power. It appears from both press reports and private conversations with contacts that the CDR did not consult most members before including them on these committees. Academics have substantial representation on the committees, as no less than 32 of the 66 members are professors, assistant professors, or associate professors. Bank of Thailand Governor Pridiyathorn Devakula, rumored as a potential Prime Minister, heads the advisory committee on economic affairs, while MFA Permanent Secretary Krit Garnjana-Goonchorn sits on the advisory committee on foreign affairs. (Comment: Given the plan for a transition in coming days to a new regime under an interim constitution, with the formation of a new cabinet reportedly imminent, it is unclear why the CDR needs to establish these bodies, particularly as some cover subjects reportedly outside of the realm of the CDR,s planned successor body, the Security Council. One possible explanation: the formation of these committees may be intended to co-opt potential critics of the military coup -- or to publicly signal short-listed candidates for the next cabinet. If so, it hasn't worked very well, since several have indignantly refused to serve on the committees. End Comment.) BANGKOK 00005949 002 OF 002 MFA RUMORS -------------- ¶5. (C) A regular MFA contact said that Senator Kraisak Choonhavan, rumored as a longshop candidate for Foreign Minister, is not well regarded among the MFA rank and file. He suggested that most of his colleagues are hoping that either Vitthaya Vejjajiva or Tej Bunnag will be named interim Foreign Minister. Tej, former Thai Ambassador to Washington, Beijing and Paris is regarded by many Thai diplomats as being a serious bureaucrat capable of managing relations with both the United States and China. Both Tej and Vitthaya were placed on the foreign affairs advisory committee (see para 5); Kraisak was not. ¶6. (C) Our source also speculated that several senior diplomats will be hurt by Thaksin's departure. Four who may be affected include AMB Jullapong Nonsrichai, presently the Thai AMB in Beijing, who was supposed to go to London as Ambassador where he was expected to keep an eye on Thaksin's interests; London DCM Bansarn Bunnag, former chief of staff to Surakiart, who was slated to be the next AMB to Burma (Note: He's in trouble for links to Thaksin and for picking Thaksin up in London last week at the airport in a Thai Embassy limo flying the Thai flag); Information Section DDG Maris Sangiampol who had been seconded to Thaksin's staff for some time and who was slated to become an Ambassador without portfolio, and; Piraya Khempol who is former deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai's Chief of Staff and who was also supposed to become a Minister without portfolio. THANKS, AND HERE'S YOUR HAT -------------- ¶7. (U) Several well-known jurists who worked on the draft interim constitution have officially withdrawn from any advisory role for the CDR. Borwornsak Uwanno and his cousin Wissanu Krea-Ngam are both highly respected for their legal acumen, but have been strongly criticized for serving in the Thaksin government. Both resigned in recent months, but apparently not soon enough to salvage their reputations completely. We understand that they will continue to assist with legal advice, behind the scenes. Meechai Ruchuphan, who helped draft previous post-coup constitutions, has also withdrawn from any formal role, in response to public criticism. The draft constitution is already being reviewed by other leading academics, in any case. THREE SCHOOLS BURNED -------------- ¶8. (U) Three schools were burned in Kamphengphet province (northwest of Bangkok) on the night of September 26. Although the press speculates that this was some kind of protest against the coup, our police contacts in the province say they are still investigating the causes. (Comment: Kamphengphet is not a hotbed of pro-Thaksin feeling, and burning schools does not seem like the most obvious way to show displeasure with the coup. The press reaction does demonstrate, again, that fear of some kind of counter-coup is quite widespread, despite the complete lack of opposition to the coup so far. End comment.) WHERE ARE THEY NOW? -------------- ¶9. (C) Several sources confirm that former Defense Minister Thamarak is "under the control of the CDR." According to an MOD source, Thamarak is at his own home, and has been asked to stay there. BOYCE