SNAPSHOTS OF YOUTH REACTION TO COUP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005866

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/PD JESSICA DAVIES, EAP/P KEN BAILES, EAP/MLS MELANIE
HIGGINS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KPAO PHUM TH
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOTS OF YOUTH REACTION TO COUP



1. SUMMARY: Public Affairs officers and PA local staff spoke with 22
Thai high school and university students throughout the country to
gage their reaction to recent events; the majority expressed support
for the military coup. All were grateful that no blood was shed.
While most reasoned that it was the only way forward from the
current political impasse, others were dismayed that democracy was
circumvented. Some expressed appreciation for certain Thaksin
initiatives and most expected Thaksin to return to Thailand
eventually. Students are still sharing information about the coup
with friends despite censorship of media sources (see septel) by
leaders of the Council for Democratic Reform under the
Constitutional Monarchy (CDRM). What follows are snapshots from
telephone interviews with students from pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin
districts around Thailand. END SUMMARY

BANGKOK PERSPECTIVES
--------------

2. Ms. Pornchanok, a 20 year-old political science major at
Thammasat University - one of Bangkok's best public universities -
beamed that the coup was the "nicest in world history." She argued
that Thailand is in trouble and that Thaksin could not solve any of
its problems. Pornchanok echoed the views of other students
interviewed when she said that what is important for Thailand is
what comes after the coup - not the coup itself. She got much of her
information about developments from TV and emails from her friends
and was not particularly upset by censorship of websites by the coup
supporters.


3. Another Thammasat University political science major held the
opposite viewpoint: Ms. Ratchawet, 20, saw no justification for the
coup and argued that the next round of elections scheduled for
November 2006 should have been allowed to proceed. "Now we'll have
to wait for one year," she lamented. Pornchanok admitted that while
she was in the distinct minority on the issue of support for the
coup, she did not feel inhibited to express her views freely in the
classroom. Outside the classroom, she said she would not feel
comfortable doing so.


4. Mr. Anucha, a 17 year-old Muslim student at an Islamic school in
Bangkok, had mixed feelings. He believed that the coup was
necessary and suggested that it was time for Thaksin to "take a
rest." Yet he praised Thaksin's projects, one of which landed
Anucha a scholarship to study at a university in Spain. "I wonder
what will happen to my scholarship under the new government," he
said. He's not betting that the new government will be any better
than Thaksin's but believed it was not good for the country to be
divided any longer.


5. Ms. Wanitcha, a 25 year-old student at Assumption University in
Bangkok, supported the coup and disagreed with international media
coverage of it. Asked what she thought would happen to U.S. - Thai
relations, she stated that the U.S. might look at this as a step
backwards, but eventually "the U.S. will understand why this had to
happen." Wanitcha noted that she is at odds with her family in the
north of Thailand, where her uncle is a prominent Thai Rak Thai
politician opposed to the coup. She said that her parents and
sister, who are farmers, have been beneficiaries of agricultural
subsidies provided by Thai Rak Thai party members. In her view,
those handouts "have made so many farmers lazy."

VIEWS FROM SOUTHERN THAILAND
--------------

6. PAS interviewed students at Prince of Songhkla University (PSU)
in Pattani and at Islamic schools in Nakorn Si Thammarat, both in
the predominantly anti-Thaksin South of Thailand. Few surprises
here; most students signaled that it was time for Thaksin to go
because he couldn't resolve the political stalemate. They also
expressed reservations about what the new government will bring. One
21 yr-old English major at PSU said that she didn't know if Gen.
Sonthi had a hidden agenda, but that she has to believe that the
coup will help solve Thailand's problems. Two PSU students
interviewed at the Embassy's American Corner in Pattani expressed
similar views about the need for Thaksin to go. Neither believed,
however, that Thaksin's absence from the scene would quell the
Islamic insurgency in southern Thailand.


7. A 17 yr old high school senior at an Islamic school in Nakhon Si
Thammarat expressed hope that since General Sonthi is a Muslim, he
might be able to find a solution to the problems in the South.
Another student, Mr. Rathip, 17, from the same school disagreed with
the coup, because "the people do not have a voice now." He said
that the scheduled elections for November 2006 were so close and
should have been allowed to happen. Rathip expressed admiration for
Thaksin's handling of the country's drug problem. However, he
thought that having a new government now might turn out to unite the
Thai people.

THE NORTHERN TAKE
--------------

8. PAS spoke with students at the American Corner at Chiang Mai
University (CMU) in northern Thailand and at Ubon Ratchatani
University (UMU) in northeastern Thailand. Both areas have been
bastions of support for Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party. Opinions
about the coup were mixed. One 22 yr-old female CMU student said
that the political situation had reached the crisis point and she
did not feel very good about the state of democracy in Thailand. She
said that the coup would not solve the problem but that in her
circle of friends no one wanted to speak publicly against it. A 28
yr-old Masters degree student at CMU expressed a similar view,
noting that a new government might get rid of corruption but that a
coup is not a democratic way to solve the country's problems.


9. Two 20 yr-old law students at Ubon Ratchatani University held
opposing views of the coup. Mr. Jakruvut argued that the coup was
not good for Thailand because the economy will worsen and people
would have to wait one year to have a chance to vote for a new
government when the November 2006 elections were just 2 months away.
Jakruvut added that many other students at his school shared his
viewpoint but they did not feel they could speak freely in public.
The second law student, Mr. Winai, supported the coup, calling it
"acceptable" because no one was hurt and because the coup leaders
promised to hold power for only two weeks. Winai added that he and
his parents had long been Thaksin supporters up through the March
2006 elections but the political problems dragged on far too long.
Both Winai and Jakruvut did not like the current decree prohibiting
them from talking politics in groups of five or more people.

COMMENT
--------------

10. Despite attempts by CDRM agents to block websites and email
transmission, Thai youth are certainly tuned in to political
developments and quite willing to express their opinions when asked.
In most cases, their views were not black and white and their
thoughts about the coup and Thailand's fragile democracy are
exercises in cognitive dissonance. Even though they may come from
areas known for either supporting or opposing Thaksin, these
students have formed their own opinions to the point of disagreeing
with their families and friends. What unites them across
geographical distances is a genuine concern with how this suspension
of democracy will shake out.

BOYCE