MILITARY AND PRIME MINISTER FACE OFF OVER MILITARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 005711 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM MOPS ASEC TH SUBJECT: MILITARY AND PRIME MINISTER FACE OFF OVER MILITARY APPOINTMENTS, ALLEGED BOMB PLOT REF: A. BANGKOK 5463 ¶B. BANGKOK 5423 ¶C. BANGKOK 5335 ¶D. BANGKOK 5255 ¶E. BANGKOK 4038 Classified By: CDA Alexander A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The police have arrested more military personnel from the controversial military Internal Security Operation Command (ISOC) in connection with the alleged car bomb assassination attempt against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai opinion is still very divided about whether this was a real attempt to kill the PM, or a fabrication by Thaksin or his supporters. Repeated and contradictory leaks from police sources have undermined the credibility of the investigation. One suspect in custody has apparently confessed to a conspiracy to assassinate the PM, and said that the group of ISOC officers was prepared to stage a coup if the assassination attempt didn't work. However, the confession has been greeted with skepticism, and there are many competing theories about who is behind the car bomb. Thaksin reportedly continues behind-the-scenes to press to put "his" trusted men into important military positions, presumably in response to the heightened threat to him posed by the car bomb and the alleged military role in the assassination attempt. High-ranking military officers are fighting back with open criticism. The drawn-out conflict is making some people nervous. A range of embassy military and political contacts have taken on board our comments about the consequences of unconstitutional action by the military; to a person, they have reassured us that the military's patience has not reached a breaking point. END SUMMARY. ISOC ROLE -------------- ¶2. (C) Thai police have four suspects in custody in connection with the alleged assassination attempt against the Prime Minister; a fifth is free on bail. All the suspects identified so far are from the Internal Security Operation Command (ISOC). Although ISOC is staffed by military personnel, it is not under the Defense Ministry, but rather part of the Prime Minister's office, and the PM is its director. ISOC's current role ostensibly is to focus on fighting against narcotics and strengthening border security (including in the South),but its concrete mission is somewhat unclear. We understand that an effort to "regularize" the status of ISOC was scrapped several years ago, over concerns that ISOC might take on powers too broad, reminiscent of a now-defunct agency with the same name that fought against the Thai communists during the cold war. ISOC's day-to-day operations were run by the Deputy Director, General (ret.) Panlop Pinmanee. Panlop has a colorful history: he fought in the Indochina conflict and boasts of having been involved in RTG units that killed communists during the 1970's. He was involved in a coup attempt against General Prem in the 1980's. In April 2004, he was sacked from his position coordinating the Southern strategy after attacking the Krue Se mosque against the orders of his boss -- one of the bloodiest incidents in the government's anti-insurgency efforts in the South. In sum, Panlop -- who remains popular, is a larger-than-life figure among some of his military colleagues -- is a throwback to the old days with his swagger, blunt pronouncements, and hard-line views. TRUTH? -------------- ¶3. (C) Three of the suspects -- a major general, a colonel and a lieutenant colonel -- have denied any knowledge of the bombing attempt. The driver of the "bomb car" has made confused statements which fall far short of a confession, but do not clarify just what he was doing driving around a car laden with explosives (ref C). One of the suspects, however, has made a confession and a string of accusations that have gotten extensive press coverage. Sgt-Major Chakrit -- who goes by the nickname "Sgt. Giant" -- has reportedly said that a group of ISOC officers (including an unnamed four-star general, and about eight other officers) decided to "end the Thaksin regime." If the bomb didn't work, according to press reports, the conspirators planned to attack Thaksin with an RPG or M79 grenade launcher. If that didn't work, then they'd stage a coup, Chakrit reportedly told the police. (Comment: ISOC would not appear to have the capability to launch a coup. End comment.) Press reports of his BANGKOK 00005711 002 OF 004 statements raised expectations that there would be further arrests of high-ranking officers soon. General Panlop derided Chakrit as a "ding-dong" and the press have painted him as a somewhat disreputable individual. Like many in the military, Chakrit reportedly also works providing "security for entertainment venues," allegedly for the notorious General Trairong (see para 6). Senior police called a press conference on September 11 to deny the widespread press reports that they will shortly be making more arrests, and to ask the press to stop publishing misleading information (Comment: most of it apparently leaked by police sources. End comment). ¶4. (C) From our contacts, we have heard a wide variety of assessments, predictions and guesses, many of them much less partisan than we might expect. A number of high officials, not Thaksin fans, admit to uncertainty about whether the bomb was a serious assassination attempt. Former Cabinet Secretary Borwornsak (ref A) and Privy Councillor General Surayud (ref B),both very knowledgeable insiders, were agnostic. Senior TRT member Suranand -- one of the 'doves' rumored to be on his way out of the party -- also took the middle ground, expressing uncertainty about the origin of the bomb attempt (ref D). A long-time politico and former Thaksin ally, now on the outs with the PM, told us that the officers who were arrested were in fact plotting to kill Thaksin with a car bomb, but the plot still had a long way to go. Thaksin's people found out about it, however, and threw together a fake attempt and then arrested the "plotters." ¶5. (C) While many Thaksin opponents continue to dismiss the bomb out of hand as a fabrication, some have pointed out that Thaksin did seem to be genuinely frightened by the event, which argued for it being a real assassination attempt, or, perhaps, a fabrication set up without his knowledge. Spokesman for the opposition People's Alliance for Democracy, Suriyasai Katasila, somewhat surprisingly asserted that he thought it was a real bomb and a real attempt to kill the PM. He suggested, however, that it was a criminal element that was behind the attempt, noting that Thaksin had made many enemies by championing the war on drugs and efforts to disrupt the illegal lottery. Like almost everyone who thinks it was a real assassination attempt, he expressed concern for the PM's family. He thought that Thaksin's security guards could probably protect the PM, but said, "Thaksin loves his wife and children very much" and would be more worried about the implied threat to them. ¶6. (C) One journalist contact has raised the possibility that the evil mastermind behind the plot was the infamous "Sae Ice," General Trairong Intharathat, an advisor to the Defense Minister and a member of "Class 10" (the officers who studied with Thaksin in the pre-Cadet Academy - ref C). "Sae Ice" has been identified as one of the key figures in the payoff to small parties to run in the April elections -- actions that have put Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in danger of dissolution, and which might have personal consequences for him. He is also a notorious figure, linked to protection rackets, gambling, and other money-making extracurricular activities. (Comment: a number of senior military officers are believed to profit from shady activities, but General Trairong seems particularly tied in to underworld activities. End comment.) It's unclear whether there is any actual evidence against him in the car bomb plot, or whether he just seems like a likely candidate under the circumstances. According to this scenario, General Trairong is paying off "Sgt. Giant" to confess and make the bomb attempt look more plausible, thus winning sympathy for the PM and weakening the position of the military leaders opposing Thaksin. ¶7. (C) A TRT contact predicted to us last week that the investigation would lead to the arrest of a 'four-star general' and that "a businessman who had been disadvantaged" financed the attack. (Comment: in Thailand, crooked police and military are sometimes hired as thugs and hitmen. End comment.) Shortly thereafter, prominent and controversial businessman Prachai Leophairatana publicly denied any involvement in the bomb. Poloff met last week with Prachai, now secretary-general of a new political party. Prachai said that he had issued the denial, even though he had not been named in the press, because some media reports seemed to be aimed at implicating him. Prachai harbors a deep grudge against Thaksin; he had expected the government to help him retain control of his Thai Petrochemical Industry (TPI), which was in financial straits after the 1997 crash. For BANGKOK 00005711 003 OF 004 good reason, he was dubbed Thailand's "most recalcitrant debtor" and fought a long battle to retain control of the company, which he finally lost earlier this year. He is widely believed to be a top funder of the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and other opposition activities. We discussed this particular allegation with a long-time expat journalist here who knew Prachai and his case well. After initially dismissing the idea of any businessman being behind the bomb, the journalist said, "Actually, Prachai is the only one crazy enough to do something like this. And if it was him, he'll keep trying." CONSEQUENCES -------------- ¶8. (C) The first consequence felt from the alleged bombing attempt was on the 'military reshuffle,' the annual exercise in which military officers are rotated to their new positions, including the top jobs (ref C). Thaksin has pressed hard to put "his" supporters (mostly from his "class 10" classmates) into key jobs, according to a wide variety of sources. The warfare between the military and the PM over this issue is out in the open, with play-by-play reports in the press on the conflict. The military reshuffle has been a source of tension in the past when Thaksin wanted to help out certain candidates for jobs (for example, when his cousin became Army Chief in 2004),but most contacts say that the conflict has never before been this open and heated. ¶9. (C) Privy Councillor Prem Tinsulanonda, top of the Thaksin "enemies list," has also been drawn into the fray. After the bomb was discovered, a small group of protesters appeared outside his house, with signs asking Prem to "save Thaksin's life." The strange little protest seemed designed to implicate Prem somehow in the bomb scheme, and in turn aroused a lot of indignation among Prem's supporters. ¶10. (C) The military is also put into a tough position by the continued leaks from the investigation alleging higher level military involvement in an assassination attempt. Relations between the police and military have not generally been very good here. Thaksin's background as a police official has led him to favor the police (for example, when he decided to give them the lead in dealing with security in the South.) Now the police are the vehicle for daily accusations against vaguely identified military officers ("Maj. General S," "General P," and "Col. B" are repeatedly cited as conspirators by the press, in addition to the suspects already arrested). This has prompted some speculation that the military will eventually feel like they have to "do something" about both the reshuffle and the bomb accusations. Normal troop movements earlier this week set off a brief flurry of coup rumors, for example, which still resonate in the local press. Thaksin's protracted absence has also raised concerns. He did not return from the ASEM meeting in Helsinki, instead visiting his daughter in London. He will go on to the NAM in Havana, and then the UNGA. The government spokesman yesterday indicated that Thaksin might not return after that, but could stay abroad for longer. A TRT source told the press that the PM's absence was to "help deter a military coup." (Comment: although it's unclear how his absence deters a coup, rather than facilitates one. End comment.) COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Talking to military contacts and academics, we mostly hear the same analysis about the military's options. Despite some jittery nerves in Bangkok about the bad blood between the military (and the Palace) on one hand, and the police (and Thaksin) on the other, virtually everyone with whom we have spoken does not believe the situation has gotten even close to the point where the military would act. Embassy officials continue to make clear to military and political contacts that any such move by the military would have serious consequences, and would be very counterproductive. We are encouraged by the views expressed by important figures like Privy Councillor Surayud, perhaps the most respected retired senior military officer, who expressed faith in the political process, and who clearly opposed any kind of coup attempt by the military (ref B). Army Commander General Sonthi has also reassured us (ref D) and publicly denied any possibility of a military coup. ¶12. (C) The bomb investigation remains troubling. As the BANGKOK 00005711 004 OF 004 collection of theories above demonstrates, the borders between politics, military, business, and crime are not so clearly drawn here. The police handling of the case, which has seen multiple, often contradictory rumors from "police sources" in the press, has raised concerns that, whatever really happened, the case is now being manipulated for political purposes. As the various rumors recounted above show, no one feels very certain about what is really behind the bomb: a warning? a fabrication? or a serious -- if bungled and borderline comical -- assassination attempt? Given the way the investigation is proceeding, it seems quite possible that we will never know for sure. ARVIZU